Conditional effects of development aid on political perceptions: mixed-methods evidence from North-East Afghanistan

AuthorAlexander De Juan,Jan Koehler,Kristóf Gosztonyi
Published date01 September 2020
Date01 September 2020
DOI10.1177/1354066119883686
https://doi.org/10.1177/1354066119883686
European Journal of
International Relations
2020, Vol. 26(3) 793 –819
© The Author(s) 2019
Article reuse guidelines:
sagepub.com/journals-permissions
DOI: 10.1177/1354066119883686
journals.sagepub.com/home/ejt
E
JR
I
Conditional effects of
development aid on political
perceptions: mixed-methods
evidence from North-East
Afghanistan
Alexander De Juan
Universität Osnabrück, Germany
Kristóf Gosztonyi
Berghof Forschungszentrum für konstruktive Konfliktbearbeitung, Germany
Jan Koehler
Freie Universität Berlin, Germany
Abstract
Can aid create political trust in conflict-affected states? International aid organizations
often argue that supporting states in providing basic services can contribute to
strengthening state–society relations. Previous studies in international development
have indicated that the provision of basic services can indeed improve people’s attitudes
towards state institutions. We take this research a step further: in addition to analysing
the impact of aid on political trust, we assess how violence influences this effect. We
argue that aid can create opportunities for constructive state–society interactions. As
violence increases, however, development-related interactions are crowded out by
security-related ones. Violence also fosters corrupt aid governance, which undermines
the positive effects of aid on public perceptions. We analyse this hypothesis with a mixed-
methods research design that combines original opinion survey data with qualitative
interview material systematically collected in 252 villages of northeast Afghanistan.
Based on a combination of (a) quantitative analyses, (b) a comparison of most-similar
villages, (c) a systematic comparison of qualitative survey response patterns across
Corresponding author:
Alexander De Juan, Universität Osnabrück, Seminarstraße 33, Osnabrück 49074, Germany.
Email: alexander.dejuan@uni-osnabrueck.de
883686EJT0010.1177/1354066119883686European Journal of International RelationsDe Juan et al.
research-article2019
Article
794 European Journal of International Relations 26(3)
levels of insecurity, and (d) an in-depth analysis of interview material on aid and trust in
highly insecure areas, we show that violence negatively impacts the relative relevance as
well as the quality of aid-related state–society interactions. These findings indicate that
international aid agencies should refocus from mainly output-oriented project appraisal,
design, and monitoring to a stronger process orientation that maximizes state–society
interaction and prevents elite capture in areas exposed to high levels of violence.
Keywords
Afghanistan, aid, political trust, violence, development, governance
Introduction
It has become a key priority of international aid agencies such as the World Bank or the
United Nations Development Programme to strengthen state capacity and state–society
relations in conflict-affected countries. Supporting the delivery of basic services is at the
heart of this strategy. Thus, many international development projects in conflict-affected
states are motivated by the assumption that the provision of basic social services can help
improve people’s attitudes towards state institutions. This rationale reflects the idea that
the state’s ability to provide services has a direct impact on people’s living conditions
and thereby shapes judgements on whether the state cares for the needs of the population.
Increasing political trust is then thought to translate into positive effects on a series of
behavioral outcomes that are highly relevant for the process of peace-building and state-
building, such as the acceptance of political reform and change, compliance with state
rules and regulations, or tax deference (De Juan and Pierskalla, 2016).
A number of previous studies have investigated this assumption. Most have painted a
cautiously optimistic picture: the ability to effectively provide populations with services
such as education, water, electricity or access to health care appears to improve people’s
confidence in state institutions (Askvik, 2008; Gilley, 2006; Levi et al., 2009). However,
relatively few analyses in international development have focused explicitly on conflict-
affected states (Beath et al., 2015; Berman et al., 2013; Guerrero, 2011). These studies
support arguments on the positive effects of development cooperation on political per-
ceptions, but they also hint at a highly relevant conditionality: positive effects seem to
materialize only in situations of relative stability and security (in relation to the respec-
tive overall conflict context).
This latter finding has important theoretical and policy implications, considering that
arguments on the potential state-building contribution of service delivery focus strongly
on highly violence-affected societies. Nonetheless, the role of insecurity as a condition
variable has not yet been systematically theorized or investigated empirically. It remains
unclear how exactly violence may dampen the effects of aid on political trust. Our lim-
ited understanding of these mechanisms prevents the identification of remedying meas-
ures and the design of more effective aid interventions in conflict-affected states.
The present paper helps to fill this gap. Combining the arguments and findings of
previous studies, we first suggest a concrete mechanism for the moderating effects of

To continue reading

Request your trial

VLEX uses login cookies to provide you with a better browsing experience. If you click on 'Accept' or continue browsing this site we consider that you accept our cookie policy. ACCEPT