Militarized state-building interventions and the survival of fragile states
| Published date | 01 January 2025 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231196610 |
| Author | Kelly Matush,David A Lake |
| Date | 01 January 2025 |
https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231196610
Journal of Peace Research
2025, Vol. 62(1) 134 –148
© The Author(s) 2023
Article reuse guidelines:
sagepub.com/journals-permissions
DOI: 10.1177/00223433231196610
journals.sagepub.com/home/jpr
1225162JPR0010.1177/00223433231196610Journal of Peace ResearchMatush & Lake
research-article2023
Regular Article
Militarized state-building interventions
and the survival of fragile states
Kelly Matush
Department of Political Science, Florida State University
David A Lake
Department of Political Science, University of California San Diego
Abstract
Militarized state-building interventions (MSIs) must fulfill two often conflicting goals. At the time of withdrawal the
intervenor must leave in place a state able to survive on its own and govern its territory. States only intervene in other
states, however, when they aspire to change the policy of the target in ways they prefer. In attempting to balance these
objectives, the intervenor ‘pulls’ policy in its preferred direction by supporting a less popular leader at the cost of
leaving behind a state that is no morelikely to survive over time than its peers. We test our theory and find evidence for
this trade-off by examining all MSIs by great powers and IOs in failed states from 1956 to 2006. Consistent with the
theory, we find that MSIs do not on average have any significant effect on state survival. We also find that MSIs that
move the target state’s policy closer to that of the external power have a negative effect on survival, but interventions
that do not result in a change in policy do not. This argument and finding temper the optimism of much of the
contemporary literature on international interventions. Potential intervenors face a stark trade-off. If they draw the
policy of the failed state towards their own preferences, then that state will be more likely to fail again in the future.
Keywords
fragile states, state-building, state failure
To succeed in the modern world, militarized state-
building interventions (MSIs) must fulfill two often
conflicting goals. Constrained by the norm that any inter-
national intervention must be limited and temporary, at
the time of withdrawal the intervenor must leave in place a
state able to survive on its own and govern its territory.
Thus, one goal of intervention must be to create a resilient
state that can endure over time. Conversely, in any signif-
icant intervention, the intervenor always has some interest
of its own that it wants to secure, such as a government
favorable to its own interests, one willing to settle territor-
ial or identity disputes, or an ally in the war on terror.
Since it cannot govern the target directly, the intervenor
must install a proxy regime to carry out its will. Moreover,
as the intervenor’s goal can be assumed to be unpopular,
otherwise the intervention itself would have been less
likely, the proxy regime will likely face domestic opposi-
tion from at least one politically significant group in
society. This second goal of intervention, to change the
policyof the target state in ways preferredby the intervenor,
can undermine the first of a state that can survive on its
own. In attemptingto balance these conflicting objectives,
the intervenor ‘pulls’ policy in its preferred direction by
supporting a less popular proxy but at the cost of leaving
behind a state that is no more likely to survive over time
than its peers. In short, stability is sacrificed for more
favorablepolicies. As a result, we expectthat first, interven-
tions will not, on average, result in more stable states, and
second, that in previously failed states where policy has
been drawn towards the intervenor’s preferences,the state
will be shorter-lived. Our empirical results show this pat-
tern across a range of MSIs from 1956 to 2006.
Corresponding author:
kmatush@fsu.edu
Get this document and AI-powered insights with a free trial of vLex and Vincent AI
Get Started for FreeStart Your Free Trial of vLex and Vincent AI, Your Precision-Engineered Legal Assistant
-
Access comprehensive legal content with no limitations across vLex's unparalleled global legal database
-
Build stronger arguments with verified citations and CERT citator that tracks case history and precedential strength
-
Transform your legal research from hours to minutes with Vincent AI's intelligent search and analysis capabilities
-
Elevate your practice by focusing your expertise where it matters most while Vincent handles the heavy lifting
Start Your Free Trial of vLex and Vincent AI, Your Precision-Engineered Legal Assistant
-
Access comprehensive legal content with no limitations across vLex's unparalleled global legal database
-
Build stronger arguments with verified citations and CERT citator that tracks case history and precedential strength
-
Transform your legal research from hours to minutes with Vincent AI's intelligent search and analysis capabilities
-
Elevate your practice by focusing your expertise where it matters most while Vincent handles the heavy lifting
Start Your Free Trial of vLex and Vincent AI, Your Precision-Engineered Legal Assistant
-
Access comprehensive legal content with no limitations across vLex's unparalleled global legal database
-
Build stronger arguments with verified citations and CERT citator that tracks case history and precedential strength
-
Transform your legal research from hours to minutes with Vincent AI's intelligent search and analysis capabilities
-
Elevate your practice by focusing your expertise where it matters most while Vincent handles the heavy lifting
Start Your Free Trial of vLex and Vincent AI, Your Precision-Engineered Legal Assistant
-
Access comprehensive legal content with no limitations across vLex's unparalleled global legal database
-
Build stronger arguments with verified citations and CERT citator that tracks case history and precedential strength
-
Transform your legal research from hours to minutes with Vincent AI's intelligent search and analysis capabilities
-
Elevate your practice by focusing your expertise where it matters most while Vincent handles the heavy lifting
Start Your Free Trial of vLex and Vincent AI, Your Precision-Engineered Legal Assistant
-
Access comprehensive legal content with no limitations across vLex's unparalleled global legal database
-
Build stronger arguments with verified citations and CERT citator that tracks case history and precedential strength
-
Transform your legal research from hours to minutes with Vincent AI's intelligent search and analysis capabilities
-
Elevate your practice by focusing your expertise where it matters most while Vincent handles the heavy lifting