Autocratic welfare programs, economic perceptions, and support for the dictator: Evidence from African autocracies

DOI10.1177/0192512119897387
Published date01 June 2021
Date01 June 2021
Subject MatterResearch Articles
https://doi.org/10.1177/0192512119897387
International Political Science Review
2021, Vol. 42(3) 416 –429
© The Author(s) 2020
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DOI: 10.1177/0192512119897387
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Autocratic welfare programs,
economic perceptions, and
support for the dictator: Evidence
from African autocracies
Kangwook Han
Michigan State University, USA
Abstract
While numerous studies have explored the foundations of autocratic stability by focusing on macroeconomic
variables, the micro-foundations of autocratic support have largely been overlooked. Using Afrobarometer
survey data from 22 African autocracies, I examine how dictators stabilize their rule even during economic
recessions. I find that the provision of welfare benefits alleviates the adverse impact of negative economic
perceptions on support for the dictator. Citizens are likely to continue supporting the dictator as long as
the government keeps providing universal welfare benefits. The results remain robust to different model
specifications that account for alternative explanations and validity concerns associated with autocratic
survey data.
Keywords
Welfare policy, economic voting, authoritarianism, African politics, multilevel model
Introduction
In January 2018, the Sudanese government eliminated wheat subsidies and devalued its currency
in an attempt to alleviate its budget deficit. These actions induced a shortage of cash, and the prices
of necessities skyrocketed. As inflation reached over 50%, bread prices doubled, and Sudanese
citizens suffered from severe shortages of basic commodities (Abdelaziz, 2018). On 19 December
2018, public anger over hyperinflation triggered a wave of popular protests, which transformed
into nationwide anti-regime demonstrations demanding the resignation of President Omar al-
Bashir. Al-Bashir was ousted by the military on 11 April 2019, ending his 30-year grip on power.
Corresponding author:
Kangwook Han, Department of Political Science, Michigan State University, 228 South Kedzie Hall, 368 Farm Lane, East
Lansing, MI, 48824, USA.
Email: hankangw@msu.edu
897387IPS0010.1177/0192512119897387International Political Science ReviewHan
research-article2020
Research Article

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