A New Dispensation? What changes of government in London and Dublin could mean for Northern Ireland
| Published date | 01 March 2024 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/20419058241238191 |
| Author | Katy Hayward |
| Date | 01 March 2024 |
MARCH 2024•POLITICAL INSIGHT29
Twenty years from now a United
Ireland is more likely to exist
than the United Kingdom. This is
not just Sinn Féin First Minister
Michelle O’Neill’s view – it’s that of most
people in Northern Ireland, in whose
hands the continuation of the UK rests. If
a Secretary of State for Northern Ireland
assesses the majority there to be in favour
of Irish unification, they are obliged to call a
referendum to test it and, if successful, pass
legislation to enact it. What is less clear are
the grounds on which they will make that
judgement.
A New Dispensation?
What changes of government
in London and Dublin could
mean for Northern Ireland
With both the UK and Ireland heading to the polls within the next
year, Katy Hayward argues that the prospect of Labour and Sinn
Féin-led administrations in London and Dublin could herald a
reset in British-Irish relations – and unprecedented challenges for
Northern Ireland.
The previous Shadow Secretary of
State, Peter Kyle, indicated that a Labour
government would set out the basis on
which a ‘border poll’ would be called.
Kyle’s successor, Hilary Benn, has so far
been more coy, perhaps conscious that
no one criteria would be a sure sign of
a pro-unity majority. One such indicator
could be if a nationalist party tops the
polls in successive elections. Sinn Féin has
already emerged as the largest in the 2022
Assembly elections (on 29 per cent) and
in the 2023 local elections (31.9 per cent).
The forthcoming Westminster election
Political Insight March 2024.indd 29Political Insight March 2024.indd 2919/02/2024 09:3119/02/2024 09:31
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