How the Electoral Map of England and Wales has been Redrawn
| Published date | 01 June 2024 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/20419058241260780a |
| Author | Jamie Furlong,Will Jennings |
| Date | 01 June 2024 |
4 POLITICAL INSIGHT • JUNE 2024
What is it about places
that leads them to vote
in particular ways? And
why do certain places
diverge from what might be expected
based on the demographic characteristics
of the voters who live there? There has
been a resurgence of interest in electoral
geography in recent years, as events such
as the referendum on UK membership of
the EU and election of Donald Trump as US
President in 2016 have highlighted stark
divides in political values and behaviour
between places. While those divides often
reflect social and economic differences
between places, and the appeals of parties
and candidates to their populations, some
areas defy prediction.
Our forthcoming book with Oxford
University Press explores both how the places
that vote for the Conservative and Labour
parties have changed over the 40 years, from
the start of Margaret Thatcher’s premiership
in 1979 to Boris Johnson’s decisive victory in
2019, and why Labour or the Conservatives
‘over-achieve’ in some places compared
with expectations based on demographics
alone. Through extensive analysis of
constituency-level results for every election
during this period, we show how changes
in the socioeconomic and demographic
structure of society have impacted upon the
How the Electoral Map
of England and Wales
has been Redrawn
Jamie Furlong and Will Jennings plot the shifting electoral
geography of England and Wales ahead of the General Election.
spatial distribution of voters. Combined with
changing party support amongst dierent
groups of voters, this has resulted in a long-
term but recently accelerating realignment
of the geographical basis of electoral
competition in England and Wales. Through
qualitative research in Merseyside and
Lincolnshire, we also present new evidence
for the contextual factors that have led to
distinct electoral trajectories in these areas.
Three types of ‘left behindedness’
There has been much recent discussion
of so-called ‘left behind’ places in England
and Wales (Ford and Goodwin, 2014).
Often these areas are assumed to be
largely homogenous. However, electoral
trends differ significantly between three
types of left behind area. The first type –
demographically left behind constituencies
Political Insight June 2024 BU.indd 4Political Insight June 2024 BU.indd 4 23/05/2024 15:2823/05/2024 15:28
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