In Focus: Mapping Disillusionment: The 2024 US Presidential Election
| Published date | 01 December 2024 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/20419058241305488 |
| Author | Benjamin D. Hennig |
| Date | 01 December 2024 |
16POLITICAL INSIGHT•DECEMBER 2024
In Focus
Mapping Disillusionment:
The 2024 US Presidential Election
For years, maps have visually
represented the deep divides in
US politics, illustrating the growing
urban-rural split and the hyper-partisan
nature of the contemporary American voter.
While mapping techniques, such as population-
weighted cartograms, can oer nuanced views
on the country’s political terrain, they also
expose the reality beyond the mere geography.
Despite the diversity in American geography,
the nation's political landscape has become
profoundly entrenched. Electoral outcomes
in most states are cemented long before
polling day. Donald Trump’s sweeping victory
in November came by winning the handful
of battleground states truly in play – Arizona,
Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania,
Michigan, and Wisconsin.
The 2024 election vividly illustrates how
the current system reinforces a binary politics,
leading to a form of political entrenchment
where outcomes in 43 of the 50 states are
essentially predetermined. Voter disillusionment
with the democratic process and what is
perceived as the structures designed by and for
the establishment is a result of this, something
that Trump's victory clearly demonstrated.
Trump has played directly into this structural
imbalance. Trump’s rhetoric has frequently
focused on perceived aws in the American
electoral system, presenting himself as the
answer to a broken, overly bureaucratic
establishment that fails to adequately represent
‘real’ Americans. This narrative resonates
with voters who feel sidelined by a system
that eectively renders their votes politically
inconsequential if they are not living in one of
the few battleground states. Trump’s unexpected
victory in 2016 empowered this discontent. By
2024, his dominance was such that in 23 states
he managed to secure over 55 per cent of the
vote: Kamala Harris, by contrast, registered
such a strong performance in only 13 states.
This year fewer states than ever yielded narrow
margins, with a concentrated set of swing states
determining the election.
In a system where electoral power is
concentrated within a small group of swing
states, citizens in the remaining states
are eectively sidelined. This risks feeding
cynicism towards the democratic process
and system. Trump’s appeal lies in his
challenge to traditional democratic norms
and his willingness to advocate for ‘outsider’
approaches to governance. He is not hiding
his readiness to dismantle establishment
structures. His presidential bid appealed
more than before to those disillusioned by a
democracy that seems unable to serve the
improvement of large shares of the population
in a highly unequal society.
The cartographic series of the 2024 election
reects the hyper-partisan environment the
day after the election. Conventional maps
such as the one shown here (top map) have
always visually emphasised Republican-leaning
rural states and areas, while cartograms by
resizing states based on population reveal the
concentration of traditionally Democratic-
leaning more densely populated states and
regions.
In the 2024 election the contrast between
conventional maps and cartograms (middle
map) is much less evident at state level than in
previous elections, which demonstrates Kamala
Harris's inability to convince or mobilise the
Democratic electorate. Trump can undoubtedly
claim this as a signicant victory that leaves little
doubt in the American electorate's choice. He
won the popular vote and considerably increased
his total number of votes compared to both the
2016 and the 2020 Presidential elections.
The hexagon cartogram (bottom map)
provides perhaps the most accurate picture
Benjamin D. Hennig charts America’s political landscape after
Donald Trump’s election win – and finds an electorate marked by
polarisation, disillusionment and alienation.
of Trump’s victory. Each hexagon in this
map represents a federal state and is resized
according to the number of votes it holds in the
Electoral College. Only the winning candidate
is depicted (apart from Maine and Nebraska,
where the Electoral College vote is split). Also
indicated are the states that have changed
party preference since 2020, namely some of
the key battleground states. This map oers a
clear image of the Electoral College majority
that will elect Donald Trump as the 47th
President of the United States in January.
Each of the three maps reveals a dierent
facet of this deeply polarised electorate, but
together they point to a singular conclusion: a
divided America with an electoral structure that
increasingly disenfranchises large swathes of its
citizenry. Such a structure raises fundamental
questions for the future of American
democracy.
When citizens perceive that their votes
have little inuence, the democratic ideal
of an engaged electorate fades, opening
the door to gures like Trump who promise
radical departures from the status quo.
In such a polarised climate, his call for
‘something dierent’ appears to resonate
with disenfranchised voters that rally behind
promises of drastic solutions, a trend in
politics that can be observed in many other
democracies in recent years.
These maps and the story they tell remind
us that visualising election results is not just
about seeing who won. The images also raise
questions about the systemic divides that these
results reveal.
The maps of the 2024 Presidential Election
illustrate more than Trump’s victory; they depict
the entrenchment of American politics, the
polarisation of its electorate, and the structural
issues that continue to alienate vast portions
of the population. If this system remains
unchanged, the future of American democracy
may depend less on who wins than on whether
it can sustain (or regain) the trust of the general
population. The next four years may not provide
the solutions to challenge this disillusionment.
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