Impeding fatal violence through third-party diplomacy: The effect of mediation on conflict intensity

AuthorConstantin Ruhe
DOI10.1177/0022343320930072
Published date01 July 2021
Date01 July 2021
Impeding fatal violence through third-party
diplomacy: The effect of mediation on
conflict intensity
Constantin Ruhe
Goethe University Frankfurt am Main & German Development Institute Bonn & Peace Research Institute
Frankfurt
Abstract
Existingresearch provides no systematic insightsinto if and how mediation impedesbattle-related deaths.Therefore, this
article presents a temporally disaggregated analysis and assesses the effect of mediation on monthly fatal violence. The
articlepredicts that adversariesevaluate opponents’trustworthinessfrom both fightingand negotiationbehavior. It argues
that reducingfighting intensityduring negotiationsis a sign of cooperation, whichcan be negotiated by mediatorsto build
trust.Over the course of mediation,the content of negotiationsprovides informationabout how genuinelya conflict party
is interestedin conflict resolution.Only if mediation achieves negotiation of core incompatibilitieswill conflict parties be
willing to reduce fighting intensity. Under theseconditions, information revealed in a mediation process can build trust
and substantively reduce violence. An empirical analysis of all African conflicts between 1993 and 2007 supports this
prediction and shows that on average mediation is followed by substantive and lasting reductions in fatal violence, if
mediation discusses the conflict’s main incompatibility. In contrast,mediation on other topics is associated with a small,
fleeting reduction in violence.Data of battle-related fatalities in Syria duringnegotiations as well as qualitative evidence
further support the theoretical mechanism and the model prediction. The study concludes that mediation can reduce
conflict intensity substantively, if it achieves exchange between conflict parties on the main conflict issues.
Keywords
civil war, conflict intensity, conflict resolution, mediation, negotiation, reciprocity
Introduction
The impact of third-party mediation on conflict lethality
is a question of great policy relevance. Nevertheless, we
have little quantitative evidence about how effectively
meditation prevents conflict fatalities. Moreover, we do
not know whether such an effect persists over time. In
this article, I examine the effect of mediation on battle-
related deaths and theoretically and empirically illumi-
nate the dynamic relationship of bargaining and fighting.
Mediation is one of the most frequent conflict resolu-
tion efforts in civil wars. Between 1945 and 1999 alone,
Regan, Frank & Aydin (2009) code 352 mediations.
1
In
Syria, one of the most brutal wars in recent history, a
mediation effort was initiated through the Geneva talks
between the Syrian government and rebel representatives
in February 2016,after years of fighting. It cumulated in a
partial ceasefire agreement (Barnard, 2016). However, the
agreement led merely to a brief reduction in fatality num-
bers (Barnard, Samaan & Watkins, 2016). The present
article evaluates if, on average, mediation is able to achieve
a change in intensity which lastslonger than a few months.
The effect on battle intensity has not been analyzed by
mediation scholars thus far. Most existing research exam-
ines whether mediation increases the probability of a
signed agreement (cf. Clayton, 2013; Greig, 2015;
Corresponding author:
Ruhe@soz.uni-frankfurt.de
1
On average, e.g. African conflicts see eight diplomatic
interventions.
Journal of Peace Research
2021, Vol. 58(4) 687–701
ªThe Author(s) 2020
Article reuse guidelines:
sagepub.com/journals-permissions
DOI: 10.1177/0022343320930072
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