National agenda, politics, and macroeconomic performance. An empirical study of growth, inflation, and employment in China
| Pages | 97-109 |
| Date | 22 June 2010 |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1108/17544401011052258 |
| Published date | 22 June 2010 |
| Author | Yi Feng |
| Subject Matter | Economics |
Growth, inflation,
and employment
in China
97
Journal of Chinese Economic and
Foreign Trade Studies
Vol. 3 No. 2, 2010
pp. 97-109
#Emerald Group Publishing Limited
1754-4408
DOI 10.1108/17544401011052258
National agenda, politics, and
macroeconomic performance
An empirical study of growth, inflation, and
employment in China
Yi Feng
School of Politics and Economics, Claremont Graduate University,
Claremont, California, USA
Abstract
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between China’s macroeconomic
performance and cyclic political events.
Design/methodology/approach – The research is hypothesis-derived and empirically driven.
Findings – In China, economic growth has been largely consistent under different leaderships, and
inflation and unemployment tend to be low during the year in which the Communist Party of China
convenes its Congress.
Research limitations/implications – Further multivariate, time-series analysis is expected.
Practical implications – Periodic adjustments in monetary and fiscal policies will benefit
sustainable economic growth and social stability.
Originality/value – This is the first empirical work to explore a systematic relationship between
cyclic political changes or events and macroeconomic performance in China.
Keywords China, Macroeconomics, Inflation, Unemployment, Political economy
Paper type Research paper
1. Introduction
The essay studies the relationship between China’s economic growth, inflation, and
employment on the one hand and the country’s cyclic political events on the other. The
literature on political business cycles conveniently provides a template for
the formation of some testable hypotheses, though the political systems studied in the
literature are vastly different from the Chinese political system and the theoretical
implications derived from these political business cycle models do not apply to China.
The conceptual framework under the political busin ess theory remains useful as a
way of thinking about and exploring connections between major cyclic political events
and macroeconomic performance. Because politics and economics are cognately
intertwined in any society, it is not far fetched to think of the existence of a relationship
between political cycles and economic cycles, with outcomes and implica tions unique
to China, due to its own political and economic characteristics. The paper established a
The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available at
www.emeraldinsight.com/1754-4408.htm
An earlier version of this work was presented at the 20th annual conference of the Association
for Chinese Economic Studies Australia (ACESA): The 30 Years of Economic Reforms in China:
Retrospect and Outlook, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia, 10-11 July 2008 and was
published in the Conference Proceedings. The author wishes to thank Baizhu Chen for a
previous discussion of the concept in this paper, Hsin-Wei Tang for data collection, Ivy Melgar
for editorial assistance, and participants at the 2008 ACESA meeting and the 2009 Chinese
Economists Society (CES) annual conference at Nanning, China for helpful comments. The
author is particularly grateful to two anonymous reviewers for their careful and constructive
comments and suggestions. This paper was presented at the Chinese Economists Society (CES)
annual conference at Nanning, China, 12-15 June 2009.
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