How Close is a Border Poll or a United Ireland?
| Author | Jon Tonge |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/20419058221147589 |
| Published date | 01 December 2022 |
| Date | 01 December 2022 |
16POLITICAL INSIGHT•DECEMBER 2022
Northern Ireland’s constitutional
future has always been contested.
The 1998 Good Friday Agreement
emphasised that whether
Northern Ireland remains within the UK or
becomes part of a united Ireland depends
upon the preference of the majority of its
citizens. The Agreement declared that a
constitutional referendum, more commonly
referred to as a ‘border poll’, has to be called if it
appears to the Secretary of State for Northern
Ireland that there is majority support for a
united Ireland. Subsequent border polls may –
but need not be – held at intervals of not less
than seven years. Recent years have seen an
increase in the debate over whether the time
has arrived for such a referendum. Sinn Féin,
now the largest party within the Northern
Ireland Assembly, demands a date be set. This
article examines the (sparse) criteria by which
a border poll might be called, before assessing
some of that possible evidence: opinion polls,
election results, unionist and nationalist bloc
votes and census results.
The rules of the game
The 1998 Good Friday Agreement (paragraph
1, schedule 2) states that the Secretary of State
How Close is a Border
Poll or a United Ireland?
As the Northern Ireland census records more Catholics than
Protestants for the first time, Jon Tonge examines the likelihood of a
border poll on a united Ireland.
for Northern Ireland shall call a border poll if
at any time it appears likely to him (sic) that a
majority of those voting would express a wish
that Northern Ireland should cease to be part
of the United Kingdom and form part of a
united Ireland.
The UK government accepted a ‘binding
obligation’ to legislate for a united Ireland in
the event of a vote for Irish unication.
No criteria were provided as to how a
Secretary of State could judge that a majority
might desire constitutional change. At the
time this did not appear to matter unduly as a
poll appeared so distant. Since the 2016 Brexit
vote, however, a referendum has become
a more realistic possibility. Sinn Féin listed
‘securing a date from the Irish and British
governments for the referenda on unity
provided for in the Good Friday Agreement’
© Brian Lawless / Alamy Stock Photo
Political Insight December 2022.indd 16Political Insight December 2022.indd 1614/11/2022 11:1414/11/2022 11:14
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