Developing a Canadian Indo-Pacific geopolitical orientation

AuthorAdam MacDonald,Carter Vance
Published date01 December 2021
Date01 December 2021
DOI10.1177/00207020221083243
Subject MatterScholarly Essay
Scholarly Essay
International Journal
2021, Vol. 76(4) 564593
© The Author(s) 2022
Article reuse guidelines:
sagepub.com/journals-permissions
DOI: 10.1177/00207020221083243
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Developing a Canadian
Indo-Pacif‌ic geopolitical
orientation
Adam MacDonald
Political Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Canada
Carter Vance
Independent scholar
Abstract
There is growing consensus that Canada needs to do morein the Indo-Pacif‌ic region
as it becomes the centre of gravity in a changing international landscapea landscape
challenging several traditional assumptions about the nature and conf‌iguration of global
power which Canadian foreign policy has rested upon for decades, specif‌ically du e to
the emergence of Sino-American rivalry. It is clear Canada needs a regional approach
which is rooted in and better informed by geopolitical considerations, but there
remains an absence of analytical frameworks to compare and evaluate alternative
approaches. In addressing this void, this paper sketches out and compares four possible
orientations Canada could pursue towards the Indo-Pacif‌ic region: Minimal Engage-
ment, US-Aligned Confrontation, Regional Multilateralism, and Selective Minilateralism.
Remaining agnostic about which one(s) Canada should choose, the paper is designed to
highlight the stark trade-offs Canada must increasingly confront as it navigates this
uncertain environment.
Keywords
Indo-Pacif‌ic, Canada, geopolitics, Sino-US rivalry, strategy, regional relations
Corresponding author:
Adam MacDonald, Dalhousie University, Political Science, 6299 South Street, Halifax, Nova Scotia, B3H
4R2, Canada.
Email: adam.macdonald@dal.ca
The last decade has seen a noticeable change in Canadas engagement with the Indo-
Pacif‌ic region, specif‌ically a broadening from a near-exclusive f‌ixation on trade, with a
particular focus on China, towards more inclusion of, and interest in, diplomatic and
security concerns. These pursuits seem to signal a desire by Canada to regain a regional
presence which is long-term and multifaceted. However, there remains no clear ra-
tionale as to why this is important and what it is meant to achieve, especially in an
environment of increasing competing demands in other foreign policy areas. As a
result, whether this activity solidif‌ies into a durable trend or is simply another short-
lived spike of interest periodically punctuating the history of an otherwise low priority
area for Canadian foreign policy is yet to be determined. Canadian strategic focus has
historically, and remains, f‌ixated on North America and the North Atlantic which has
inhibited development of a robust approach towards the Indo-Pacif‌ic region.
1
Many analysts argue this def‌iciency must be rectif‌ied as the Indo-Pacif‌ic region is
becoming the new centre of political, security, and economic gravity in the global
system which demands Canada have a robust regional strategy of engagement towards
it.
2
Failure to do so will permanently sideline Canada and its interests in the region,
resulting in it becoming a laggard in its relationships with traditional allies, close
partners, and emerging regional powers, and ultimately undermining its role as a
meaningful player globally in general.
3
At present, Canada is moving in this direction
with the current government developing an Indo-Pacif‌ic strategy. This process in-
volves, and is a top priority for, several ministries including Global Affairs Canada and
the Department of National Defence, as outlined in their current mandate letters.
We seek to contribute to this ongoing discussion by conducting a comparative
analysis of various possible geopolitical orientations Canada could take toward the
Indo-Pacif‌ic. The four options presented below are based on foreground assessments
about critical uncertainties regarding global political, security, and economic trajec-
tories. Our aim is to stimulate debate beyond the generalized consensus emerging that
Canada needs to do morefor three reasons. First, we wish to avoid prescriptions that
are just modest deviations from the status quo, which limits thinking about real al-
ternatives and what factors those would be based on. Second, there is a dearth of
analysis about what the rationales and effects would be if Canada were less, not more,
involved in the region. There is a bias that Canada must become more involved, usually
at all levels, in the region, which has largely avoided critical examination of why this is
so. Finally, analyses tend to focus on goals and interests and tactics to achieve them,
1. Kim Richard Nossal, The North Atlantic anchor: Canada and the Pacif‌ic century,International Journal
73, no. 3 (2018): 364378.
2. Jonathan Berkshire Miller, Canadas Indo-Pacif‌ic moment,Macdonald-Laurier Institute, March 2021,
https://www.macdonaldlaurier.ca/canadas-indo-pacif‌ic-moment-mli-policy-brief-jonathan-berkshire-
miller/ (accessed 25 January 2022).
3. Stephen Nagy, Canada in the Indo-Pacif‌ic?The School of Public Policy Publications 14, no. 15 (2021);
Jeffrey Reeves, Canada and the Free and Open Indo-Pacif‌ic: A strategic assessment,Asia Policy 27, no.
4 (2020): 5164; Kenneth Holland, Canada and the Indo-Pacif‌ic strategy,Canadian Foreign Policy
Journal 27, no. 2 (2021): 228250.
MacDonald and Vance 565

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