China: the next ten years?
| Published date | 17 June 2013 |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1108/JCEFTS-04-2013-0019 |
| Date | 17 June 2013 |
| Pages | 91-96 |
| Author | R. Miniesy,J. Adams |
| Subject Matter | Economics,International economics |
China: the next ten years?
R. Miniesy and J. Adams
Department of Economics, The British University in Egypt, Cairo, Egypt
Abstract
Purpose – This paper aims to be a “thought piece”. It is not based upon rigorous empirical research
supported by focused economic theory. Rather it presents a view of where China is likely to see its
economic expansion under a new leadership and at the same time how Egypt could be very much part
of this.
Design/methodology/approach – The authors have set out a number of arguments that show the
potential for stronger economic relations between these two economies over the next decade. These
include arguments for a change by both countries in their traditional export market focus towards the
EU and the USA.
Findings – Specific sectors are identified as the key strategic areas in which both could and should
cooperate while it is also emphasised that Egypt is now viewed as a 3G country (one of only 11) that
China could benefit from due to its location at the nexus of three continents. The paper is to some
extent “crystal ball” gazing but within the context of available information and a set of forecasts that
are not themselves unrealistic.
Originality/value – The paper argues that China’s future growth options are in fact connected to
those of Egypt in several respects and both countries can mutually benefit from the suggestions made
in the paper.
Keywords Economic growth,International cooperation, China,Egypt
Paper type Conceptual paper
Introduction
This coming March at the Annual Parliament session in Beijing the formal transfer of
power to China’s new leadership will take place. The new President, Xi Jinping and his
Politburo members will lead the country for the next ten years. This paper is a
“thought” piece on where China will derive its growth in the next ten years and what
this could mean for the economy of Egypt.
Two obvious questions that arise of course are:
(1) Why would or should anyone be interested in China’s economic future in
relation to just one developing economy?
(2) Why in relation to Egypt specifically?
When we write, discuss, debate or crystal ball gaze on all matters concerning China we
tend to think on the global scale – the shifting of trade to the Pacific, the world’s
manufacturing “hub”, China’s global trade surplus, the global transfer of jobs, the
Renminbi-US dollar “debate” and many other “big ticket” issues.
However, a focus on China vis-a-vis specific country economic relations will often
provide deeper insights into how the future is likely to develop between China and a
whole host of specific economies. And the focus on Egypt has very strong justifi cations.
First and foremost Egypt is already China’s third largest export market in the whole of
the African continent after Nigeria and South Africa.
In 2011 China’s merchandise exports amounted to US$5.4 billion while exports from
Egypt to China were worth US$1.5 billion. This represents a 26 per cent increase from
The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available at
www.emeraldinsight.com/1754-4408.htm
Journal of Chinese Economic and
Foreign Trade Studies
Vol. 6 No. 2, 2013
pp. 91-96
qEmerald Group Publishing Limited
1754-4408
DOI 10.1108/JCEFTS-04-2013-0019
China: the next
ten years?
91
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