Economic development: How does it influence the survival of different types of autocracy?
| Author | Daniel Stockemer,Steffen Kailitz |
| Published date | 01 November 2020 |
| Date | 01 November 2020 |
| DOI | 10.1177/0192512120915902 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
https://doi.org/10.1177/0192512120915902
International Political Science Review
2020, Vol. 41(5) 711 –727
© The Author(s) 2020
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DOI: 10.1177/0192512120915902
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Economic development: How does
it influence the survival of different
types of autocracy?
Daniel Stockemer
University of Ottawa, Canada
Steffen Kailitz
Hannah-Arendt Institute for the Research on Totalitarianism, Dresden University of Technology, Germany
Abstract
Modernization theory is one of the most influential theories in political science. However, to date, studies
testing the impact of modernization on political regimes have almost completely focused on democracies.
We aim at broadening the discussion to autocracies and ask the following research question: What impact
has economic development on the survival of different types of autocracy? Using data covering 1946 to
2016, we ascertain – mainly through logistic regression analysis – that the level of economic development
affects not only the endurance of democracies but also that of various types of autocracy. In more detail, we
find that economic development prolongs the survival of ideocracies and personalist autocracies. The effect
of economic modernization on military dictatorships, monarchies and electoral autocracies is very limited.
In contrast, one party autocracies are the only regime type whose survival chances (moderately) decrease
with modernization.
Keywords
Modernization, regime legitimation, regime durability, autocracies, political regime types
Introduction
Francis Fukuyama euphorically predicted (1991) that we are entering a golden age of liberal
democracy, where free states should become the ‘only game in town’. Now, nearly 20 years later,
we know that this prediction was premature. We are currently in an era of democratic backsliding
characterized by the establishment of new autocracies in Turkey, Venezuela and Russia, and the
consolidation of other autocracies in many parts of the world including Egypt and Syria. This time
of autocratic expansion renders the following research question all the more relevant: Why do
Corresponding author:
Daniel Stockemer, University of Ottawa, 120 University, Ottawa, ON K1N6N5, Canada.
Email: dstockem@uottawa.ca
915902IPS0010.1177/0192512120915902International Political Science ReviewStockemer and Kailitz
research-article2020
Article
712 International Political Science Review 41(5)
autocracies survive? This question has triggered some attention recently. For example, Shen-Bayh
(2018) looks at the strategies of repression and co-optation autocrats adopt to quell opposition.
Girod et al. (2018) examine how the income sources of autocratic regimes influence their survival,
while Knutsen and Rasmussen (2017) illustrate how the type of welfare state and social assistance
programmes autocracies provide to citizens affect overall satisfaction with the regime, which, in
turn, influences the stability of these regimes. Finally, Schmotz and Tansey (2018) look at the
importance of regional and international linkages autocrats foster to solidify their power.
For sure, these more actor-based contributions tremendously add to our understanding of auto-
cratic survival. Yet, we think that we can also learn about the longevity of autocracies if we go back
to the classics on regime survival. Probably the most central theory on regime survival is moderni-
zation theory. There is consensus in the academic literature that modernization, in the form of
economic development, has a positive influence on the emergence and longevity of democracies
(Cheibub and Vreeland, 2011). Yet, there is little research that tests the influence of economic
development on the survival of autocracies, and no existing study systematically tests its influence
on the survival of different types of autocracy. Given that the modi operandi are quite different
between various types of autocracy such as military regimes and ideocracies, we entertain the fol-
lowing research question: how does economic development affect the survival of several types of
autocracy? To answer this question, we distinguish six types of autocracy: ideocracies, (ruling)
monarchies, military dictatorships, personalist autocracies, one-party monarchies, and electoral
autocracies. We also add liberal democracies to our study to provide a point of comparison.
Our quantitative study, which covers 165 countries from 1946 to 2016, illustrates that there are
net differences in the survival of various regimes, with ideocracies having the highest survival rate
and military autocracies the lowest chance of survival. There is also a positive relationship between
modernization and the survival of ideocracies, personalist autocracies and democracies.
Our article is structured as follows: first, we review modernization theory and reflect on the
possible impact of modernization on democracies and various types of autocracy. Second, we out-
line our classification of regime types and present alternative hypotheses for the dependence or
otherwise on modernization for the survival of autocratic regime types. Third and fourth, we dis-
cuss the methodological procedures adopted for this research and the results, respectively. Finally,
we summarize the main findings of this research and provide avenues for future research.
Theory: Modernization theory
Since Seymour Martin Lipset’s seminal article ‘Some social requisites of democracy’ (1959),
modernization theory has become, the ‘hitherto greatest (in terms of adherents and research pur-
sued) and most dominant theory of the prerequisites of democracy’ Hadenius (1992: 77). The
essence of Lipset’s argumentation is that increased education and wealth lead to a growing middle
class. Because wealth grows and education spreads, extremism in the lower class declines. Hence,
the danger of the upper strata being violently expropriated by the lower class declines. With the
rise of the middle class and the decline of extremism in the lower strata, extremism in the upper
strata also declines. Modernization theory has been applied extensively to explain the emergence
and survival of democracies. The basic argument for the necessity of a democratic regime (inclu-
sive and competitive) in modernizing societies from the standpoint of modernization theory is
that the larger and more complex a society becomes, the more important is effective political
organization [. . .] and ‘[n]o institutional form basically different from the democratic associa-
tion’ (Parsons, 1964: 355) can handle this.
Therefore, the main premise behind modernization theory is that socio-economic developments
foster the pressure and the need for a political development that ‘involves the creation of political
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