A Sea Change in British Politics?
| Published date | 01 June 2024 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/20419058241260780 |
| Author | Peter Geoghegan |
| Date | 01 June 2024 |
JUNE 2024 • POLITICAL INSIGHT 3
A Sea Change in
British Politics?
As general announcements go,
they don’t come much flatter
than Rishi Sunak’s. In late
May, the Prime Minister stood
alone at a lectern outside Downing Street
as the rain poured down on a dismal day
in London.
As an increasingly soggy PM listed
his various achievements in office, a
loudspeaker played ‘Things Can Only Get
Better’ – the theme song of Tony Blair’s
victorious New Labour campaign in 1997.
The polls suggest things could get
even worse for Sunak. The Conservatives
have been consistently 20 points or more
behind Labour for months. More than
100 Tory MPs have decided to step down
before the election.
The Tories’ challenge in this election, in
part, reflects deeper political changes. In
this week’s cover feature, Jamie Furlong
and Will Jennings report on the shifting
electoral geography of England and
Wales.
Furlong and Jennings explore both
how the places that vote Conservative
and Labour have changed over the 40
years but also why both parties ‘over-
achieve’ in some places compared with
expectations based on demographics
alone.
If Keir Starmer’s Labour does win on 4
July, it is likely that the party’s support
will be consolidated in areas with
high numbers of younger graduates
and professionals – exactly the sorts
of demographic that used to vote
Conservative.
Sunak might be heading for defeat but
even if he does go, he will leave behind
some major problems. As Phil Swann
reports in the Last Word, English councils
are in crisis. Many councils are either on
the brink of bankruptcy or already out of
cash – and easy solutions are thin on the
ground.
Equally, over the length of Sunak’s
tenure net zero has gone from a
bi-partisan effort to a political football,
with the Conservatives reversing key
climate pledges in recent months.
In the regular In Focus slot, Benjamin D.
Hennig explores the changing politics of
Britain’s net zero commitments and finds
that Britain risks no longer being seen
as a global climate leader – and missing
out on the much-needed economic
transformation that could come with
a place at the forefront of climate
innovation.
Sunak promised to put Britain at
the front of the Artificial Intelligence
revolution – and even had a cosy fireside
chat with Tesla boss Elon Musk. But
Jennifer Cobbe argues that while political
leaders focus on speculative risks of
future tech dystopia, AI is already causing
problems that are frequently ignored.
How might a Labour government
deal with these myriad challenges? Six
decades on from Harold Wilson’s first
election victory, Kevin Hickson and Ben
Williams reflect on his time in office
and ask what Starmer could learn from
Wilson’s legacy.
The General Election is likely to be
a busy time for the political studies
community, with familiar academic
faces and voices on TV, radio and in the
newspapers. But how can an academic
start engaging with the media? And what
factors should you consider before saying
‘yes’ to a press request? Stephanie Luke
and Kate Dommett have some top tips.
The future of the Conservative Party is
likely to emerge as one of the big post-
election themes. The Tories have long
shown a remarkable durability, putting
party unity over almost all other concerns.
But with polls showing the
Conservatives facing electoral disaster –
and increasingly visible splits between
the Tory Right and One Nation centrists
– what does the future hold for the
dominant party of British politics? Emily
Jones investigates.
Away from the UK, as the war in
Ukraine enters its third year, Vladimir
Putin’s regime in Moscow has become
increasingly authoritarian. Any semblance
of democracy has been snuffed out.
Draconian laws punish any dissent.
Natasha Lindstaedt charts Russia’s plunge
into authoritarianism.
John E. Owens reports from the
United States where a Republican Party,
umbilically tied to Donald Trump, has
subverted democratic norms and taken
advantage of biases in the US political
system to exercise a stranglehold on
power in much of the country.
Finally, Richard Rose examines the
state of people’s welfare across the globe
and finds reasons to be cheerful – but
also major challenges ahead. Elsewhere,
Daniel J. Bowman and Matthew
Hepplewhite report on how academics
can engage policymakers in their work.
The coming weeks will be dominated
by political campaigning. Whatever
happens on 4 July,
Political Insight
will
be there, bringing you expert research,
analysis, and commentary on the issues
that matter.
Peter Geoghegan
Editor
Political Insight June 2024 BU.indd 3Political Insight June 2024 BU.indd 3 23/05/2024 15:2823/05/2024 15:28
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