Could Boris Johnson’s Blue Wall Fall?

AuthorTim Bale,Aron Cheung,Alan Wager
Published date01 December 2021
Date01 December 2021
DOIhttp://doi.org/10.1177/20419058211066407
DECEMBER 2021 POLITICAL INSIGHT 3
Could Boris
Johnson’s Blue
Wall Fall?
Boris Johnson is often said to
be a lucky general. The Prime
Minister assumed control with the
Conservatives at a record low in July
2019. The party had polled just 8.8 per cent in
the European elections two months earlier.
In the General Election that December,
Johnson faced a Labour Party led by an
unpopular leader, struggling to dene a
position on the issue of the day: Brexit.
Johnson came away with a ‘stonking victory’
and an 80-seat Tory majority.
Since then, Johnson has often seemed as
if he’s made of Teon. Everything from the
failures of the pandemic response to post-
Brexit problems, have washed o Britain’s
Prime Minister.
But recently there have been signs that
Johnson’s good luck might be turning.
Allegations of sleaze and corruption have
dented his support. An ill-fated move to try
and axe Parliament’s standards watchdog
left even some of the Prime Minister’s own
backbenchers privately expressing concerns
about their leader’s fallibility.
Boris Johnson’s electoral success was built
on winning ‘Red Wall’ seats. Many of these
once solidly Labour constituencies turned
Conservative blue at the last General Election.
But some Tories in traditionally
Conservative seats are worried. The Liberal
Democrats’ surprise win in the Chesham
and Amersham by-election earlier this year
sparked concerns that this so-called ‘Blue Wall’
could be under threat.
In this issue’s cover story, Alan Wager, Tim
Bale and Aron Cheung investigate the status
of the Conservative Blue Wall and examine
the possibility of it being breached at the
next General Election.
Johnson has shown that he is more than
willing to pick a ght with the European
Union. Indeed, over the course of the past
year relations between London and Brussels
have been characterised by tensions and
diculties.
As we head into the now traditional
Christmas row between the UK and the EU,
Amelia Hadeld and Christian Turner ask if
such spats will become a recurring feature of
post-Brexit life.
Another feature of Johnsonian
Conservatism is the emergence of an
increasingly strident form of unionism. The
Prime Minister has already promised to
defend the Union’s integrity and refuse any
future referendum on Scottish independence.
Johnson – like many of his Conservative
colleagues – appears increasingly hostile
to devolution itself. But, asks Ciaran Martin,
can the Union survive this new, muscular
unionism?
In our regular Last Word feature, Justin
Fisher examines one of Johnson’s other
agship policies – a new Elections Bill – and
nds some concerning issues with the new
legislation, including increased political
control of the Electoral Commission and new
restrictions on ‘third party’ organisations that
campaign, but do not stand for election.
Johnson often seems keen to exploit
supposed culture war divisions. Indeed, media
stories about generational tensions between
‘woke’ young people and ‘boomers’ abound.
But, argues Bobby Duy, if we look
beyond the headlines, we nd a far more
complex picture, with social attitudes shifting
dramatically over the past 40 years. In a similar
vein, Paula Surridge looks at the faultlines
in British politics and nds that simplistic
assumptions about the electorate being
neatly divided by Brexit belie a far more
complex reality.
Elsewhere, Andrew Roe-Crines asks what
Sir Keir Starmer needs to do to turn Labour’s
fortunes around, and Paula Keaveney looks at
the political history of cabinet reshues and
asks if reshues really change anything.
Away from the UK, Richard Johnson looks
at Joe Biden’s rst year in oce. The President
has promised to ‘build back better’ in the
wake of the pandemic. Could Biden be about
to realise Roosevelt’s ambitions to remake
America?
Internationally, Biden has not always had
things his own way. In August, the US’s
chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan brought
a 20-year-old invasion to an end. Former
British diplomat Rodric Braithwaite, looks back
at Afghan history and argues that foreign
attempts to intervene in Afghanistan are
doomed to failure.
In the regular In Focus feature, Benjamin D.
Hennig maps September’s German Federal
Election. The result saw some gains for smaller
parties and the Social Democrats emerge as
the biggest party, but the future of German
politics after Angela Merkel remain deeply
uncertain.
As another tumultuous political year comes
to a close, I would just like to say a huge
thanks to all of our readers.
Political Insight
will continue to deliver the very best research,
comment and analysis on the major political
issues of the day.
Peter Geoghegan
Editor
Political Insight December 2021 BU.indd 3Political Insight December 2021 BU.indd 3 18/11/2021 14:1918/11/2021 14:19

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