Electoral reform and partisan dealignment in Indonesia
| Date | 01 June 2020 |
| Published date | 01 June 2020 |
| Author | Diego Fossati |
| DOI | 10.1177/0192512119826389 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
https://doi.org/10.1177/0192512119826389
International Political Science Review
2020, Vol. 41(3) 349 –364
© The Author(s) 2019
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DOI: 10.1177/0192512119826389
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Electoral reform and partisan
dealignment in Indonesia
Diego Fossati
City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
Abstract
There is a vast literature on the effects of electoral institutions on party systems. Research on the relationship
between electoral systems and the strength of partisan identities, however, is inconclusive, as existing work
mostly focuses on individual-level factors. In this paper, we analyze the case of Indonesia to illustrate the links
between electoral laws and patterns of mass partisanship. By exploiting variation over time (four electoral
cycles), we show that deep-seated partisan affiliations weakened substantially with the introduction of open-
list PR, a system that provides strong incentives to cultivate a personal vote. By analyzing variation across
space (189 districts), we further document that partisan alignment has been more pronounced where personal
voting is more prevalent. These findings suggest that electoral institutions are a powerful driver of partisan
identities, and that the effect of institutional change at the national level may be contingent on local politics.
Keywords
Electoral reform, political parties, partisanship, personal voting, Indonesia
Introduction
How do electoral institutions shape the development of partisan identities among voters? A large lit-
erature has documented that electoral laws have a powerful effect on voting behavior, as they struc-
ture competition among political parties and strategic considerations for voters (Lijphart, 1994).
However, the effects of electoral institutions on partisan identities are not clear. While some research
suggests that electoral systems that produce a large number of parties and ensure party control over
ballots facilitate the emergence of strong partisan identities (Huber et al., 2005; Karp and Banducci,
2008), other studies have found little empirical support for these hypotheses (Norris, 2004).
In part, such mixed results are due to the prevalence in the literature of cross-sectional research
designs in which whole countries are units of analysis. This methodological approach hinders the
identification of institutional effects by overlooking changes in partisan identification over time
and across space within single countries. With an analysis of electoral reform and partisanship in
Corresponding author:
Diego Fossati, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Asian and International Studies, 83 Tat Chee Avenue,
Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong.
Email: dfossati@cityu.edu.hk
826389IPS0010.1177/0192512119826389International Political Science ReviewFossati
research-article2019
Article
350 International Political Science Review 41(3)
Indonesia, the world’s third largest democracy and a case that is often overlooked in comparative
research, this paper aims to demonstrate that in-depth case study analysis may be a powerful tool
to learn about institutional determinants of partisan identity.
Indonesia constitutes a particularly suitable case to investigate the relationship between elec-
toral institutions and partisanship. First, we leverage the uniqueness of the Indonesian case as a
country in which radical changes to the ballot structure were introduced a few years after democ-
ratization. We analyze an original dataset in which we match electoral data from the first demo-
cratic election in Indonesia in 1999 with district-level electoral returns for the following three
election cycles (2004–2014). The data allow us to document a process of partisan dealignment in
democratic Indonesia, in which the effect of the 1999 electoral returns on subsequent voting pat-
terns has decreased over time, especially in the immediate aftermath of the introduction of open-
list PR in 2009.
Second, building on district-level analyses of electoral rules and party systems (Chhibber and
Kollman, 2009), we exploit the exceptionally high degree of subnational social and political het-
erogeneity in Indonesia to identify if electoral reform contributed to partisan dealignment.
Specifically, we focus on personal voting, the key feature of open-list PR, and we find that partisan
dealignment is strongest in districts where personal voting is more prevalent.
This paper contributes to existing research with a detailed case-study analysis of how electoral
reform affects mass partisan identities. While the literature on partisan identities is vast, it mostly
focuses on individual-level determinants of partisan affiliations and on cognitive factors in particu-
lar (Dalton, 2002). As a result, research on institutional determinants of partisan identities is rela-
tively undeveloped (Huber et al., 2005), and the extent to which candidate-centered electoral
systems weaken existing partisan affiliations is an open question. This analysis of the Indonesian
case suggests that electoral institutions do have a large effect on voter propensity to develop and
maintain partisan identities.
We also contribute to the study of democratic consolidation in Indonesia. Existing research has
argued that partisan identities have been weakening (Mujani et al., 2018; Ufen, 2008), and it has
recognized the importance of electoral reform to account for changes in the party system (Aspinall,
2014; Mietzner, 2013; Tomsa, 2014). However, despite a rich and insightful literature on this sub-
ject, there is no empirical analysis to date that examines the full temporal and spatial spectrum of
available electoral data. We lack conclusive evidence on the extent of partisan dealignment, its
trajectory over the four electoral cycles, its subnational variation, its variation across party, and the
causal mechanisms that are driving it. This article proposes answers to each of these questions.
Electoral systems and partisan identity
Conceptualizations of partisan identity that are commonly used in the literature understand parti-
sanship as an attitudinal characteristic of individuals that comprises two main dimensions.1 On the
one hand, partisan identities can be conceptualized as affective attachments to political parties
(Campbell et al., 1960). On the other hand, partisanship can also be considered as a ‘running tally’
resulting from voters retrospectively evaluating the performance of political parties (Fiorina,
1981). Given this focus on individuals as units of analysis, the scholarship has mostly studied
individual-level characteristics such as age, ‘cognitive mobilization’, or satisfaction with demo-
cratic institutions to explain the strength of partisan identities and how they change over time
(Dalton, 2002).
Institutions, however, and electoral institutions in particular, have important effects on the
behavior of politicians and voters. Since Duverger’s (1959) foundational work, a prolific literature
has investigated the relationship between electoral institutions and party systems, showing that
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