Donald Trump’s Re-election Prospects
| Author | John E. Owens |
| Published date | 01 September 2020 |
| Date | 01 September 2020 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/2041905820958815 |
8POLITICAL INSIGHT•SEPTEMBER 2020
Donald Trump might well become
the rst incumbent US President
in the 21st century not to be
re-elected. Just over 100 days
from the election, his approval levels were
languishing at just 40 per cent at the same
time that most polls have him trailing his
Democratic opponent, Joe Biden.
Presidential approval ratings and head-
to-head polls, of course, are only snapshots
taken at a particular moment in time; they
cannot predict the outcome of the election
in advance. Nonetheless, the former
Vice-President’s lead has been increasing
from between four and six per cent in
May, depending on the poll, to between
eight and 10 since then. That Biden’s poll
lead has been far more consistent and
greater than Hillary Clinton’s in 2016’s open
contest, which she lost, may be signicant
Donald Trump’s
Re-election Prospects
John E. Owens examines the polling data and finds the odds stacked
against a Trump victory in November, with the incumbent’s
underlying electoral vulnerability compounded by his chaotic
response to domestic crises.
for November inasmuch as it reects
Americans’ responses to Trump’s highly
problematic performance in oce.
Crisis handling
Negative perceptions of Trump’s responses
to the COVID-19 crisis have dominated
reactions to the President in this election
year. As US infections have risen to 4.4
million and deaths to 151,000, and millions
of workers have led for unemployment
benets, unsurprisingly, by early July, 88 per
cent of poll respondents had become ‘very’
or ‘somewhat’ concerned about its eect
on the economy. Just 71 per cent worried
about the infection itself. Voters increasingly
© Press Association
Political Insight September 2020 BU.indd 8Political Insight September 2020 BU.indd 804/08/2020 13:2804/08/2020 13:28
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