CBA-Australian dollar depreciation remains likely following Jackson Hole meeting.
ENPNewswire-August 31, 2021--CBA-Australian dollar depreciation remains likely following Jackson Hole meeting
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Release date- 30082021 - CBA economists see labour force data and the spread of the COVID delta strain in the US determining a possible announcement of asset purchase tapering by Federal Open Market Committee on 22 September.
Commonwealth Bank's (CBA) Global Economics & Markets Research team continue to forecast a weaker Australian dollar/ US dollar exchange rate, despite the AUD strengthening after last week's meeting of central bankers at Jackson Hole in Wyoming.
CBA Head of International Economics Joe Capurso said: 'Our currency forecasts remain unchanged and we still think AUD can temporarily dip below $US0.70. A commencement of tapering of bond purchases by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), weakening Chinese economic growth, a negative Australia/US bond spread and falling commodity prices are all expected to weigh on the AUD/USD rate over coming months.'
There was modest reaction in financial markets following a much anticipated speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole, which contained no surprises but was more dovish than expected around inflationary pressures. The US fixed income curve steepened slightly and yields declined across the board following the meeting.
Mr Capurso said the FOMC was expected to announce a tapering of bond purchases at its next meeting in late September, but that US non-farm payroll data this Friday 3 September and the spread of the delta strain of COVID in the US could be key factors determining an announcement.
'Chair Powell's comments at Jackson Hole were very close to our expectations and none of our views have changed as a result. On tapering of the FOMC's asset purchases, he said the 'substantial further progress' test has been met...
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