Analysis of implementation of China ' s 12th Five Year Plan and prospects of its next five years

Publication Date01 February 2016
Date01 February 2016
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-12-2015-0030
Pages40-59
AuthorShantong Li,Huijiong Wang,JianWu He
SubjectEconomics,International economics
Analysis of implementation of
China’s 12th Five Year Plan and
prospects of its next ve years
Shantong Li
Department of Development Strategy and Regional Economy,
Development Research Centre of the State Council, Beijing, China
Huijiong Wang
Academic Committee of Development Research,
Development Research Centre of the State Council, Beijing, China, and
JianWu He
Department of Development Strategy and Regional Economy,
Development Research Centre of the State Council, Beijing, China
Abstract
Purpose – This paper aims to explore achievements and issues in the implementation of China’s 12th
Five-Year Plan to provide input for the preparation of the coming 13th Five-Year Plan, and also to
provide some messages for the understanding of the Party’s documents of suggestions for the
preparation of China’s 13th Five-Year Plan.
Design/methodology/approach – Eight essential aspects related to economy, society and ecological
environment of the implementation of the 12th Five-Year Plan are analyzed both for the achievements
and issues. Comparative analyses are done through historical data and international comparison.
Findings – It is hoped that the achievements found in the implementation of the 12th Five-Year Plan
will consolidate the condence for establishing an all-round well-off society of China by the year 2020
and issues discovered will be overcome through appropriate measures.
Originality/value This paper will contribute to the understanding of “Suggestions for the
preparation of National Economic and Social Development 13th Five-Year Plan” by the Central
Committee of the Communist Party of China on 29 October 2015, and also the coming 13th Five-Year
Plan, which will be announced in March 2016.
Keywords All round well-off society, China’s development, Medium-term planning
Paper type Research paper
1. Introduction
China has implemented a medium-term (ve-year) planning system to guide its national
development since 1983. Twelve Five-Year Plans have been prepared in the past six
decades. But the nature of the medium-term plan is different between the plans prepared
and implemented pre- and post-1980s. The plans in the former period were mandatory in
nature, while the plans prepared post-1980s are guidance in a sense.
Although some of the countries have abandoned the practice of preparation of
medium-term plans due to the impact of thoughts of economic liberalization, China has
kept her practice of preparation of medium-term plans to guide her development. This
may be one of the factors responsible for the extraordinary economic growth of China in
The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available on Emerald Insight at:
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JCEFTS
9,1
40
Journalof Chinese Economic and
ForeignTrade Studies
Vol.9 No. 1, 2016
pp.40-59
©Emerald Group Publishing Limited
1754-4408
DOI 10.1108/JCEFTS-12-2015-0030
the past several decades. Although, the planning process can be improved further in the
management of a large and complex economy such as China.
Section 2 of this paper will present a brief review of China’s 12th Five-Year Plan from an
academic perspective. The content of this part comes mainly from part of the concluding
report titled “Prospects and Policy Analysis of China’s Economic Social Development in the
Period of 13th Five-Year Plan”. This report is the result of a contracted research project by
the rst author of this paper. Section 3 will give an abstract of essential points of the
document “Suggestions for the preparation of National Economic and Social Development
13th Five-Year Plan” promulgated by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of
China (CCCPC) on 29 October 2015. It is expected that the analysis given in Section 2 will
provide some messages to assist understanding of the content in Section 3. Finally, a brief
conclusion will be given in Section 4 of this paper.
2. Achievements and issues of implementation of 12th Five-Year Plan
Eight aspects of the 12th Five-Year Plan will be discussed and analyzed for their
achievements and issues.
2.1 Economic development has achieved new successful results
Since the implementation of China’s 12th Five-Year Plan, there are new achievements of
social economic development. The overall macro economic target has been
well-achieved. China’s gross domestic product (GDP) increased from 47.31 trillion yuan
in 2011 to 63.6 trillion yuan by the end of 2014. The share of China’s GDP to global total
increased from 10.4 per cent in 2011 to 13.3 per cent in 2014. Therefore, China has also
become one of the engines of growth of the global economy, especially during the period
of global economic crisis since 2008.
Due to the huge amount of China’s population, although the Chinese economy has
been ranked the second in the global economy since 2010, its per capita income is still
low. But China has been transformed from the group of low-income countries to
middle-high-income countries based on the classication of the World Bank (Figure 1).
Dotted line in Figure 1 is change of standard of classication of country groups of the
world based on their income. There are four types of country groups: low-income,
lower-middle-income, high-middle-income and high-income countries. The per capita
gross national income (GNI) of China in the year 2011 was US$4,940, and it is increased
to US$7,380 in 2014. It can be seen from Figure 1 that China has been stepped from the
low-middle-income countries group to high-middle-income countries group in the year
2010. Further effort is required for China to step into the high-income countries group.
2.2 Restructuring of the economy has been achieved to a certain extent, but there is a
further need to optimize the structure of the component sector
The structure of the Chinese economy has been improved to adapt to its stage of
development. The share of components of GDP of the supply side was 9.2 per cent:42.6
per cent:48.2 per cent (P:S:T) in 2014. The share of the service sector has surpassed the
secondary sector, and there is further strengthening of the manufacturers.
2.2.1 Current status of the manufacturing sector. The capacity of production of the
manufacturing factor is further strengthened, but there is serious overcapacity of many
subsectors. The sales income of the Chinese manufacturing sector exceeded 90 trillion
yuan in 2012, and its value added reached around 20 trillion yuan, a share of 20 per cent
of global manufacturing value added. It is claimed in the “China Industrial Economic
41
China's 12th
Five Year
Plan

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