In Focus: Frozen Frontiers: Geopolitical Dynamics in the Arctic
| Published date | 01 September 2023 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/20419058231198580 |
| Author | Benjamin D. Hennig |
| Date | 01 September 2023 |
20POLITICAL INSIGHT•SEPTEMBER 2023
In Focus
Frozen Frontiers:
Geopolitical Dynamics
in the Arctic
Benjamin D. Hennig navigates the complex geopolitical issues in the
Arctic, as climate change opens up the possibility of exploiting the
region’s vast natural resources.
The polar regions, the Arctic and
Antarctica, are among the most
remote parts of the world. But
they are also, increasingly, the
final frontiers of geopolitical rivalries.
Geographical claims in Antarctica
remain a complex and sensitive matter,
governed by the Antarctic Treaty System
which effectively suspended any territorial
claims in the region for the time being. The
situation in the Arctic is very different. The
North Pole is not a single continent, instead
it consists of the Arctic Ocean surrounded
by islands and land areas that are part of
sovereign nations. Therefore, the region is
governed through the sovereignty of the
countries that have territory within the
Arctic Circle (North of 66°34’N).
The Arctic region is characterised by its
vast resources, including oil, gas, minerals,
and sheries. Due to the melting ice caused
by climate change, these are becoming
increasingly accessible. This sea ice map
shows the most recent maximum and
minimum sea ice levels compared to the
long-term median extent. Overall sea ice has
declined in both area and volume – with
seasonal variation possible due to extreme
weather conditions that have become
more frequent due to global warming.
Such increasing accessibility as well as
technological advances have led to a growth
in territorial claims over the region.
Six nations share direct territorial claims
in the Arctic through their exclusive
economic zones (EEZ) that reach into
the international waters above the Arctic
Circle. These zones reach 200 nautical miles
from the coast of the state as depicted
in the political map shown opposite. The
United Nations Convention on the Law
of the Sea states that any coastal state
within the EEZ possesses sovereign rights
to explore, exploit, conserve, and manage
both living and non-living natural resources
found in the waters above the seabed
and the seabed itself, including its subsoil.
Additionally, the coastal state has the
authority to engage in various economic
activities in the zone, such as harnessing
energy from water, currents, and winds.
While being situated within the Arctic
Circle, Sweden and Finland have no
coastline in the region and are therefore
excluded from claims to the territorial
seas there. Denmark’s territorial claims
are made through Greenland which is an
autonomous territory within the Kingdom
of Denmark, as are the Faroe Islands whose
EEZ does not reach into Arctic waters.
Climate change has made the Arctic
more relevant geopolitically and increased
the potential for conflict in the region.
Concerns over the environmental
exploitation of the region led to the
establishment of the Arctic Council in
1996. This is constituted of all states
with territories in the Arctic, including
Finland and Sweden, and described as
an intergovernmental organisation to
cooperate on sustainable development
and environmental protection in the Arctic.
Several non-Arctic nations, including China
and the UK, have received observer status.
Like the Antarctic Treaty, the Arctic
Council’s stated goals include promoting
cooperation on environmental protection.
Nevertheless, both polar regions remain
vulnerable to geopolitical conflicts.
Russia plays a central role in the Arctic's
geopolitical dynamics. Melting ice caps
open up the possibility for new commercial
shipping lanes, which would be particularly
advantageous to Moscow. Summer ice has
been receding especially quickly along the
Northeast passage which leads along large
parts of Russian territorial claims in the
region. This route cuts the transit between
East Asia and Europe by up to 3000 nautical
miles during the increasing ice-free
periods and therefore is of vital strategic
importance. Building infrastructure and
navigation rules for these routes bring
with them potential maritime disputes and
increased environmental degradation.
Russia has also been investing heavily
in military infrastructure along its Arctic
territories. Moreover, the repercussions
of the Ukraine war have led to a
reconfiguration of alliances, contributing
to an even stronger geopolitical imbalance
within the Arctic Council. Notably, Russia,
as the soon sole non-NATO member state,
finds itself opposite Arctic nations that are
all linked to NATO. Yet Russia also exercises
control over more than half of the Arctic
coastline, which encompasses strategically
significant areas projected to be the first to
become free of summer ice. Future conflicts
and a new – almost literal – cold war seem
inevitable if no diplomatic solutions to this
imbalance are found.
The Arctic is not ‘empty land’. The region
Political Insight September 2023.indd 20Political Insight September 2023.indd 2014/08/2023 12:2414/08/2023 12:24
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