Exploring the co‐movements between COVID‐19 pandemic and international air traffic: A global perspective based on wavelet analysis
| Published date | 01 June 2023 |
| Author | Zeeshan Fareed,Mahdi Ghaemi Asl,Muhammad Irfan,Mohammad Mahdi Rashidi,Hong Wang |
| Date | 01 June 2023 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/imig.13026 |
116
|
International Migration. 2023;61:116–131.
wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/imig
Received: 11 Octo ber 2021
|
Revised: 25 Febru ary 2022
|
Accepted: 5 May 2022
DOI: 10.1111/imig.13026
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Exploring the co- movements between COVID-19
pandemic and international air traffic: A global
perspective based on wavelet analysis
Zeeshan Fareed1| Mahdi Ghaemi Asl2| Muhammad Irfan3|
Mohammad Mahdi Rashidi4| Hong Wang5
1School of Econo mics and Manageme nt,
Huzhou Univer sity, Huzhou, China
2Faculty of Econo mics, Kharazmi U niversity,
Tehran, Iran
3Departm ent of Political Scie nce &
Internation al Relations, Unive rsity of Gujrat ,
Gujrat, Pakistan
4Faculty of Econo mics, Imam Sadiq
Universit y, Tehran, Iran
5School of Econo mics and Manageme nt,
Anqing Norm al University, Anqi ng, China
Correspondence
Hong Wang, Sch ool of Economics and
Management , Anqing Normal Uni versity,
Anqing 246011, Ch ina.
Email: wanghong10101@163.com
Funding information
No funding was r eceived for this work .
Abstract
The travel and tour ism indust ry was one of the fas test-
growing in dustries before the onse t of the COVID- 19
pandemic. However, to avoid COVID- 19 spread, the gov-
ernment authorities imposed strict lockdown and inter-
national border restrictions except for some emergency
international flights that badl y hit the travel and tourism
industry. The study explores the nexus between interna-
tional air depart ures and the COVID- 19 pandemic in t his
strain. We use a n ovel wavelet coherence approach to d is-
sect the lead and l ag relationships between international
flight departures and COVID- 19 deaths from January 2020
to September 2020 (COVID- 19 fir st wave period). The re-
sults reveal that international flights cause the spread of
COVID- 19 spread during May 2020 to June 2020 wor ld-
wide. The overall findings suggest asymmetries between
daily internat ional flight depar tures and COVID- 19 deaths
globally at different time- frequency periods due to uncer-
tainty surroundi ng the COVID-19 pandemic. The study will
be conduci ve for the p olicymakers to co ntrol the upsurge
of COVID- 19 spread world wide.
© 2022 Internat ional Organizat ion for Migration.
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EXPLORING TH E CO- MOVEMENTS BET WEEN COVID- 19 AND
INTERNATIONAL AIR TRAFFIC
INTRODUCTION
The COVID- 19 pandemic has been affecting billions of peop le around the world. It ha s impac ted all aspects
of soci al life, as well as the weather and environmental conditions (Ali et al., 2021; Irfan e t al., 2021; Shahzad
et al ., 2020a, 2020b; Shuai et a l., 2022). It has also sign ificantly affected the perf ormance of many e conomic
sectors worl dwide, such as the stock ma rkets, insurance, bank ing industry, foreign exch ange and crypto market s,
travel and touris m industry (Iqbal et al ., 2021; Shahzad et al., 2020a, 2020b; Yan et al., 2022). However, tra nspor-
tation is one of the sectors that has been so severely affected by the pandemic, as well as other modes of transport
such as walking, drivin g, public transportat ion, aviation, taxi and cruise ships (Bake r et al., 2020; Bucsky, 2020; De
Vos, 2020; Hadjidemetr iou et al., 2020; Ito et al ., 2020; Nian et al., 2020). Th e restrictions laid by govern ments
and the fear of contrac ting the viru s as a result of a pandemic can be conside red the main reasons for the huge
impact of the p andemic on the transp ortation sector ( Abu- Rayash & Dincer, 2020). Transport ation is regarded as
a crucial factor in suppo rting human civilization and comm erce (Dube & Nhamo, 2020). It is also important to note
that mobility at th e global scale has experien ced an increasing trend over the last d ecade, surpassing globa l world
population growth (Abu- Rayash & Dincer, 2020). However, th e aviation sector has been conside red a key factor
in human development as it ena bles people to reach each other in a short pe riod of time (Nhamo et al., 2020). The
aviation se ctor makes a significant con tribution to t he world econ omy as the n et worth of this sector is around
US$ 2.7 trillion, a nd more than 65 million people w ork in the sector (ICAO, 2019). So, the impac t of the pandemic
on the aviatio n sector has indire ctly influenced ot her sectors, incl uding tourism, hoteli ng and entertainm ent, be-
sides the economic situat ion of many peo ple in the s ociety. Figure1 shows the trend of daily COVID- 19 deaths
and international air departures worldwide. It is evident that the number of international air departures plummets
considerably since March 20 20, as the num ber of daily COVI D- 19 d eaths increased. One reason fo r that can be
the restric tion towards air travelling i n order to restrain the pa ndemic transmission.
Many studies show that re stricting air travel is a useful s trategy for preventing the spre ad of coronavirus (Chu
et al., 2020; Cr aig et al., 2020; Daon et al., 2020; Lau et al. , 2020; Linka et al., 2020; Murphy et al., 2020; Wil son
FIGURE 1Time trend of COVID- 19 and internationa l air departures world wide
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