Bsp-Overall BOP Position to Post Modest Surpluses in 2021 and 2022.
ENPNewswire-September 20, 2021--Bsp-Overall BOP Position to Post Modest Surpluses in 2021 and 2022
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Release date- 16092021 - ?The Monetary Board approved the new set of 2021 and 2022 balance of payments (BOP) projections during its 16 September 2021 meeting.
This latest set of BOP projections revisits the forecasts released on 18 June 2021 to incorporate available data as well as recent emerging developments.
The current 2021 BOP assessment takes on a more guarded view of global and domestic economic developments going into the remaining months of the year. While global growth forecasts have been relatively unchanged from earlier estimates, domestic growth prospects have been scaled down (i.e., 2021 Philippine GDP growth target was revised to 4-5 percent from 6-7 percent), with risks elevated in both spheres. Two key risks have affected the latest external sector assessment. One is the rapid spread of the more transmissible COVID-19 Delta variant which led to recent spikes in infection cases and prompted enforcement of more austere mobility restrictions. Second is the supply and logistical issues in vaccine administration rendering the achievement of herd immunity more elusive and delaying plans to further open economies. Nonetheless, the continued strong government policy support alongside a more targeted implementation of quarantine measures is expected to help the Philippine economy gradually carve a path towards a safe recovery.
For 2022, global and domestic economic activities are expected to fare better with recovery more firmly underway on expectations of containedCOVID-19 cases as most economies have inoculated a greater share of their population. The projected sustained strengthening of advanced economies in 2022 bode well for the country's prospects for trade and investments as well as overseas Filipinos (OF) remittances. Wider global distribution and administration of vaccines by next year are likewise expected to provide a boost to international travel. The level of optimism continues to be guarded, however, as the recovery in both external and domestic demand remains fragile and depend largely on the reach of mass vaccination and effectiveness of policy support.
In view of the foregoing, the projected 2021 BOP surplus was revised downward to US$4.1 billion (1.1 percent of GDP) from the US$7.1 billion (1.8 percent of GDP) earlier projected. The narrower BOP surplus reflects the...
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