Could Brexit Break up the UK?
| Author | Kevin Meagher |
| Date | 01 April 2017 |
| DOI | 10.1177/2041905817702732 |
| Published date | 01 April 2017 |
16 POLITICAL INSIGHT • APRIL 2017
Brexit was supposed to be about
leaving one union – the European
Union – but could it split apart
another, the United Kingdom?
Scotland remains semi-detached following
the 2014 referendum on independence.
Powersharing in Northern Ireland has faltered.
A brooding resentment at iniquitous funding
differentials between the English regions
and the devolved bodies is an emerging sore
point.
This is not to say that, in and of itself, Brexit
is capable of seeing off the United Kingdom.
But leaving the European Union could prove
to be an accelerant poured over the dry
tinder of a British constitution that is over-ripe
for reform.
At the very least, Brexit makes handling
these difficult issues even harder. Moreover,
the changes it could augur – an independent
Scotland, a united Ireland and a federal
England – will hardly be welcomed by many
arch-Brexiteers.
Scotland
While narrowly rejecting the option of
independence in September 2014 by 55 to 45
per cent, Scotland looks certain to revisit the
whole experience in the next few years. The
Scottish government has already published
a consultation on a bill paving the way for a
second referendum on independence, while
the Scottish National Party (SNP) prepares its
war chest for the next assault on ‘liberating’
Scotland from the 1707 Act of Union.
We know the game is afoot because
Scotland’s First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon,
has claimed independence might not be
necessary if Theresa May delivers a ‘soft’ Brexit
by 2019. Sturgeon surely recognises the
dichotomy between a hard and soft Brexit
is utterly subjective. ‘Brexit means Brexit’ as
Theresa May has repeatedly pointed out,
with some parts of the country and economy
benefiting and others losing out, with little
neat symmetry. So Theresa May’s speech
of 17 January setting out for the first time
Could Brexit
Break up the UK?
Will the UK be unable to stop at breaking away from one supra-
national amalgamation of nation states? Kevin Meagher investigates.
that Britain will leave the single market, is
grist to Sturgeon’s strategy of portraying an
unyielding Conservative Government strong-
arming Scotland out of its rightful place in
the EU.
Cynical, perhaps, but potent, too. Brexit
has reenergised Scottish independence
and the former First Minister, Alex Salmond,
has even been as bold as to suggest a
second plebiscite might be held in autumn
2018. In line with a post-Brexit prediction
from investment bank, JP Morgan, which
advised its clients that it expected to see an
independent Scotland by 2019.
Moreover, the SNP’s bridgehead from 2014
seems intact, with a recent poll reporting
support for independence is still where it was
at the time of the referendum at around 45
per cent. But this is now allied with the SNP’s
utter dominance of the political landscape in
Scotland following their strong performances
in both the 2015 General Election and 2016
Scottish Parliamentary elections.
Westminster is left taking comfort that
support for independence is no higher
than it was in 2014. Of course, another
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