New World Order
| Published date | 01 December 2024 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/20419058241305469 |
| Author | Peter Geoghegan |
| Date | 01 December 2024 |
DECEMBER 2024•POLITICAL INSIGHT3
New World
Order
In the end it wasn’t even close. After
months of polls that had Donald
Trump and Kamala Harris neck-and-
neck – albeit well within the margin
of error – the Republican candidate won
a sweeping victory in November’s US
election.
Trump did not just become the first
US President to win a second non-
consecutive term since Grover Cleveland
in the 19th century, he completely
upended decades of received wisdom
about American politics.
Demography is not destiny. Running
on a platform of mass deportation, Trump
won more than a third of the Latino vote
– which for decades has overwhelmingly
broken for Democrats. Harris was hoping
to become the US’s first female Black
President, yet Trump almost doubled his
support among Black voters from 2020.
In the first presidential election since
the Supreme Court overturned Roe v
Wade, the Democrats successfully put the
issue of abortion on the ballot – but the
result was major legislative victories for
pro-choice initiatives in key battleground
states that nonetheless also swung en
masse to Trump.
The Republicans also took control of
the House of Representatives and the
Senate. Propelled by Elon Musk’s billions
and a media ecosystem seemingly
fractured beyond repair, President-Elect
Trump will have far more political power
and control than when he last graced the
White House.
But what of the American electorate?
What does 2024 say about the state of
politics in the richest nation in human
history? As Benjamin D. Hennig shows in a
series of incredibly revealing maps in the
In Focus feature in the middle pages of
this issue, it’s not pretty.
Polarisation in the US has become
profoundly entrenched. Only a handful
of swing states matter in presidential
contests, relegating tens of millions of
votes to effective irrelevance. As Benjamin
points out ‘such a structure raises
fundamental questions for the future of
American democracy’.
And what of Kamala Harris? Why did the
sitting Vice-President lose so badly? Katie
Gaddini and Lucia Figueras-Pont tackle
that question in this issue’s Last Word and
find that, in the final analysis, a Democratic
campaign that stressed freedom and
choice failed against Trump’s economic
message.
Exit polls showed that voters believed
it was the former New York businessman
who was best placed to improve their
lot. That accounts, in part, for why more
women voted for Trump in this election
than the last two. The longstanding
critique that Trump has a ‘woman problem’
proved false, especially when it came to
white women without a university degree.
The electoral coalition that brought
victory to the Republicans in the US might
also give Labour strategists in the UK
pause for thought. Labour has long been
seen as the ‘natural’ political home for
non-white voters in Britain. But, as Sophie
Stowers reports, the political choices
of ethnic minority voters are becoming
increasingly diverse.
Trump’s victory has already been seen
as part of a broader nativist turn in politics.
June’s European Parliament elections saw
major gains for the radical right. Gilsun
Jeong examines how the Parliament has
functioned in the months since and finds
that an ascendant radical right still faces
structural problems.
Trust is emerging as a major issue in
many mature democracies. Ben Seyd
examines why so many have lost faith in
British politics and asks what can be done
to increase political trust.
One crucial issue is leadership. But
what do political party members look for
in a leader? And does this differ from the
general public? As Kemi Badenoch takes
over as Conservative leader, Tim Bale,
Paul Webb and Stravroula Chrona report
on new research into leadership, and its
darker side.
Elsewhere, Susan Milner examines
Labour’s new Employment Bill. Keir
Starmer delivered on his pledge to reset
employment relations in the UK – but
what does the Bill contain? And has he
succeeded?
Jake Northey reports from Japan where
a recent general election saw the ruling
coalition’s majority split for the first time
since 2009. The result has locked the
Japanese party system in a stalemate
while its economy continues to struggle.
Finally, Evelyn Field, winner of this year’s
PSA Student Blog competition, examines
the question of what politicians can
deliver for the next generation of voters,
and finds that young people care about
politics but lack representatives to reflect
their views.
2025 is already shaping up to be a
seismic, turbulent year around the world.
Whatever happens,
Political Insight
will
be there, bringing you expert research,
analysis and commentary on the issues
that matter.
Peter Geoghegan
Editor
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