Developmental milestones and terrorism: age-linked variations in risk assessment
| Date | 12 December 2024 |
| Pages | 7-23 |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1108/JFP-11-2023-0062 |
| Published date | 12 December 2024 |
| Subject Matter | Health & social care,Criminology & forensic psychology,Forensic practice,Sociology,Sociology of crime & law,Law enforcement/correctional,Public policy & environmental management,Policing,Criminal justice |
| Author | Jonathan Kenyon,Kris Simpson |
Developmental milestones and terrorism:
age-linked variations in risk assessment
Jonathan Kenyon and Kris Simpson
Abstract
Purpose –Against a backdropof an increasingly younger terroristcohort within His Majesty’s Prisonand
Probation Service, this studyaims to explore the relationship between age and variousExtremism Risk
Guidance22þ(ERG22þ) assessment outcomes.
Design/methodology/approach –A database of 490 individualswas developed by coding content of
ERG22þreports from 2010 to 2021,equating to nearly all cases in England and Wales across this time
period. Socio-demographicinformation, offending histories,online activities and risk factors were coded
for all individuals.This study focuses on 465 individuals convictedof terrorist/terrorist-related offending,
with statistical analyses used to compare three age groups: ‘‘20 and under’’ (61 cases), 21–25 (133
cases)and ‘‘26 and over’’ (271 cases).
Findings –Significant associationswere found between presence of certain behaviours/characteristics
and age groups. For those aged 20 and under, a heightened propensity for excitement, comradeship
and adventure, along with greatersusceptibility to influence and need for status were generally key to
offending pathways, with a diminished likelihood of a prior criminal history. Of the three ERG22þ
dimensions, findingsindicate a weak but significant negative correlationbetween age and engagement
levels.
Practical implications –Recommendations includeensuring extremism risk assessments reflect age-
specific behaviours and tendencies, that interventions are tailored to address common age-related
vulnerabilities,and the need for age-specific policies to supportand manage children and young adults
withinthe counter-terrorism space.
Originality/value –These novel findings point towards notable developmental milestones in
adolescence, affecting behavioural tendencies and risk. This underscores the importance of age as a
determinantwhen interpreting extremism risk assessments.
Keywords Terrorist, Extremist, Minors, Youth, Radicalisation, Children, Young adults, Pathways,
ERG22þ
Paper type Research paper
Introduction
Recent reports indicate that increasinglyyounger individuals are being drawn into extremist
ideologies, with online gaming forums, chatrooms and digital leaflets serving as platforms
for disseminating racist and extremist ideas (Davey, 2021;Koehler et al.,2022). Data
supports these assertions: the Home Office’s quarterly release of statistics relating to the
police’s use of powers under the Terrorism Act 2000 reveals a record high in arrests for
children under 18 for terrorism offences, accounting for over 13% of all such arrests in the
year ending June 2021 (CTP, 2021).
The internet and online recruitment are considered critical in the emergence of an
increasingly younger terrorist cohort in England and Wales. Today’s youth are frequently
exposed to high volumes of violent extremist and intolerant content online (OSCE, 2012).
Terrorist organisations are known to exploit the internet, particularly social media, to target
and recruit younger individuals (Kenyon et al., 2022). Platforms popular among young
Jonathan Kenyon and Kris
Simpson are both based at
the HMPPS Counter
Terrorism –Assessment
and Rehabilitation Centre,
London, UK.
Received 22 November 2023
Revised 1 February 2024
24 March 2024
Accepted 1 May 2024
Conflict of interest statement:
The authors confirm that they
have no conflict of interest to
declare.
The authors would like to
acknowledge the contributions
of Dr Jens Binder Associate
Professor at Nottingham Trent
University and Dr Christopher
Baker-Beall Senior Lecturer at
Bournemouth University in
creating the data set and for the
selection of variables from
which this study is based.
DOI 10.1108/JFP-11-2023-0062 VOL. 27 NO. 1 2025, pp. 7-23, ©Emerald Publishing Limited, ISSN 2050-8794 jTHE JOURNAL OF FORENSIC PRACTICE jPAGE 7
people, such as TikTok, have reportedly become fertile grounds for terrorist recruitment
(Weimann and Masri, 2023). The exploitation of video games and associated digital
platforms is also a growing concern (Lakhani et al.,2022). Gamers, who typically represent
a younger demographic, are often prime targets for global terrorist recruitment (Lamphere-
Englund and White, 2023). Both far-right extremists and violent jihadist groups have been
known to recruit members via gaming platforms, create propaganda within gaming
environments and even develop bespoke games(Schlegel, 2020). The pervasive presence
of terrorist content online, combined with targeted recruitment efforts by terrorist groups
through social media and gaming platforms, has lowered the barriers to entry for young
individuals to become involvedin terrorism.
In addition to online influences, certain developmental characteristics of adolescence may
contribute to the heightened vulnerability of younger individuals to radicalisation and
involvement in terrorism. Radicalisation is understood as a process characterised by a
complex interplay of individual, social and societal factors, culminating in ideas, attitudes
and behaviours that deviate from democratic and constitutional norms (Beelmann, 2020).
Adolescence is a formative period characterised by identity exploration and openness to
new ideas, often shaped by peer influences (Schro
¨der et al., 2022). During this time, peers
become crucial sources of social esteem and capital, as adolescents prioritise status and
affirmation from sources outside their family. The need for belonging is also particularly
pronounced in adolescence, with Speckhard (2016) noting that young individuals attracted
to Islamist terrorism often seek to emulate their peers or become part of a perceived “jihadi
cool” or “gansta” jihad culture. Terrorist recruitment efforts have been observed to exploit
these social dynamics, leveraging friendships and acquaintances to facilitate involvement
in terrorist activities. Moreover,adolescents are often susceptible to identity crises, which, if
prolonged or unresolved, may lead to deviant behaviours, including terrorism (Borum,
2012).
Beelmann (2020) described adolescence as a pivotal phase for political socialisation,
where individuals often explore various political positions, including extremist ones (Rekker
et al.,2015
). This is supported by population surveys in multiple countries, indicating that
extremist attitudes are common among adolescents (see Cherney et al., 2020;Schro
¨der
et al.,2022
). Developmentally, the thrill-seeking nature of youth can make terrorism
appealing, offering excitement and a sense of achievement. Terrorist groups exploit this by
crafting propaganda that promises adventure and excitement (Darden, 2019). Forinstance,
Daesh’s “brand” lures recruits with promises of adventure, conquest and revenge through
Hollywood-like videos and fantasies of heroism or martyrdom (Melki and El-Masri, 2016;
Spens, 2014). Furthermore, the lack of life experience and critical thinking skills among
younger individuals can make them particularly vulnerable to extremist propaganda and
recruitment efforts (Gonzalezet al.,2022).
Recent research highlights the need to better understand the types of offences committed
by younger individuals involved in terrorism and specific risks they pose compared to older
age groups. The age-crime curve in developmental criminology shows increased criminal
behaviour during adolescence, which declines as individuals reach adulthood (Farrington,
1986;Shulman et al.,2013). Young men are particularly prone to violent crimes, whereas
older individuals tend to consider the consequences of their actions more carefully, such as
imprisonment, damaged familial relationships and loss of employment (Farrington, 1986).
This pattern has garnered interest in radicalisation studies, with some indication that
terrorism’s political dimensionmay complicate the typical age-violence nexus. For example,
Klausen et al. (2016) found that extremist violence peaks at older ages compared to violent
crimes. Their study of over 600 Americanterrorists associated with Hamas, Hezbollah or Al-
Qaeda revealed that individuals over 40 were mostly involved in non-violent roles, whereas
younger individuals were more engaged in violent activities and foreign insurgency.
PAGE 8 jTHE JOURNAL OF FORENSIC PRACTICE jVOL. 27 NO. 1 2025
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