A MULTIREGRESSION MODEL FOR PREDICTING ENROLMENTS IN THE FIRST SEVEN GRADES OF THE QUEENSLAND STATE SCHOOL SYSTEM

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1108/eb009688
Published date01 January 1973
Pages69-78
Date01 January 1973
AuthorBRIAN W. CARSS
Subject MatterEducation
THE JOURNAL OF EDUCATIONAL ADMINISTRATION
VOLUME XI, NUMBER 1 MAY, 1973
A MULTIREGRESSION MODEL FOR PREDICTING
ENROLMENTS IN THE FIRST SEVEN GRADES OF THE
QUEENSLAND STATE SCHOOL SYSTEM
BRIAN
W.
CARSS
The application of mathematical model-building in educational research and planning
is a very recent development. Planners have found that their ad hoc trend analysis
procedures are not good enough to accommodate a very rapidly changing system.
The multiregression model proposed in this paper has been derived from the class of
straightforward least-squares applications of the general linear model, without any
built-in statistical tests. The procedure used is a data search procedure in which the
intent is to evaluate a number of variables substantively, rather than in terms of
formal statistical procedures. The resulting multiregression model appears to be an
excellent predictor of enrolment patterns in that it accounts for 99.49 per cent of the
variance of the criterion variable. Its application in this example can be likened to a
"moving least squares" model
INTRODUCTION
The growing concern in education with Planning-Programming- Budgeting
Systems (PPBS) and Management Information Systems (MIS) is undoubtedly
responsible for the renewed interest in enrolment forecasting techniques. In
view of the thousands of enrolment forecasts that must have been made
during the last fifty years, it is surprising that so few empirical assessments of
the methods have been reported in the literature. In fact, little is known
about whether or not techniques work, and if they do, why they do. This
may be due, in part, to the mistaken belief that the only way to study the
forecasting problem is to make a number of predictions and then wait for a
number of years to check their accuracy. Few workers have that kind of
interest or time to invest.
Procedures for projecting school enrolments are not new. They emerged
with the school survey movement of the early 1900s, and the main
dimensions of the methods in use today had been established by the mid
1920s. The various treatments of projection techniques (Correa 1970,
O.E.C.D. 1965, Thonstad 1969) lack an analytical orientation and largely
confine themselves to procedural details, thereby failing to clarify the
underlying rationale.
It is useful to discuss enrolment projection in terms of the general logic of
DR. BRIAN W. CARSS is Reader in Education at the University of Queensland. He
holds the degrees of B.Sc. (Durham) and M.S. and Ph.D. (Illinois). Dr. Carss is a member
of the Australian Computer Society. He is particularly interested in the educational
application of computing technology.

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