A near‐real‐time analysis of societal responses to Ukrainian refugee migration in Europe
| Published date | 01 August 2023 |
| Author | Reinhard A. Weisser |
| Date | 01 August 2023 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/imig.13071 |
Department of Economics - Nottingham
Business School, Nottingham Trent University,
Nottingham, UK
Correspondence
Reinhard A. Weisser, Department of
Economics - Nottingham Business School,
Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham,
NG1 4BU, UK.
Email: reinhard.weisser@ntu.ac.uk
Abstract
Recent events in Ukraine led to a surge in refugee migra-
tion originating from within Europe not seen since WWII.
Using global data on daily news coverage, this research
highlights that during the 8 weeks before the outbreak of
open hostilities, there was no change in the relative inter-
action frequency between societal stakeholders and refu-
gees. This changed dramatically in the 8 weeks thereafter: In
neighbouring countries, the share of news reporting inter-
actions with refugees rose from next to nothing to between
5 and 13%. In the rest of Europe, this share increased to
1% or 2%. Beyond governments, an event-study reveals
inter-governmental organisations, civil societies and busi-
nesses as major societal forces driving not just the public
discourse but levels of support for refugees. Initially, busi-
ness actors displayed the strongest responsiveness to indi-
viduals in need: They became 25% points more likely to
engage in material cooperation with refugees. Gradually
fading support from non-government actors suggests that
prolonged humanitarian crises may require a continuous
near-real-time monitoring system and the coordination of
various stakeholders' contributions to ensure an efficient
provision of aid.
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
A near-real-time analysis of societal responses to
Ukrainian refugee migration in Europe
Reinhard A. Weisser
DOI: 10.1111/imig.13071
Received: 30 March 2022 Revised: 11 July 2022 Accepted: 1 September 2022
17
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial License, which permits use,
distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.
© 2022 The Author. International Migration published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Organization for Migration.
Int Migr. 2023;61:17–36. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/imig
INTRODUCTION
The outbreak of open hostilities between Russian and Ukrainian military forces on 24 February 2022 has created a
situation not seen in Europe since the end of the Second World War: In the first 7 days of the military conflict, almost
2 million Ukrainians fled their home country. Eight weeks after the first shot was fired, the overall number of Ukrain-
ians seeking protection abroad stood at 5.1 million (UNHCR, 2022a). The number of externally displaced Ukrainians
was thus more than thrice as large as the yearly number of asylum seekers coming to Europe during the so-called
refugee crisis in 2015 and 2016 (UNHCR, 2022b).
Most Ukrainians who fled found temporary shelter in neighbouring countries, especially in Poland. Initially, this
exodus from Ukraine has been met with high levels of support abroad. Immigration rules have been adjusted to
facilitate the migration of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians seeking refuge. Beyond government responses, other
societal actors in Europe and across the globe have signalled their support. This support was not merely verbal but
manifested in real actions, such as private sector donations to the UNHCR's Ukraine emergency response totalling
$200 million after 3 weeks (UNHCR, 2022c). The picture concerning persistent levels of support proved to be more
ambiguous. Contributions to the UN's Flash Appeal to support Ukraine, published in early March, fell still short of
their target several months later (OCHA, 2022). Essential funding clusters related to food security, shelter, protection,
or sanitation displayed a funding gap of $914 million in late June.
Whilst governments in Europe have stepped up their efforts to accommodate Ukrainians abroad, the level of
preparedness was limited. Despite increasing tensions between Russia and Ukraine over 2021, societal stakeholders
across Europe considered a military escalation, that is a full-scale war in Europe involving a major military power, to be
extremely unrealistic. When the war finally broke out, this came as a surprise to actors from the realms of politics and
civil society alike. As this research will show, hardly anyone across Europe expected the resulting exodus of Ukrainian
citizens. Such unpreparedness may have notable repercussions, especially if the conflict turns into a longer-lasting
military altercation and the displacement of Ukrainians continues.
This, however, is not simply an issue for policymakers in major host countries but a challenge to all European
states. To ensure the implementation of solutions, which satisfy both humanitarian requirements and constraints in
host societies, understanding how societies react to the emergence of such a crisis is crucial. Will non-government
societal stakeholders, such as business or civil society representatives, maintain their levels of support for a prolonged
period or can we expect levels of cooperation to fade quickly? Policymakers facing such a challenging situation may
find academic discussions years after the fact only partly helpful to navigate the current crisis.
A major contribution of this research is the implementation of an analytical framework that allows tracing societal
responses across European countries almost in real-time. Building on the Global Database of Events, Language and
Tone (GDELT v2.0, https://www.gdeltproject.org/), this study examines how the frequency of interactions between
various societal groups and refugees changed in 2022. Eventually, it provides a simple but rigorous approach to
investigating dynamic response patterns of the main societal and political forces in an event-study context. It sheds
light on cooperative and confrontational interaction modes of governments, legislatures, businesses, or civil society
actors with Ukrainians being displaced by the conflict. More specifically, it provides insights into which actors in host
countries change their interaction mode: Who becomes more likely to provide aid or express the intent to cooperate
in the short run? Who disapproves or threatens? These dynamics can be monitored on a day-to-day basis. Such timely
findings may be highly relevant for the design and coordination of public and private support policies in countries
hosting Ukrainian refugees for the foreseeable future.
The remainder of this study is organised as follows: A brief overview of the literature on societal responses to
refugee migration is provided in the next section. This is followed by a discussion of the main data source, its limita-
tions and the empirical methodology applied to evaluate societal responses. Descriptive and event-study results are
presented for aggregate response patterns and response patterns by main societal stakeholders or interaction modes.
The last section concludes.
WEISSER
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