Does urban tourism attractiveness affect young adult migration in Germany?

Published date05 February 2018
Date05 February 2018
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1108/JPIF-01-2017-0008
Pages68-90
AuthorPhilipp Schäfer,Tobias Just
Subject MatterProperty management & built environment,Real estate & property,Property valuation & finance
Does urban tourism attractiveness
affect young adult migration
in Germany?
Philipp Schäfer and Tobias Just
IRE/BS International Real Estate Business School, University of Regensburg,
Regensburg, Germany
Abstract
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze whether urban tourism attractiveness affects young adult
migration within Germany. Currently, factors like urban attractiveness, environmental qualities or vicinity to
amenities play a more important role for the migration of young adults than in the past. This has highly
asymmetric implications for the housing (and commercial real estate) markets in cities with an abundance of
urban attractiveness, compared to cities without such attractions.
Design/methodology/approach This analysis focuses on the internal migrati on of young adults
(18-30-year-olds). First, some stylize d facts regarding migra tion patterns are pres ented by means of
descriptive and cluster a nalyses (k-mea ns methodology) with resp ect to the net immigration rat e for the
two years, 2004 and 2014. Second, ordinary least squares-regression analyses are used to estimate
the connection betwe en urban tourism attractiveness and migra tion.
Findings Young adults in Germany predominantly migrate to cities. The authors find typical migration
patterns, and the regression results indicate that young adult migration is highly correlated with the indicator
measuring urban tourism attractiveness. This means that urban attractions matter for young adults.
Finally, the authors also find that housing rents are correlated with urban tourism attractiveness.
Practical implications Good city planning must not only be concerned with new industrial sites, but also
about esthetic neighborhoods and, for example, attractive squares. Moreover, because city structures and
urban amenities are both path dependent and expensive to change, it is likely that the winning cities of today
will remain winners in the next decade, which is good news for risk-averse investors.
Originality/value To the best of the authorsknowledge, the paper provides the first empirical analysis of
the connection between urban tourism attractiveness and the migration of young adults, in the context
of German cities.
Keywords Germany, Housing market,Internal migration, Young adults, Cities, Urban tourism attractiveness
Paper type Research paper
1. Introduction
Presently, about 74.6 percent of the German population lives in cities, and this share has
edged up in the last few years (Federal Statistical Office, 2016a). Today, living and working
in cities offers more net benefits than living in rural areas. At the same time, cities have
increasingly attracted tourists. In 2015, Berlin recorded 30.3 million overnight stays, Munich
14.1 and Leipzig 2.8 (Federal Statistical Office, 2016b). Traditionally, migration theory,
housing market analysis and the analysis of touristic movements have been largely
unconnected, as the drivers were perceived to be unrelated. Migrants aim to stay for longer
time periods (Schlömer, 2004). Thus, their main driver is rising discounted net benefits,
which is often approximated by the discounted wage differential between the destination
and the origin (Todaro, 1969; Straubhaar, 1988). Contrarily, tourists stay for shorter time
periods and are primarily attracted by sights and amenities (Ashworth and Page, 2011;
Edwards et al., 2008).
The more recent literature on migration differentiates between push and pull factors
(Praussello, 2011), though not all of these factors are easy to quantify. Young adults
predominantly migrate to cities (Geppert and Gornig, 2010; Herfert and Osterhage, 2012;
Busch, 2016; Simons and Weiden, 2015). Besides educational and job perspective
reasons, urban amenities seem to have gained importance as a pull factor for young adults
Journal of Property Investment &
Finance
Vol. 36 No. 1, 2018
pp. 68-90
© Emerald PublishingLimited
1463-578X
DOI 10.1108/JPIF-01-2017-0008
Received 25 January 2017
Revised 26 April 2017
Accepted 14 June 2017
The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available on Emerald Insight at:
www.emeraldinsight.com/1463-578X.htm
68
JPIF
36,1
(Franklin, 2003; Geppert and Gornig, 2010; Ahlfeldt and Wendland, 2017). Urban amenities
include the provision of private and public goods, access to a peer group or natural
amenities, which make life comfortable and enjoyable (Glaeser et al., 2001; Ahlfeldt and
Wendland, 2017). In this sense, the drivers of long-term migration could have converged
partly with those of tourism activity. Consequently, both mobility groups increasingly
consider similar amenities and activities e.g. cultural attractions and performances, shops
and other facilities. (Ashworth, 2003; Ashworth and Page, 2011; Edwards et al., 2008).
Thus, for real estate professionals, city planners and housing policy makers, the
drivers of young adult migration are highly relevant for three reasons. First, provided this
relationship is here to stay, attractive and less attractive cities will develop very
differently, independent of their success in developing industrial sites, opening small
universities or getting connected to the national highway network. Second, the findings
may influence the way we plan cities in the future, putting the citizen back in the center.
Third, since rents and house prices have increased significantly in many German cities
since 2008 on the back of improving labor markets, inward migration and low interest
rates, policy makers will need to consider how to provide more living space in the
attractive citi es and/or how to mak e less attractive cities and even rural areas attractive
again. And even though urban tourism tightens the housing markets (Schäfer and Braun,
2016; Schäfer and Hirsch, 2017; Biagi et al., 2015), most young adults are still willing to
accept higher costs of living, in order to benefit from urban advantages (Geppert and
Gornig, 2010; Simons and Weiden, 2015).
This study contributes to the related literature by analyzing the migration patterns of
young adults in Germany (defined as 18-30-year-olds). This is done by means of descriptive
and cluster analyses (k-means methodology); by estimating the impact of urban
attractiveness (measured by an urban tourism attractiveness indicator) on internal
migration flows to cities with the aid of two different approaches, with cross-sectional
regressions using ordinary least squares (OLS) and last, by deriving some implications for
the housing markets based on these results, as well as by estimating the effect of urban
tourism attractiveness on housing rents, with a straightforward regression model (OLS).
Consequently, we answer the following three research questions:
RQ1. Do young adults in Germany follow specific migration patterns?
RQ2. Does urban tourism attractiveness affect young adult migration?
RQ3. What are the implications of these patterns and of urban tourism attractiveness for
actors in the German housing market?
The research analyzes the German internal migration matrix for young adults for the
years 2004 and 2014 for the German counties (Landkreise) and cities (kreisfreie Städte).
We focus on internal migration patterns, as foreign migrat ion is to a large exte nt
determined by exogenous shocks and national wage differentials. External migration to
German cities started to pick up following the recessions in Southern Europe from 2008
onward and more recently after the wave of inward migration of asylum seekers in 2015,
when almost one million refugees entered Germany. Both movements would distort the
analysis of the relevance of tourism attractiveness on migration. Therefore, the focus
is on internal migration.
Theremainderofthispaperisstructuredasfollows:Section2reviewstherelated
literature. Section 3 describes the data used for the study. Section 4 explains our
methodology and describes the cluster analysis and the regression models. Section 5
describes and explains the results of the empirical analysis. Section 6 outlines implications
for the housing markets of German cities, and Section 7 summarizes and concludes
the study.
69
Young adult
migration in
Germany

To continue reading

Request your trial

VLEX uses login cookies to provide you with a better browsing experience. If you click on 'Accept' or continue browsing this site we consider that you accept our cookie policy. ACCEPT