Northern Irish Lessons for Ending the Ukraine War
| Published date | 01 December 2023 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/20419058231218319 |
| Author | Paul Dixon |
| Date | 01 December 2023 |
14POLITICAL INSIGHT•DECEMBER 2023
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began
in February 2022 and still shows
few signs of ending. The failure
of the Ukraine oensive in the
second half of this year to secure major
gains reinforces the impression that the
choice is between catastrophic escalation,
a long-deadlocked war, or a negotiated
accommodation.
The dominant view in the West is that it
is immoral to reward Russian aggression by
negotiating with President Putin. Pragmatists
argue that a bad deal now for Ukraine could
be better than a worse deal later. So, if
Ukraine was to negotiate a settlement, what
lessons might the Northern Ireland peace
process have for the negotiation of an end to
the Ukraine War?
Northern Irish parallels
There have been attempts to negotiate an
end to the Ukraine war already. On 29 March
2022 in Istanbul, just over a month after the
invasion, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators
‘came very close to concluding a peace
deal’, according to Professor Marc Weller of
Cambridge University. This deal included:
Ukraine’s neutrality, a ceasere and Russian
withdrawal, recognition of the Russian
language, with sticking points on the future
Northern Irish
Lessons for Ending
the Ukraine War
Paul Dixon looks back at the Northern Irish peace process in the
1990s to ask what a negotiated peace settlement in Ukraine might
look like, and how it could be achieved.
of Crimea and the Donbas.
At the time, Ukrainian President Zelensky
expressed optimism that a deal could be
achieved.
However, Britain’s Conservative Prime
Minister Boris Johnson and US President
Joe Biden opposed the negotiations that
could have ended the war. The negotiations
collapsed after Ukraine advances in the war,
revelations of Russian war crimes and Western
opposition.
There are some parallels here with
Northern Ireland. In 1996 Boris Johnson,
then a
Daily Telegraph
journalist, rejected
the Northern Ireland peace process and
argued for a tough security approach to
defeat the Irish Republican Army (IRA).
Johnson underestimated the possibilities of
politics and negotiations. Just two years later
on 10 April 1998, the Belfast/Good Friday
© Dan Chung / Alamy Stock Photo
Political Insight December 2023 BU.indd 14Political Insight December 2023 BU.indd 1410/11/2023 11:4010/11/2023 11:40
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