Could rebel child soldiers prolong civil wars?

AuthorTobias Böhmelt,Roos Haer
Published date01 September 2017
Date01 September 2017
DOIhttp://doi.org/10.1177/0010836716684880
Subject MatterArticles
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684880CAC0010.1177/0010836716684880Cooperation and ConflictHaer and Böhmelt
research-article2017
Article
Cooperation and Conflict
2017, Vol. 52(3) 332 –359
Could rebel child soldiers
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https://doi.org/10.1177/0010836716684880
DOI: 10.1177/0010836716684880
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Roos Haer and Tobias Böhmelt
Abstract
While we know why rebels may recruit children for their cause, our understanding of the
consequences of child soldiering by non-state armed groups remains limited. The following
research contributes to addressing this by examining how rebels’ child recruitment practice
affects the duration of internal armed conflicts. We advance the argument that child soldiering
increases the strength of rebel organizations vis-a-vis the government. This, in turn, lowers the
capability asymmetry between these non-state actors and the incumbent, allowing the former to
sustain dispute. Ultimately, the duration of armed conflicts is likely to be prolonged. We analyse
this relationship with quantitative data on child soldier recruitment by rebel groups in the post-
1989 period. The results confirm our main hypothesis: disputes are substantially longer when
rebels recruit children. This work has important implications for the study of armed conflicts,
conflict duration and our understanding of child soldiering.
Keywords
Child soldiers, civil war, conflict duration, event history models
Introduction
Child soldiering is not a new phenomenon (Wessells, 2006), but its practice has altered
dramatically over the last few decades (Brett and McCallin, 1998). The number of chil-
dren involved in conflict is growing, and their contribution has changed as they are often
used as active belligerents in war, instead of being only recruited for supportive functions
such as cooking or carrying loads (Gates, 2011: 31; Gates and Reich, 2010; Machel,
1996; Maclure and Denov, 2006: 119; Singer, 2006).1 Clearly, child soldiering is a severe
case of the deprivation of children’s human rights, and it is important to advance our
understanding of its determinants and consequences in order to provide politicians and
public institutions with a more systematic foundation for decision-making that can effec-
tively address this problem.
Corresponding author:
Roos Haer, International Relations and Conflict Management, University of Konstanz, P.O. Box 90, 78457
Konstanz, Germany.
Email: Roos.vanderHaer@uni-konstanz.de

Haer and Böhmelt
333
Although state military organizations also make use of children, this study focuses
on the consequences of rebel groups’ child soldiering, as rebels usually have fewer
constraints in, and more to gain from, using child soldiers (Tynes and Early, 2015).2 We
argue that rebel groups’ use of children additionally helps to explain the duration of civil
wars. There is anecdotal evidence that suggests that child soldiering might indeed affect
conflict duration. Brett and McCallin were some of the first to argue that ‘the continu-
ous involvement of child soldiers in war can be a cause of further deterioration in the
security situation in future…. The extensive involvements of children as combatants
may in itself be a significant factor in prolonging the conflict’ (Brett and McCallin,
1998: 37). However, Achvarina and Reich conclude that there is ‘little relationship
between duration and the use of child soldiers in cases where we were definitive about
their use’ Achvarina and Reich (2006: 143). While these works provide some initial
insights and a starting point for our study, a more systematic analysis, which goes
beyond single case studies (Singer, 2006) or research on constrained samples of child
soldier cases alone (Achvarina and Reich, 2006), is necessary to thoroughly understand
the relationship between child soldiering and conflict duration. To this end, the next
section discusses the previous literature on child soldiering and conflict duration. We
then develop a theoretical framework in four steps arguing for a conflict-prolonging
effect of rebel groups’ child soldiers on the duration of armed conflict. The net effect of
these arguments is studied empirically using data on rebels’ child soldier usage in con-
flict years between 1989 and 2003.3
The conclusion of this study is that civil wars have a significantly and substantially
longer duration if rebels recruit and use child soldiers. This conclusion has important
implications for our understanding of civil war dynamics as well as for our understand-
ing of child soldiering. First, this result contributes to the vast literature on the determi-
nants of civil war durations that, thus far, has not systematically acknowledged the
additional influence of child soldiering practices. Second, conflict duration is a key fac-
tor of conflict intractability influencing the economic and human costs of war (e.g.
Bennett and Stam, 1996). Cunningham (2006, 2010), for example, estimates that, for
each extra month of civil war, an additional 189 causalities are observed. Knowing which
variables increase or decrease the duration of a conflict may help policymakers and
scholars alike to gain a better assessment of the possible risks and costs involved.
Moreover, insights on the duration of armed conflicts could facilitate the anticipation of
the likelihood of military interventions or whether neighbouring countries will be desta-
bilized (see Pilster and Böhmelt, 2014). Finally, by showing that this relationship is sta-
tistically and substantively significant, we also inform the existing literature on the
determinants of child soldiering (e.g. Lasley and Thyne, 2015).
Child soldiers, civil war and conflict duration
Child soldiering
Existing studies on child soldiers (e.g. Blattman and Annan, 2010; Brett and Specht,
2004; Honwana, 2006; Lasley and Thyne, 2014; Singer, 2006; Tynes and Early, 2015)
can be divided into three broad literature strands. First, some scholars focus primarily

334
Cooperation and Conflict 52(3)
on the determinants of child soldiering, i.e. those factors that increase or decrease of
children joining armed groups during conflict in the first place. Honwana (2006), for
example, argues that due to globalization and civil wars, social structures are disrupted
that would have otherwise protected children from recruitment efforts. And Rosen
(2005) emphasizes the influence of security on the children’s decision to join armed
groups. Others focus more on identifying the factors that drive rebel groups to recruit
children (also called the supply-side of child soldiering). Beber and Blattman (2013),
for instance, argue that it is easier to indoctrinate and mislead children, and that they are
cheaper to retain and more responsive to coercive methods.4 Lastly, there is a literature
strand on the consequences of child soldiering. Veale and Stavrou (2007), for instance,
explored the issue of changing identities of child soldiers due to abduction and its
effect on reintegration. Others like Dickson-Gómez (2002), Berkowitz (1993) and
Bandura (1973) examined how social learning processes influence the mental and
behaviour changes that a child undergoes in the context of war. Punamäki (1987), for
instance, analyses the level of aggression among Palestinian and Israeli children, and
concludes that children exposed to war stressors frequently display more aggressive
behaviour. Others, such as Blattman and Annan (2010), find that rebels’ child soldier
recruitment has a negative impact on their post-conflict earnings, which is also con-
firmed by qualitative research on recruitment practices in Mozambique and El Salvador
(Boothby et al., 2006; Santacruz and Arana, 2002).
Additionally, there is a growing body of research that focuses on the effective rein-
tegration of child soldiers after war, especially in the context of Disarmament,
Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR) programmes. Utas (2011) describes how for-
mer child soldiers in Liberia use the victim label for accessing reintegration support.
Moreover, Halton (2011) looked from a practitioner perspective at the reintegration
process. He reports from his experience in Sudan that it is important to have a strong
enforcement of the reintegration process at the local level. Somewhat surprisingly, how-
ever, we know relatively little about the consequences of child soldiering on conflict
dynamics and society in general
. There are only a few notable exceptions that explicitly
focus on their impact. Bakaki and Hinkkainen (2016) empirically demonstrate that child
soldiering in civil war increases the likelihood of peacekeeping interventions. Haer and
Böhmelt (2016a, 2016b) find that child soldiers might improve the military effective-
ness of rebel organizations, but ultimately have a very detrimental impact on post-con-
flict peace. However, none of these studies address the underlying phenomenon that
may influence all these outcomes, i.e. the impact of rebel groups’ child soldiering on the
duration of conflicts.5
Armed conflict duration
Civil wars, insurgencies, and, more generally, domestic armed conflicts remarkably vary
in how long they last (e.g. Cunningham, 2006, 2010; Fearon, 2004; Lyall, 2010;
Wucherpfennig et al., 2012). Studies explaining this variation primarily rely on the idea
that conflicts continue if at least one of the belligerents believes that the dispute is more
beneficial than peace (e.g. Collier and...

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