Next generation assessment technology
| Published date | 01 September 2017 |
| Date | 01 September 2017 |
| DOI | 10.1177/0264550517720851 |
| Subject Matter | Articles |
Article
Next generation
assessment technology:
The potential and
pitfalls of integrating
individual and
community risk
assessment
James Byrne and April Pattavina
University of Massachusetts Lowell, USA
Abstract
The recent inclusion of community-level risk variable s in (some) fourth generation risk
assessment instruments, ostensibly to make more accurate individual-level predic-
tions of the likelihood of reoffending among the populations of probationers and
parolees under community supervision, is examined in the following review. This
development raises a thorny issue: what if the price of improved predictive accuracy
is increased gender, race, or class-based disparity? Our review underscores the
problems (conceptualization and measurement related) inherent in combining indi-
vidual risk variables with community-level risk variables in order to assess an offen-
der’s risk for re-offending during a specified follow-up period. In recognition of the
likely disparity that will result from the conflation of neighborhood risk into individual
risk assessments, we suggest an alternative: conduct a separate neighborhood risk
assessment that can be used to simultaneously develop (1) a community-based
treatment plan for individual offenders and (2) a resource development plan identi-
fying and addressing service shortfalls and other risk factors in the neighborhoods
where offenders reside.
Corresponding Author:
James Byrne, Professor, School of Criminology and Justice Studies, University of Massachusetts, Lowell,
113 Wilder Street, HSSB, 4th Floor, Lowell, MA 01854, USA.
Email: james_byrne@uml.edu
The Journal of Community and Criminal Justice
Probation Journal
2017, Vol. 64(3) 242–255
ªThe Author(s) 2017
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DOI: 10.1177/0264550517720851
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