A micro-level analysis of the contagion effect: Evidence from the Kurdish conflict

AuthorZeki Sarigil
Published date01 July 2021
Date01 July 2021
DOIhttp://doi.org/10.1177/0022343320957386
A micro-level analysis of the contagion
effect: Evidence from the Kurdish conflict
Zeki Sarigil
Department of Political Science, Bilkent University
Abstract
The unit of analysis in almost all large-N studies on conflict contagion and diffusion is collective actors, such as states
and ethnic groups or movements. Thus, contagion dynamics and processes at the individual level have been
neglected. Using original data derived from a public opinion survey, this study examines the micro-level dynamics
of contagion in the context of Turkey’s Kurdish conflict. The study suggests that transnational ethnic ties, and in
particular, cross-border familial bonds and interactions, facilitate conflict contagion through several strategic and
ideational mechanisms. First, transborder familial ties and interactions amplify the demonstration effect of ethnic-kin
achievements in contiguous conflict countries. Second, cross-border familial bonds facilitate collaboration between
cross-border co-ethnics. Finally, such ties to conflict zones with ethnic kin groups empower pan-ethnic identities.
The empirical findings show that Kurds living in Turkey who have close relatives in nearby countries hosting
conflicting ethnic-kin groups (i.e. Syria, Iraq, and Iran) have stronger ethnonationalist orientations and claims
against the center. However, having close relatives elsewhere (e.g. Europe) does not generate the same impact. The
Kurdish case evidences that contagion processes and dynamics might vary substantially across the members of a
particular ethnic group. Hence, it is necessary to broaden the conventional focus on collective actors in conflict
contagion research and pay greater attention to micro-level variables and factors.
Keywords
conflict contagion, ethnic conflict, Kurdish conflict, transnational familial ties
Many studies in the civil conflict literature suggest that
focusing on domestic factors and processes would be
limited or misleading in terms of understanding the
dynamics of civil conflicts and the prospects for their
resolution. Instead, these studies draw attention to the
border-crossing and transnational aspects and dynamics
of civil conflict and suggest that many civil conflicts
‘display a transnational character, where actors,
resources, and events span national boundari es’ (Gle-
ditsch, 2007: 293; see also Lake & Rothchild, 1998;
Salehyan, 2007, 2009; Buhaug & Gleditsch, 2008; Fors-
berg, 2008; Cederman, Girardin & Gleditsch, 2009;
Checkel, 2013; Cederman et al., 2013; Gurses, 2015;
Weidmann, 2015).
Many of the studies that focus on the transnational
aspects of civil conflict highlight the role of the contagion
effect. In a widely cited definition, contagion refers to ‘a
process whereby internal conflict in one location alters
the probability of another internal conflict erupting in
another location at a later point in time’ (Forsberg,
2014b: 144; see also Lake & Rothchild, 1998: 3; Ayres
& Saideman, 2000: 92; Forsberg, 2014a). Thus, stres-
sing the contagious nature of civil conflicts and wars,
several studies suggest that transnational factors and lin-
kages and interactions across state bound aries such as
geographical proximity to the conflict country, as well
as the presence of external bases and sanctuaries and
ethnic kin groups or movements in a nearby conflict
country, shape the onset, duration, nature, and outcome
of civil conflicts (e.g. see Starr & Most, 1983; Davis &
Moore, 1997; Lake & Rothchild, 1998; Ayres & Saide-
man, 2000; Saideman& Ayres, 2000; Hegre & Sambanis,
Corresponding author:
sarigil@bilkent.edu.tr
Journal of Peace Research
2021, Vol. 58(4) 763–777
ªThe Author(s) 2020
Article reuse guidelines:
sagepub.com/journals-permissions
DOI: 10.1177/0022343320957386
journals.sagepub.com/home/jpr

To continue reading

Request your trial

VLEX uses login cookies to provide you with a better browsing experience. If you click on 'Accept' or continue browsing this site we consider that you accept our cookie policy. ACCEPT