IV Political Process : Public Opinion, Attitudes, Parties, Forces, Groups and Elections / Vie Politique : Opinion Publique, Attitudes, Partis, Forces, Groupes et Élections
| Date | 01 June 2022 |
| DOI | 10.1177/00208345221106544 |
| Published date | 01 June 2022 |
357
IV
POLITICAL PROCESS : PUBLIC OPINION,
ATTITUDES, PARTIES, FORCES, GROUPS AND ELECTIONS
VIE POLITIQUE : OPINION PUBLIQUE,
ATTITUDES, PARTIS, FORCES, GROUPES ET ÉLECTIONS
72.3336 ABBOTT, Jared — When participation wins votes: explain-
ing the emergence of large-scale participatory democracy.
Comparative Politics 54(1), Oct. 2021 : online.
Why are large-scale participatory institutions implemented in some coun-
tries but only adopted on paper in others? I argue that nationwide imple-
mentation of Binding Participatory Institutions (BPIs) — a critical subtype
of participatory institutions — is dependent on the backing of a strong in-
stitutional supporter, often a political party. In turn, parties will only imple-
ment BPIs if they place a lower value on the political costs than on the
potential benefits of implementation. This will be true if: (1) significant so-
cietal demand exists for BPI implementation and (2) the party’s political
opponents cannot take advantage of BPIs for their own gain. I test this
theory through two detailed case studies of Venezuela and Ecuador, draw-
ing on 165 interviews with key national-level actors and grassroots activ-
ists. [R]
72.3337 ACHARYA, Amitav — Race and racism in the founding of
the modern world order. International Affairs 98(1), Jan.
2022 : 239-43.
While race existed as a cultural marker in earlier history, a mutually-rein-
forcing link between racism, slavery and empire is a distinct product of
western Europe and the US-led world order. Yet, mainstream IR scholar-
ship has obscured the question of race or worse, legitimized its exclusion
in discussions of world order-building. At the same time, demand for racial
equality from anti-colonial forces presented an alternative and inclusive
conception of world order. This article offers a brief discussion of concepts
of race, racism and world order. It examines how racist ideas and norms
created exclusionary frameworks and approaches of world order, such as
the European ‘standard of civilization’ principle. The third part looks at the
role of racism in the emergence of the American-led world order. [R, abr.]
[See Abstr. 72.3984]
72.3338 AGERBERG, Mattias ; SOHLBERG, Jacob — Personal prox-
imity and reactions to terrorism. Comparative Political Stud-
ies 54(14), Dec. 2021 : 2512-2545.
In a panel study where one survey was conducted immediately after a ter-
rorist attack in central Stockholm, with over 20,000 participants, we exam-
ine the possibility that first-hand experiences with terror increases effects
compared to people located elsewhere in Sweden. We use matching and
as-if random variation in our data to identify the effect of personal proxim-
ity. While we find that people close to the attack perceived themselves as
more affected, attesting to the vividness of the experience, we find no ev-
idence of stronger rally effects, greater outgroup dislike, preferences for
security policies or emotional effects. The results challenge previous the-
ories on public opinion change in the aftermath of vivid events. In line with
prior research, however, the results indicate that public opinion among
people across Sweden did change on a range of issues. [R, abr.]
72.3339 AHRENS, Petra ; AYOUB, Phillip M. ; LANG, Sabine — Lead-
ing from behind? Gender equality in Germany during the
Merkel era. German Politics 31(1), 2022 : 1-19.
Germany has historically been a laggard in adopting gender equality
measures. The European Gender Equality Index, however, now ranks
Germany relatively high and shows substantial progress since 2005. While
this has gone mostly unnoticed, Germany has passed far-reaching legis-
lation in major policy fields relevant for gender equality. This expansive
policy adoption occurred during the chancellorship of Angela Merkel, but
we need to know more about how policy measures introduced by con-
servative governments affect gender norms and gender culture, and if they
ultimately lead to effective implementation and greater equality. Investigat-
ing the effects of Merkel's tenure on gender equality, we assess policy
output and outcomes with a focus on internal power dynamics in Germany,
as well as international and EU-level pressures in the policy domains of
political representation, LGBTI rights, migration, the labor market, and
care. [R, abr.] [Introduction to a thematic issue of the same title. See also
Abstr. 72.3340, 3341, 3363, 3574, 3667, 3704, 3798, 3829, 3872]
72.3340 AHRENS, Petra ; LANG, Sabine — Angela Merkel and the
CDU quota curse. German Politics 31(1), 2022 : 40-58.
During the 2019 centennial celebration of women’s suffrage in Germany,
Chancellor Angela Merkel conceded that gender quotas are important and
that the ultimate goal must be gender parity. Merkel’s legacy in terms of
advancing women within her own party, however, is mixed. Surrounding
herself with a tight circle of women, she nonetheless remained noncom-
mittal on parity. Her support for the ‘quorum’, a 33 per cent inner-party
‘quota light’ adopted in 1996, appeared muted and inconsequential. Ana-
lyzing gender-disaggregated party and electoral data with insights gleaned
from semi-structured interviews with party members, this article sheds light
on CDU quota implementation challenges. We assess inner-party politics
and policies within the context of the CDU’s struggle to attract female vot-
ers, to respond to an increasingly progressive Women’s Union, and to ac-
commodate its Bavarian sister party, the CSU. [R, abr.] [See Abstr.
72.3339]
72.3341 AHRENS, Petra ; SCHEELE, Alexandra — Game-changers
for gender equality in Germany’s labour market? Corpo-
rate board quotas, pay transparency and temporary part-
time work. German Politics 31(1), 2022 : 157-176.
With a women’s employment rate of 76.6 per cent, Germany now ranks
among the top EU countries regarding equal labor market participation.
However, substantial differences in the employment patterns of women
and men persist in the form of ‘typical’ women’s and men’s jobs, women’s
underrepresentation in higher management, a high women’s part-time rate
and a considerable gender pay gap. Since 2005, four CDU-led govern-
ments have adopted various labor laws, with the most recent of these po-
tentially transforming gendered inequalities. The article examines the im-
plementation impact of the latest labor market reforms and discusses the
ways in which they are potential game-changers in transforming the Ger-
man gendered labor market. [R, abr.] [See Abstr. 72.3339]
72.3342 AHUJA, Amit ; NASEEMULLAH, Adnan ; OSTERMANN, Su-
san — Anticorruption politics versus democratic deepen-
ing and welfare in India. Asian Survey 61(5), Sept.-Oct.
2021 : 825-853.
Eliminating corruption is seen as a practice that supports democratic gov-
ernance. We argue, however, that particular anticorruption politics in con-
temporary India can damage the project of democratic deepening, be-
cause elites often deploy these politics against the representation of the
marginalized. Anticorruption politics can subvert democratic deepening by
challenging as corrupt the means by which the parties of the marginalized
mobilize resources to compete in elections and by selectively targeting
lower-caste political leaders for indictment on corruption charges within an
overall discriminatory politics of deservedness. Anticorruption governance
by parties in power seriously hinders the provision of welfare to the poor
because of the technocratic and centralizing character of the governance
reforms. [R, abr.]
72.3343 AKSOY, Faruk — Voting rules, context, and public recog-
nition in closed primaries: an empirical case study from
Turkey. Representation 57(4), 2021 : 531-549.
In this paper, there will be an analysis of the 2015 closed parliamentary
primaries of the Republican People's Party of Turkey in Istanbul. It will be
argued that the voting rules of RPP's primaries in the context of Istanbul
boosted the importance of public recognition as compared with the im-
portance of experience in party offices, which is expected to be one of the
most rewarding characteristics for candidates in closed primaries. [R]
72.3344 Al-FAHAM, Hajer — Researching American Muslims: a
case study of surveillance and racialized state control.
Perspectives on Politics 19(4), Dec.2021 : 1131-1146.
How does surveillance shape political science research in the United
States? I examine surveillance of American Muslims, an understudied
Political process : public opinion, attitudes, parties, forces, groups and elections
358
case of racialized state control. Drawing on qualitative data from a case
study of sixty-nine interviews with Arab and Black American Muslims, I
argue that surveillance operated as a two-stage political mechanism that
mapped onto research methodologically and substantively. In the first
stage, surveillance reconfigured the researcher-researchee dynamic, hin-
dered recruitment and access, and limited data-collection. In the second
stage, surveillance colored the self-perceptions, political attitudes, and
civic engagement of respondents, thereby indicating a political socializa-
tion unfolding among Muslims. The implications of this study suggest that
researchers can mitigate against some, but not all, of the challenges pre-
sented by surveillance and concomitant forms of state control. [R, abr.]
72.3345 ALRABABA’H, Ala’, et al. — Can exposure to celebrities re-
duce prejudice? The effect of Mohamed Salah on Islam-
ophobic behaviors and attitudes. American Political Science
Review 115(4), Nov. 2021 : 1111-1128.
We study the case of Mohamed Salah, a visibly Muslim, elite soccer
player. Using data on hate-crime reports throughout England and 15 mil-
lion tweets from British soc cer fans, we find that after Salah joined Liver-
pool F.C., hate crimes in the Liverpool area dropped by 16% compared
with a synthetic control, and Liverpool F.C. fans halved their rates of post-
ing anti-Muslim tweets relative to fans of other top-flight clubs. An original
survey experiment suggests that the salience of Salah’s Muslim identity
enabled positive feelings toward Salah to generalize to Muslims more
broadly. Our findings provide support for the parasocial contact hypothesis
— indicating that positive exposure to out-group celebrities can spark real-
world behavioral changes in prejudice. [R, abr.]
72.3346 ALTMAN, David ; SAìNCHEZ, Clemente T. — Citizens at the
polls: direct democracy in the world, 2020. Taiwan Journal
of Democracy 17(2), Dec.2021 : 27-48.
There is suggestive evidence that the growth of democracy has stagnated,
and even some signs indicate that democracy is in retreat. In such a con-
text, one might have expected to witness an increase in experimentation
with democratic innovations such as direct democracy. This is not the
case. While there is a spectacular and statistically significant increase in
the uses of mechanisms of direct democracy (MDDs) since the early
1990s, 2020 remained notably similar to the previous years in terms of the
level of direct democracy worldwide. In 2019, we witnessed less than half
of the MDDs we saw in 2018 (eighteen vs. fifty), but, in 2020, the count
bounced back to thirty. The COVID-19 pandemic did not halt the march of
direct democracy, although it delayed some of its events. Beyond the spe-
cific number of popular votes in 2020, direct democracy still tracks almost
perfectly with global electoral democracy trends. [R, abr.]
72.3347 ALUKO, Benjamin Adeniran ; FAOKOREDE, Gabriel Adeshina
— Electoral violence and its implications on voters partic-
ipation in the 2019 elections in Ogun state, Nigeria. African
Journal of International Affairs and Development 23, 2019 : 82-
103.
Electoral security, peace, law and order are critical factors that facilitate
effective voters participation in elections in particular and meaningful en-
gagement in democratic processes in general. Unfortunately, electoral
processes in Nigeria are characterized reaction by high level of violence,
most times culminating in the loss of lives and destruction of property. In
light of the foregoing this paper interrogated the rising phenomenon of
elections related violence and its implications of voters participation in the
2019 elections in Ogun state, Nigeria. This paper concluded that the es-
sence of essence of democratic governance is realizable largely within the
context of popular political participation and thus recommended the need
to rejig the nation's electoral system and politics towards promoting elec-
tron security and good governance. [R]
72.3348 ANDERSON, Ashley — “Networked” revolutions? ICTs and
protest mobilization in non-democratic regimes. Political
Research Quarterly 74(4), Dec.2021 : 1037-1051.
Despite the wealth of research linking Internet-based communication tech-
nologies (ICTs) with the rise of anti-government demonstrations in non-
democracies, empirical evidence on the impact of ICTs on protest remains
inconclusive. Using data from the sixth-wave of the World Values Survey
(WVS), I test the relationship between ICT use and protest in non-democ-
racies, finding that although Internet use helps to explain protest participa-
tion, organizational networks remain crucial for mobilizing protesters, even
in the digital age. Notably, I find that active membership in formal organi-
zations (i.e., attending meetings, holding leadership positions, etc.) signif-
icantly increases the likelihood of individual protest participation, providing
members with the skills necessary for political engagement and connec-
tions to a sustained flow of information about protest events. Most im-
portant, I find significant interactive effects between organizational mem-
bership and ICT use — while Internet use increases the likelihood of pro-
test engagement for all individuals, the effects of ICT use are greatest for
multiply-engaged citizens who are actively involved in both online and of-
fline organizational networks. [R, abr.]
72.3349 ANDERSSON, Henrik ; DEHDARI, Sirus H. — Workplace
contact and support for anti-immigration parties. American
Political Science Review 115(4), Nov. 2021 : 1159-1174.
How does an increased presence of immigrants in the workplace affect
anti-immigration voting behavior? While cooperative interactions between
natives and immigrants can reduce intergroup prejudice, immigrant
coworkers might be regarded as a threat to native-born workers’ labor
market position. We combine detailed Swedish workplace data with pre-
cinct-level election outcomes for a large anti-immigration party (the Swe-
den Democrats) to study how the share of non-Europeans in the work-
place affects opposition to immigration. We show that the share of non-
Europeans in the workplace has a negative effect on support for the Swe-
den Democrats and that this effect is solely driven by same-skill contact in
small workplaces. [R, abr.]
72.3350 ANYIDOHO, Nana Akua ; CRAWFORD, Gordon ; MEDIE,
Peace A. — The role of women's movements in the imple-
mentation of gender-based violence laws. Politics and Gen-
der 17(3), Sept. 2021 : 427-453.
The question of whether social movements can catalyze change has pre-
occupied researchers but an understanding of how such change can be
created is equally important. Specifically, there has been little investigation
of how women's movements engage in the process of implementation of
women's rights laws. We use a case study of Ghana's Domestic Violence
Coalition to examine the challenges that movements face in the policy im-
plementation process. The Domestic Violence Coalition, a collective of
women's rights organizations, was instrumental to the passage of Ghana's
Domestic Violence Act in 2007. Our study investigates the coalition's sub-
sequent attempts to influence the act's implementation. Drawing from the
social movement literature, we apply an analytical framework consisting of
three internal factors (strategies, movement infrastructure, and framing)
and two external factors (political context and support of allies) that have
mediated the coalition's impact on implementation. [R, abr.]
72.3351 APOSTOLIDIS, Paul — Desperate responsibility: precarity
and right-wing populism. Political Theory 50(1), Feb. 2022 :
114-141.
This essay explores the mutual reinforcements between socioeconomic
precarity and right-wing populism, and then envisions a politics that con-
tests Trumpism through workers’ organizations that create alternatives to
predominant patterns of subject formation through work. I firs t revisit my
recent critique of precarity, which initiates a new method of critical theory
informed by Paulo Freire’s political pedagogy of popular education. Read-
ing migrant day laborers’ commentaries on their work experiences along-
side critical accounts of today’s general work culture, this “critical-popular”
procedure yields a conception of precarity with two defining characteris-
tics. First, precarity is socially bivalent: it singles out specific groups for
especially harsh treatment even as it pervades society. Second, precarity
constitutes subjects through contradictory experiences of time in everyday
work-life, exacerbated by insoluble dilemmas of moral responsibility. [R,
abr.]
72.3352 ARAS, Bülent ; HELMS, Ludger — The limits of institution-
alizing predominance: understanding the emergence of
Turkey’s new opposition. European Political Science 20(4),
2021 : 592-602.
This article offers an institutionalist assessment of the more recent chap-
ters of political opposition in Erdoğan’s Turkey. There is good reason to
suppose that the institutional features of a given regime can explain the
performance of opposition parties to a significant extent. That said, the
case of Turkey provides impressive evidence that there are striking limits
to institutionalizing political predominance, to undermining political oppo-
sitions by institutional means, and to explaining the performance of oppo-
sition parties with the prevailing institutional resources and constraints.
Specifically, attempts at institutionalizing a predominant power status
carry particular risks of generating inverse effects, including increased po-
litical vulnerability. However, there are no automatic effects. Rather, as the
Turkish experience suggests, reasonably vigorous actors to become polit-
ically relevant must seize the particular (if usually limited) oppo rtunities
arising from advanced institutional autocratization. [R] [See Abstr.
72.3803]
72.3353 ARAÚJO, Victor ; GATTO, Malu A. C. — Can conservatism
make women more vulnerable to violence? Comparative
Political Studies 55(1), Jan. 2022 : 122-153.
Violence against women (VAW) affects at least 35% of women worldwide.
The need to combat VAW is seemingly noncontroversial: As existing work
shows, ideology does not explain governments’ propensity to adopt anti-
VAW legislation. Yet, effectively implementing anti-VAW legislation re-
quires complex policy frameworks at odds with conservative values. Vot-
ers’ preferences can meaningfully influence policy outputs, so can elec-
toral conservatism make women more vulnerable to violence? Employing
Vie politique : opinion publique, attitudes, partis, forces, groupes et élections
359
data from 5570 Brazilian municipalities, we find that conservatism in the
electorate is associated with the adoption of fewer anti-VAW policies. With
data from a nationally representative survey of Brazilian respondents (N =
2086), we then show that conservative voters are less likely to prioritize
the need for tackling VAW. That is, the adoption of fewer anti-VAW policies
in conservative municipalities reflects conservative voters’ policy prefer-
ences. [R, abr.]
72.3354 ARCHER, Allison M. N. ; DARR, Joshua P. — Gubernatorial
elections change demand for local newspapers. American
Politics Research 50(1), Jan. 2022 : 52-66.
How do partisans react when their candidate wins or loses a gubernatorial
election? Previous work shows that when parties win presidential elec-
tions, demand for their affiliated local newspapers decreases relative to
the losing party’s newspapers. However, it is unclear if this negative link
extends beyond presidential races into state-level elections. To test this
relationship, we analyze demand for partisan and non-partisan newspa-
pers in Virginia and New Jersey — two states that hold off-cycle guberna-
torial elections with no competition from federal elections — from 1933 to
2005. We find demand for local newspapers associated with the winning
party declines after gubernatorial elections compared to demand for other
newspapers. The results also shed light on whether (and which) w inning
partisans are disengaging completely or shifting their consu mption to in-
dependent newspapers. [R, abr.]
72.3355 ARGOTE, Pablo — Does voluntary voting enhance parti-
san Bias? Evidence from Chile. Journal of Latin American
Studies 53(3), Aug. 2021 : 547-571.
Although partisan bias — when an authority transfers discretionary public
resources to a politically aligned receiver — has been extensively studied,
less is known about how this practice is affected by the voting regime —
compulsory or voluntary voting. In this article, I study partisan bias in Chile,
using administrative data of transfers from the central authority to local
governments, highlighting two relevant scope conditions: the electoral cy-
cle, and electoral uncertainty caused by the adoption of voluntary voting. I
found strong evidence of partisan bias, especially in election years and in
electorally riskier municipalities. This suggests that the uncertainty intro-
duced by this electoral reform induced politicians to allocate a large share
of resources to risky municipalities, because such resources would play a
more significant role in the electoral outcome. [R, abr.]
72.3356 ARRINGTON, Celeste L. — Insider activists and
secondhand smoke countermeasures in Japan. Asian Sur-
vey 61(4), July-Aug. 2021 : 559-590.
Long considered a smoker’s paradise, Japan passed its strictest regula-
tions yet on indoor smoking in 2018 with revisions to the Health Promotion
Law and a new ordinance in Tokyo. Timed for the Tokyo Olympics, both
reforms made smoking regulations stronger and more legalistic despite
reflecting distinctive policy paradigms in their particulars. The national reg-
ulations curtailed smoking in many public spaces but accommodated
smoking in small restaurants and bars. Tokyo’s stronger restrictions em-
phasized public health protection by exempting only eateries with no em-
ployees. I argue that fully understanding these contemporaneous reforms
requires analyzing insider activists: state actors who participated in the
tobacco control movement or had sustained interaction with it during ear-
lier reform waves. Case studies drawing on interviews and movement and
government documents illustrate the mechanisms insider activists can ac-
cess because they straddle multiple fields. [R, abr.]
72.3357 ARRINGTON, Nancy B. — Judicial merit selection: beliefs
about fairness and the undermining of gender diversity on
the bench. Political Research Quarterly 74(4), Dec. 2021 :
1152-1167.
Much attention is paid to how mechanisms for selecting political officials
shape which types of officials hold positions of power, but selection proce-
dures do not always produce the desired outcomes. In the context of the
judiciary, many expected “merit” selection procedures to facilitate the se-
lection of women justices to the bench, an expectation that has not been
realized. Applying theories of procedural fairness to judicial selection pro-
cedures, I argue that observers’ beliefs that merit selection procedures are
more “fair” (relative to unilateral selection procedures) makes observers
more accepting of all-male benches. Survey experimental evidence
demonstrates that respondents do perceive merit selection procedures as
more fair than gubernatorial selection procedures, a priori. In turn, re-
spondents are less critical of all-male courts when judges are selected
through a merit selection procedure. These findings contribute to our un-
derstanding of the ways in which (1) selection institutions shape prospects
for gender diversity, (2) institutional design can have unintended conse-
quences, and (3) procedural fairness can obscure accountability for
suboptimal outcomes. [R]
72.3358 ARRIOLA, Leonardo R. ; DEVARO, Jed ; MENG, Anne —
Democratic subversion: elite cooptation and opposition
fragmentation. American Political Science Review 115(4),
Nov. 2021 : 1358-1372.
Incumbents in electoral regimes often retain power despite having to reg-
ularly com pete in multiparty elections. We examine a specific channel
through which incumbents can seek to prevent the emergence of a strong
opposition that might threaten them in future elections. We present a for-
mal model demonstrating that incumbents can strategically induce oppo-
sition fragmentation by appointing some opposition members to ministerial
cabinet positions. Opposition politicians who have the opportunity to se-
cure a cabinet position in an incumbent’s government tend to compete for
office independently rather than coalescing into broad-based parties or
electoral alliances. Using original data on presidential elections across Af-
rican countries during 1990-2016, we show that past cooptation of oppo-
sition politicians is associated with a more fragmented opposition field in
subsequent elections. [R, abr.]
72.3359 ASANTE, Richard ; HERSHEY, Megan ; PATTERSON, Amy
— What motivates young African leaders for public en-
gagement? Lessons from Ghana, Tanzania, and Uganda.
International Journal of Politics, Culture and Society 34(3),
Sept. 2021 : 309-330.
Young people constitute a disproportionate share of the population in most
African countries, and as such, make up a key political demographic. The
discourse on youth political participation tends to focus narrowly on disen-
gaged, apathetic and troublesome youth. Yet, many African youth have
taken on leadership positions across the continent, engaging in politics,
civil society, and activism. This article seeks an understanding of what
drives their public engagement. Drawing on a qualitative study of 33 lead-
ers across Ghana, Tanzania, and Uganda, we argue that a range of indi-
vidual, relational, and societal factors entwine and build on each other to
foster youth leadership. Drawing on the socialization literature, we explore
individual-level determinants of engagement, including family, educational
experiences, purposive incentives, and identity. [R, abr.]
72.3360 ASHTON, Natalie Alana ; CRUFT, Rowan — Rethinking the
post-truth p olarisation narrative: social roles and hinge
commitments in the plural public sphere. Political Quarterly
92(4), Oct.-Dec. 2021 : 598-605.
This article critically evaluates what we call the ‘popular narrative’ about
the state of the public sphere. We identify three elements of this popular
narrative (the post-truth element, the polarization element and the new
technology element), and draw on philosophical work on hinge epistemol-
ogy and social roles to challenge each one. We propose, instead, that
public debate has always depended on non-evidential commitments, that
it has always been home to significant, deep division, and that social me-
dia, rather than causing these phenomena, has just made them more vis-
ible. Finally, we recommend some changes to traditional and social media
which we believe would help foster a healthier, more inclusive, public
sphere. [R] [First article of a thematic issue on "Regulating the public
sphere in a post-truth world", introduced, pp. 594-597, by Fay NIKER and
David YARROW. See also Abstr. 72.3779, 3814, 3896]
72.3361 ATAK, Idil ; ALROB, Zainab Abu ; ELLIS, Claire — Expanding
refugee ineligibility: Canada’s response to secondary ref-
ugee movements. Journal of Refugee Studies 34(3), Sept.
2021 : 2593-2612.
In 2019, Canada introduced legislative changes that made asylum seek-
ers ineligible for protection if they have made a previous refugee claim in
a country that Canada shares an information-sharing agreement with.
Such agreements are currently in place with the US, Australia, the UK, and
New Zealand. This article offers a critical assessment of the new ineligibil-
ity ground, arguing that the policy is designed to deter secondary refugee
movements, particularly those across the Canada-US border which have
considerably intensified since 2017. Based on the ‘first safe country’ rule,
the new ineligibility ground enables Canada to exclude some asylum seek-
ers from refugee protection without offering any alternative effective pro-
tection in Canada. This article demonstrates that the policy is inconsistent
with Canada’s obligations under international refugee law. [R]
72.3362 ATSUSAKA, Yuki — A logical model for predicting minority
representation: application to redistricting and voting
rights cases. American Political Science Review 115(4), Nov.
2021 : 1210-1225.
Understanding when and why minority candidates emerge and win in par-
ticular districts e ntails critical implications for redistricting and the Voting
Rights Act. I introduce a quantitatively predictive logical model of minority
candidate emergence and electoral success — a mathematical formula
based on deductive logic that can logically explain and accurately predict
the exact probability at which minority candidates run for office and win in
given districts. I show that the logical model can predict about 90% of
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