Europe, the End of the West and Global Power Shifts
| Published date | 01 June 2017 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.12437 |
| Date | 01 June 2017 |
Europe, the End of the West and Global Power
Shifts
Daniela Schwarzer
German Council on Foreign Relations / SAIS, Johns Hopkins University
Abstract
Relative economic, political, and military power is undoubtedly shifting away from the West, most notably to Asia, but also to
other world regions. Moreover, non-state actors and cross-border flows increasingly pose challenges to Western states’capac-
ity for crisis management. Consequently, the liberal world order and its governance structures have come under pressure.
Even more fundamental is the emerging challenge to the notion of the ‘West’as a group of countries led by the United States
and unified around core values and principles. The 2016 US election results raise serious doubts about the future US adminis-
tration’s resolve to abide by liberal democratic norms both internally and in their international relations. Whether deliberately
or indirectly in the pursuit of other goals, the US may undermine the already weakened rules-based international system and
thereby accelerate the decline of the West’s material and ideological hegemony. In light of these potential conflicts, European
governments must take immediate action to prepare for a new global order. They must first strengthen their own countries
and enhance the internal coherence of the Union. Second, they must improve the crisis management facilities and strategic
capacities within their borders as well as within the euro area and the EU.
Policy Implications
•In an increasingly complex and uncertain world, the EU needs to put decisive efforts into strengthening itself internally,
which requires a successful strategy that fosters growth and socioeconomic cohesion. Internal cohesion is a prerequisite
for more effective external action.
•The ability to recover from shocks caused by attacks on values or, worse, attacks on humans or against the basic function-
ing of communities, becomes a key capacity. Socioeconomic fragility needs to be countered by strategic, economic, and
social policies. The resilience of societies will only increase by determined measures that create redundancies in the struc-
tures necessary for the basic functioning of societies, as well as by policies enacted to bridge societal divisions and enable
communities to grow together.
•Given the shifts in global power and the recent questioning of the reliability of the transatlantic partnership, the EU
should build its own crisis management capacities to enable internal monitoring systems to better deal with the
unknowns, for instance increasing early warning and prevention capacities. It further needs to bridge administrations and
governments and make them cooperate effectively. This is particularly important, as trans-boundary crises need more flexi-
ble and adaptable capacities for responses.
•In an increasingly volatile, uncertain and interconnected environment, strategic capacity and efficient coordination are a
key prerequisite for governments and the EU institutions to be able to act coherently and effectively. An ongoing strategic
discussion is necessary to reassure all actors, including non-state agents and members of the public, on the overall direc-
tion and goal, political priorities and instruments to be employed. This requires continual adjustment, involving the contin-
ual assessment of risks as they are anticipated or emerge, but against the backdrop of ‘centrally derived policy
assumptions’in order to avoid confusion, contradictory policies and poor accountability. In that sense, strategic capacity is
better served by a process of ongoing stocktaking, involving expert groups, stakeholder involvement and coordination
structures, rather than by the production of monumental strategy documents.
Since the early 2000s, the notion of global power shifts has
served as the backdrop for discussions on the EU’s role in
the world. The debates centred on the relative decline of
the West and possible consequences for global governance
as well as the changing nature of security threats and the
emergence of cross-sectoral and transnational risks. What
remained unchallenged was the concept of the West as a
group of countries acting in unison under American leader-
ship as the anchor of the liberal international order and glo-
bal protector of fundamental human rights. On the contrary,
a substantial number of studies focused on how the United
States, or the United States and Europe together (see, for
example, Flockhart, 2014), could continue to protect the
principles of the liberal order despite their relative decline,
while also working with emerging powers to reach consen-
sus on a sustainable, but changed rules-based order.
The election of Donald Trump as 45th President of the
United States, however, marks a turning point in the debate
over global power relationships and Europe’s role in the
world. At the time of writing, the Trump administration has
©2017 University of Durham and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Global Policy (2017) 8:Suppl.4 doi: 10.1111/1758-5899.12437
Global Policy Volume 8 . Supplement 4 . June 2017
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