Last Word: Will Abortion Sway the 2024 US Presidential Election?
| Published date | 01 September 2024 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/20419058241282464 |
| Author | Emma Long |
| Date | 01 September 2024 |
48POLITICAL INSIGHT•SEPTEMBER 2024
Last Word
On one level, the issue of abortion
in US politics had been static for
decades. The 1973 Supreme Court
ruling in Roe v. Wade protecting a
woman’s right to terminate a pregnancy kept
a kind of stability in place. Republicans railed
against the decision, using the hope of getting
it overturned to motivate their voters, and at
state level found ways to place restrictions on
access without being able to ban it outright.
Democrats criticised Republican restrictions
and spoke out in general about the ‘right
to choose’, or ignored the topic completely,
safe in the knowledge that the constitutional
protections oered by Roe meant that there
was likely to be little major change. Polls
consistently showed that six in ten Americans,
including around 40 per cent of Republicans,
supported access to abortion, although not
unlimited access. Roe for most Americans was
simply a fact of life.
On 24 June 2022 the status quo was
upturned. In Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health
Organization the Supreme Court overturned
the ve decade-old precedent in Roe,
withdrew constitutional protections for the
right to choose, and handed the issue back to
the states to legislate.
Dobbs changed the balance, practically and
politically. Now, presidential candidates Donald
Trump and Kamala Harris face the rst election
in which a stance on abortion means more
than simply political posturing but speaks to
a daily reality for many Americans. And both
have to deal with the very real legacy that now
exists in a post-Roe world.
Currently, about half of states protect
abortion in some form, at least ten of which
have strengthened and expanded their
protections since Dobbs. On the other hand,
14 states have enacted outright abortion bans.
Another 11 states have gestational limits that
are earlier than the previous 24-week limit;
some so early that most people don’t even
yet know they are pregnant when they kick in.
More than half of states have other restrictions
which make abortion access harder, especially
for the poor, the disabled, and those in rural
areas: waiting time requirements, mandated
counselling, required ultrasounds, multiple
visits to the doctor, spousal or parental consent
laws and others.
The most recent estimates suggest 48 per
cent of women now live in states with some
form of abortion restrictions. That gure rises
to 57 per cent for black women and higher
for Native American women, both of whom
already have among the highest maternal
mortality rates of any group within the
developed world. The Guttmacher Institute,
a pro-choice research organisation, estimates
that almost one in ve pregnant people now
have to travel out of state for abortion access.
Before 2022, Republicans might have
expected a boost to their electoral chances
from a decision like Dobbs: they had worked
to overturn Roe for decades and nally
achieved it. And Trump, as the architect of the
conservative Supreme Court majority that
issued the ruling, might also have expected
a boost to his campaign. But so far there
has been little evidence of this, and some
indication that reproductive rights are actually
helping the Democrats.
In the 2022 midterms, Democrats
maintained a narrow majority in the Senate
and avoided a widely predicted rout in the
House. Polling suggests that abortion was a
key factor in motivating Democratic turnout,
especially in states where abortion-protective
initiatives were also on the ballot. With
potentially 11 states voting on such initiatives
in 2024, including the key swing state of
Arizona, Democrats will be hoping that their
experience in 2022 will play out again this year.
Harris’s campaign has recognised the
Will Abortion Sway the 2024
US Presidential Election?
Donald Trump’s support for strict abortion bans could push critical
moderate voters to his opponent Kamala Harris, writes Emma Long.
importance of abortion as an issue. As Vice
President, she took the lead on the Biden
administration’s response to Dobbs, visiting
an abortion clinic, holding reproductive
rights rallies, and releasing campaigns ads
focused on Dobbs and its consequences.
Since becoming the Democratic nominee
Harris has spoken about abortion at almost
all her rallies, and in Governor Tim Walz
she appointed a running mate with his
own history of supporting abortion rights.
Democrats are clearly looking to use the issue
to motivate core supporters and swing voters
in the same way Republicans have for the
past 40 years or so.
Republicans are now defending a record
of strict abortion bans in many red states.
That may cheer their base, but it risks
alienating the critical moderate voters
needed to win the presidential election,
especially that 40 per cent of pro-choice
Republicans. Ironically, the issue which has
been part of their core message for so long
now risks becoming a liability.
Some Republicans appear to recognise the
problem. State legislators in Nebraska and
South Carolina argued against a strict abortion
ban for fear of alienating moderate voters. For
the rst time since 2012, the Republican Party
platform does not include language calling for
a federal abortion ban, widely interpreted as
an attempt to appear more moderate on the
issue. Both VP nominee J.D. Vance and Trump
himself have supported abortion restrictions
but have appeared keen to downplay such
commitments during the campaign.
It’s still too early to call the results of
this election. But thanks to Dobbs and
its aftermath, abortion is playing a more
signicant role in US presidential politics than
it has for some time.
Emma Long is Associate Professor in
American History and Politics at the
University of East Anglia.
Political Insight September 2024 BU.indd 48Political Insight September 2024 BU.indd 4821/08/2024 16:2421/08/2024 16:24
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