Internally displaced persons and the Cyprus peace process

AuthorIşık Kuşçu Bonnenfant,Neophytos Loizides,Huseyin Cakal,Charis Psaltis
Published date01 January 2020
DOI10.1177/0192512119872057
Date01 January 2020
Subject MatterSpecial Issue Articles
https://doi.org/10.1177/0192512119872057
International Political Science Review
2020, Vol. 41(1) 138 –154
© The Author(s) 2019
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DOI: 10.1177/0192512119872057
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Internally displaced persons
and the Cyprus peace process
Charis Psaltis
University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus
Huseyin Cakal
Keele University, Keele, UK
Neophytos Loizides
University of Kent, UK
Işık Kuşçu Bonnenfant
Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey
Abstract
The article focuses on Greek Cypriot internally displaced persons and their attitudes towards the island’s
reunification talks. We utilize quantitative data from two representative sample surveys, conducted in
2016–2017, which probed respondents on their views on territorial readjustments, property provisions
and power-sharing. Contrary to the current findings in the literature, internally displaced persons status
is associated with higher levels of support for a negotiated peace settlement. The article examines the
impact of anticipated threats and economic opportunities accompanying a settlement and suggests a set of
institutionalized mechanisms to incorporate the views of internally displaced persons and other disadvantaged
groups in future reunification talks.
Keywords
Peace agreements, federalism, internally displaced persons (IDPs), consociationalism, political attitudes
Corresponding author:
Professor Neophytos Loizides, School of Politics and International Relations, Rutherford College, University of Kent,
Canterbury, Kent CT2 7NX, UK.
Email: n.loizides@kent.ac.uk
872057IPS0010.1177/0192512119872057International Political Science ReviewPsaltis et al.
research-article2019
Special Issue Article
Psaltis et al. 139
Introduction
Peace processes rarely facilitate institutionalized internally displaced person (IDP) participation
nor do they encourage information gathering through public opinion surveys on their preferences.1
Cyprus provides a paradigmatic case where the right of return has been a key priority, especially
for Greek Cypriots, yet IDPs are not represented at negotiations, and there is no related research on
the potential advantages of their inclusion. This article addresses this gap in peace studies and
public opinion research using two public opinion surveys focusing on Greek Cypriot displaced
persons and their attitudes to the prospective political institutions of a reunited Cyprus. Our data,
collected before and after the 2017 United Nations (UN) peace talks, probes respondents’ possible
alternatives to the ‘Guterres package’, named after the UN Secretary General (UNSG) Antonio
Guterres.
The article’s main objectives are threefold. First, we focus on Greek Cypriot displaced persons
as the primary stakeholders in the Cyprus peace process. Although it is assumed the Greek Cypriot
IDPs could be potential beneficiaries of a settlement in the form of a bizonal bicommunal federa-
tion (BBF), little attention has been paid to their attitudes; a fundamental difference between the
two sides is that Greek Cypriots maintain ‘the right of return’ while Turkish Cypriots prioritize the
current status quo. We ask how this thinking affects their responses to a possible settlement.
Second, we highlight a broader question concerning the role of IDP-specific research in conflict
resolution studies. As Cyprus is now enjoying stability and increased communication between the
two main communities, we suggest lessons from the island could be applicable elsewhere. Third,
we incorporate in our analysis the social psychological antecedents of support for a prospective
solution or its lack thereof. By doing so, we locate a practical real-life political phenomenon of the
Cyprus peace process in everyday intergroup behaviour, past and present.
Intergroup relations and internally displaced persons
Existing research has demonstrated how perceived threats elicit behaviour to reduce exposure to risk
at both personal and group levels (Huddy et al., 2002). As a group-level process, perceived threats
from outgroup(s) are prevalent among those previously exposed to political violence and conflict
(Canetti-Nisim et al., 2009a, 2009b). It is important to consider how this experience, in the case of
Greek Cypriots’ displacement experience, affects present perceptions of threat and attitudes to a polit-
ical process designed to address it. An often-unchallenged view in the literature is that protracted
refugee situations produce radicalized populations (Adelman, 1998; Lischer 2015; Sude et al., 2015).
As refugees and IDPs suffer disproportionately during displacement campaigns, they may be more
likely to want revenge when opportunities arise (Achvarina and Reich, 2006; Bohnet et al., 2018;
Choi and Piazza, 2016). These tendencies could be aggravated if the right of return is either restricted
or difficult to implement after the passage of time, as in Cyprus. Thus far, the evidence on return in
post-conflict communities is mixed, with some finding it feasible under specific conditions (Stefanovic
and Loizides, 2017) and others, unrealistic (Adelman and Barkan, 2011; Zolberg et al., 1986). Even
though the literature identifies the pitfalls of securitizing displacement crises and their victims
(Greenhill, 2010; Jacobsen, 2002), few public opinion studies challenge these claims or point to
potential pro-peace attitudes among IDPs. To address this gap, our article highlights the exclusion-
amid-inclusion (EAI) dilemma (Agarin and McCulloch, this issue), probing the potential role of IDPs
as peace agents (rather than as unconditional or occasional spoilers). We argue that what is missing in
the Cyprus talks is not only designated IDP representation at the official level but also other inclusive
procedures involving, for instance, the inclusion of IDP representatives (including those in the

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