Navigating geopolitical and trade megatrends: Public export finance in a world of change
| Published date | 01 November 2024 |
| Author | Andreas Klasen,Simone Krummaker,Julia Beck,James Pennington |
| Date | 01 November 2024 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13417 |
Global Policy. 2024;15:1007–1014 .
|
1007
wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/gpol
In a dynamic global landscape, the rol e of public finan-
cial institutions has never been more pivotal for resilient
economies. In recent years, the world has witnes sed
substantial shifts in global power dyna mics, marked
by the rise of emerging economies, changi ng alliances
and increasing geopolitical tensions. These develop-
ments, combined with transformative megatrends su ch
as ‘slowbalisation’, shifting supply chains, digitalisation,
as well as the growing emphasis on climate action and
equitability, are redefining the traditional paradigms
of international trade and export finance. The emer-
gence of profound geopolitical and tr ade megatrends
is reshaping the business environment for exporters,
presenting both challenges and oppor tunities. Access
to finance is critical for internationally oriented busi-
nesses, enabling them to invest in production, expand
operations, manage cash flow and mitigate trade risks.
Government export credit agencies (ECAs), such as
UK Export Finance (UKEF), are tasked with managing
the risks associated with trade megatrend s, as well as
capitalising on the new opportunities they present. This
requires a deep understanding of the co mplex interplay
between geopolitical developments, economic mega-
trends, and the financing and de- risking needs of UK
exporters and overseas buyers.
This research analyses the geopolitic al and trade
megatrends that ECAs will face in the coming years. It
not only focuses on agencies from the Group of Seven
(G7) countries, but also considers innovation leaders in-
cluding Denmark or Finland and other key players such
as China. It sets out a narrative framework covering
scenarios that ECAs collectively, and UKEF uniquely,
will need to work through. It also presents new evidence
on the implications for mandates, product s and impact.
The recommendations are intended to help policymak-
ers and practitioners understan d and respond strategi-
cally to these global changes. The analytical framework
for geopolitical and trade megatrend s is based on the
‘Futures Triangle’ (Fergnani,2020; Inayatullah, 2008).
Based on semi- structured interviews and discussi ons
POLICY ANALYSIS
Navigating geopolitical and trade megatrends: Public
export nance in a world of change
AndreasKlasen1,2, 3 | SimoneKrummaker2,3 | JuliaBeck4 | JamesPennington4
Received: 16 April 20 24
|
Revised: 23 June 20 24
|
Accepted: 17 July 2024
DO I: 10 .1111/17 58- 589 9.13 417
This is an open ac cess article under t he terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which perm its use and distributi on in
any medium, provi ded the original work is p roperly cited, the use i s non-commercial a nd no modifications o r adaptations are made.
© 2024 The Author(s). Global Policy published by D urham University and Jo hn Wiley & Sons Ltd.
1Smith School of Ent erprise and the
Environment, Un iversity of Oxford,
Oxford, UK
2Institute for Trade and Inn ovation,
Offenburg University, Offenburg, Germany
3Bayes Business S chool, City, University
of London, London, UK
4UK Export Fin ance, London, UK
Correspondence
Andreas Klase n, University of Oxfor d,
Oxford, UK.
Email: andreas.klasen@ouce.ox.ac.uk
Abstract
Ensuring exporters can access financ e is critical for governments as they look
to encourage trade and drive economic grow th. However, firms face challenges
in securing export finance and trad e credit insurance as geopolitical and trade
megatrends lead to increased political, mar ket and credit risks. In a dynamic
global landscape, the role of expor t credit agencies (ECAs) has never been more
important. Based on the ‘Futures Triangle’ analytical framework and dr awing on
qualitative data from 35 semi- structured interviews and expert discus sions using
thematic analysis, this research assesses the implications of key megatrends
for ECAs. It presents new insights into the impact on strategies, products and
operations: The evolution of mandates towards a ‘growth promoter’ in a ‘who le-
of- government’ approach, the necessit y to introduce new products and the
need to balance multiple priorities su ch as export growth, support for small and
medium- sized enterprises (SMEs), inclusive trade, climate action and impact on
developing markets. The recommendations are intended to help policymakers
and public finance practitioner s understand and respond strategically to global
changes.
Get this document and AI-powered insights with a free trial of vLex and Vincent AI
Get Started for FreeStart Your Free Trial of vLex and Vincent AI, Your Precision-Engineered Legal Assistant
-
Access comprehensive legal content with no limitations across vLex's unparalleled global legal database
-
Build stronger arguments with verified citations and CERT citator that tracks case history and precedential strength
-
Transform your legal research from hours to minutes with Vincent AI's intelligent search and analysis capabilities
-
Elevate your practice by focusing your expertise where it matters most while Vincent handles the heavy lifting
Start Your Free Trial of vLex and Vincent AI, Your Precision-Engineered Legal Assistant
-
Access comprehensive legal content with no limitations across vLex's unparalleled global legal database
-
Build stronger arguments with verified citations and CERT citator that tracks case history and precedential strength
-
Transform your legal research from hours to minutes with Vincent AI's intelligent search and analysis capabilities
-
Elevate your practice by focusing your expertise where it matters most while Vincent handles the heavy lifting
Start Your Free Trial of vLex and Vincent AI, Your Precision-Engineered Legal Assistant
-
Access comprehensive legal content with no limitations across vLex's unparalleled global legal database
-
Build stronger arguments with verified citations and CERT citator that tracks case history and precedential strength
-
Transform your legal research from hours to minutes with Vincent AI's intelligent search and analysis capabilities
-
Elevate your practice by focusing your expertise where it matters most while Vincent handles the heavy lifting
Start Your Free Trial of vLex and Vincent AI, Your Precision-Engineered Legal Assistant
-
Access comprehensive legal content with no limitations across vLex's unparalleled global legal database
-
Build stronger arguments with verified citations and CERT citator that tracks case history and precedential strength
-
Transform your legal research from hours to minutes with Vincent AI's intelligent search and analysis capabilities
-
Elevate your practice by focusing your expertise where it matters most while Vincent handles the heavy lifting
Start Your Free Trial of vLex and Vincent AI, Your Precision-Engineered Legal Assistant
-
Access comprehensive legal content with no limitations across vLex's unparalleled global legal database
-
Build stronger arguments with verified citations and CERT citator that tracks case history and precedential strength
-
Transform your legal research from hours to minutes with Vincent AI's intelligent search and analysis capabilities
-
Elevate your practice by focusing your expertise where it matters most while Vincent handles the heavy lifting