How many people in the world do research and development?
| Published date | 01 May 2023 |
| Author | Davut Emrah Ayan,Laurel L. Haak,Donna K. Ginther |
| Date | 01 May 2023 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13182 |
270
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Global Policy. 2023;14:270–287.wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/gpol
1 | HUMAN CAPITAL
AND INNOVATION
Human capital is a key factor in innovation in response
to public needs (Belmonte da Silva & Fernandez
Jardón, 2021; Blind, 2012; Hamdan & H amdan,2020;
Lewis et al., 2017 ). Organizations absorb and uti-
lize knowledge through structural, human, and soc ial
capital (Engelman et al., 2017; So o et al.,2 017; Zhu
et al., 2020). Firms and universities combine capital
and labour to produce innovation. Most policymak-
ers focus on the funding of research & development
(R&D) measured by Gross Domestic Expenditures on
Research & Development (GERD), whilst largely ignor-
ing labour inputs. This paper consider s how research
human capital density (RHCD) contributes to innova-
tion on a global scale in compari son to the traditional
measure of R&D intensity measured by GERD.
Early quantitative analysis of R&D focused on rela-
tionships between research and productivity through
new product innovation and production ef ficiency gains
(Ewell, 1955 ). Innovation indicators are supported by
the national collection of economic data, including the
Community Innovation Survey (CIS), developed in the early
1990 s, which is a firm- based survey of innovation inputs
and outputs, including investments in innovation, sales
of new or changed products, plus data on co llaboration,
knowledge flows and other topics (Arundel & Smit h,2013).
In addition, international economic and education data are
collected by OECD, Eurostat, and UNESCO.
Over time, these surveys have evolved, as have the
indicators, generally through a bottom - up consensus
process, involving several communities of practice in -
cluding data producers and analysts, policy analysts
and implementers and rule makers (Gault, 2013). The
CIS has added and adjusted questions to suppor t anal-
ysis and policymaking. Early innovation indicators, su ch
as the ratio of R&D expenditures to sales, are making
way for indicators with more nuance (Godin,2008) that
include human capital measures.
Jorgenson and Vu(2013 ) argue that innovation has
a modest role in world economic grow th, and instead
RESEARCH ARTICLE
How many people in the world do research and
development?
Davut EmrahAyan1 | Laurel L.Haak2 | Donna K.Ginther3
Received: 10 June 202 2
|
R evised: 10 January 2023
|
A ccepted: 11 January 2023
DO I: 10 .1111/17 58- 589 9.13 182
1Institute for Policy & S ocial Research,
The Universit y of Kansas, Lawrence,
Kansas, USA
2Ronin Institute a nd Mighty Red Barn,
Townsend, Wisconsin, USA
3Department o f Economics and Instit ute
for Policy & Socia l Research, The
University of K ansas, Lawrence, Kansa s,
USA
Correspondence
Laurel L. Haak , Ronin Institute and Migh ty
Red Barn, Townsend, Wis consin 54175
USA.
Email: laurel.haak@ronininstitute.org
Funding information
National Bureau of Economic
Research, Gran t/Award Number:
25410.00.00.00.6600; Wellcome Trust;
National Science Foundation, Grant/
Award Number: SMA - 185484 9
Abstract
The traditional approach to comparing res earch and development (R&D) capac-
ity across countries has been to com pare Gross Domestic R&D expenditures
(GERD). In this paper, we argue for an expansion of R&D capacity that includes
people engaged in research and research and development activities (research
human capital density, RHCD). To achieve this goal, we first discuss how to es-
timate counts of researchers and create a measure of researcher human c apital
density within a country. Next, we examine whether RHCD is a us eful variable in
models of innovation capacity. Finally, we consider whether RHCD has explana-
tory power for models of research outputs inc luding patents and publications.
We find that RHCD has more explanatory power than GERD in the production
of patents and publications. We argue that surveys of individuals that incl ude
questions on R&D activities are useful for assessing i nnovation capacity, and,
if adopted more broadly, can provide a strategic framework for countries and
regions to develop human capital to suppor t innovative activities.
This is an open ac cess article under t he terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium,
provided the original work is properly cited.
© 2023 The Authors . Global Policy published by Durham Universi ty and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
|
271
COUNTING RESEARCHERS
investments in human capital have a far more import-
ant role in both advanced and emerging econo mies.
They point to new statistical datasets, including K LEMS
(BEA,2022) that support the analysis of hum an capital
alongside other components of productivity.
The OECD has been a critical player in innovation
policy, collecting and disseminating economic and edu-
cation data to support the development of sc ience and
technology policies in Western countries (Godin,2004),
including methods and standard d efinitions that en-
abled comparison across countr ies, published as the
Frascati Manual in 1963 and updated regularly since
(OECD,2015).
Subsequent UNESCO involvement in R&D data
gathering and dissemination has helped to enable
comparisons across countries on a g lobal scale
(UNESC O, 2014). UNESCO adopted the OECD
Frascati Manual as the reference tool for their global
data collection and suppor ted community work to fur-
ther harmonize and update definitions between 2010
and 2015. The definition of R&D was updated to: ‘cre-
ative and systematic work undertaken to increase the
stock of knowledge – including knowle dge of human-
kind, culture and society – and to devise new applica-
tions of available knowledge’. (OECD,2015).
This change, encompassing soc ial sciences and
humanities, traditional knowledge, as well as new
data coding and collection advice to developing coun-
tries, along with increasing attention to human c apital
in economic growth, compel s us to examine how ‘re-
searcher’ is defined. The updated R&D definition ex-
poses assumptions about training, degree, discipline,
employment sector, and primary outputs, and opens
opportunities for a more holisti c and global analysis
of innovation capacity (Carayannis et al.,20 18; Lau &
Lo,2015; Radziszewski,2020; Schmidt,2010 ) than was
afforded by the data prior to 2015.
The U.S. National Science Board's Science &
Engineering Indicators (2020) measures R&D intensity
as the ratio of GERD (Gross Domestic Expenditures
on Research & Development) to GDP (Gross Domestic
Product). Whilst R&D personnel figures have been re-
ported for many years (see Jackson,196 6), they focus
on the numbers of people and do not enco mpass the
human capital productivity noted above.
UNESCO reports 7.8 million full- time equivalents
(FTE) researchers in 2013 (UNESCO,2013). This fig-
ure represents firm- reported emp loyment data from
G20 countries, only 10% of all countries in the world.
With university programs graduating do ctorates in over
160 countries and ranked universities in over 100 coun-
tries, the UNESCO figure is surely an undercount.
To get at research human capital, we need to know
the number of researchers (often measured as R&D
personnel) in a place, as well as their educational c har-
acteristics. With that information, we can infer the R&D
sector capacity in that countr y and better understand
knowledge sharing on a local and gl obal scale, in pri-
vate, public and government sectors (Kristjánsson
et al.,2014; Wagner et al.,2015). In turn, this can provide
a strategic framework for nations to develop and sup-
port human capital for activit ies necessary for solving
the world's challenging sustainable development goals.
In this paper, we develop a measure of research
human capital density (RHCD) using publicly col-
lected data on R&D personnel. We hypothesize that
RHCD will better characterize the innovative capac-
ity of a country because it meas ures the most critical
input in the R&D process— the researchers. We use
this measure to address the following research ques-
tions: (1) How to estimate the number of researchers in
the world; (2) Is research human capital density a use-
ful variable in models of innovation capacity ? and (3)
Does research human capital densit y have explanatory
power for the research production functio n of research
outputs including patents and publicatio ns? Next, we
used this measure in cross- national estimates of pub-
lications and patents to determine whether RHCD has
sufficient explanatory power. Our results show that
Policy Implications
• To align with the more inclusive definition
of ‘researcher’ in the 2015 Frascati manual,
‘researcher’ and ‘R&D person’ should be
equated in UNESCO data as any person that
engages in or provides services to dire ctly
support R&D as a primary or sec ondary ac-
tivity during their workday.
• Firm- based (employer) surveys provide in-
sight on R&D activities at the organization,
sector, and national level. However, they do
not shed light on the occupations or ed uca-
tional background of the people engaged
in research activities. We recommend that
UNESCO adopt individual and occupational
surveys to measure self- reported research
and development work activities to suppor t
more inclusive assessment of R&D person-
nel, education flows, and innovation capacity.
• We encourage countries to augment their in-
dustrial reporting with oc cupational surveys to
better understand the relationships between
educational investments and workforce. An
option is to implement this data collection
through census procedures, or through a reg -
ular survey of tertiary education c ompleters.
• R&D firms can assist with the determination
of human capital density by surveying em-
ployees and providing anonymized educa-
tional data to national statistical agencies.
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