On competitive balance in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League*
| Published date | 01 July 2023 |
| Author | Francisco Triguero‐Ruiz,Antonio Avila‐Cano |
| Date | 01 July 2023 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/sjpe.12338 |
Scott J Polit Econ . 2023;70:231–248.
|
231
wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/sjpe
Received: 6 July 2 021
|
Accepted: 25 Augus t 2022
DOI: 10 .1111/sjpe.1 2338
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
On competitive balance in the group stage of the
UEFA Champions League*
Francisco Triguero- Ruiz1 | Antonio Avila- Cano2
This is an open ac cess article und er the terms of the Crea tive Commons Attr ibution License, w hich permits use , distribution an d
reproduct ion in any medium, pro vided the origina l work is properly cit ed.
© 2022 The Auth ors. Scottish Journal of Political Economy published by J ohn Wiley & Sons Ltd on be half of Scottish Econ omic
Soci ety.
*We are very grat eful to two anony mous reviewer s for extremel y useful commen ts and sugges tions.
1Departme nt of Languages and C omputer
Science, Uni versity of Malaga , Malaga,
Spain
2Departm ent of Economic Theor y and
Economic Hist ory, University of Ma laga,
Malaga, Spain
Correspondence
Francisco Triguero- Ruiz, Department
of Languages a nd Computer Scien ce,
Universit y of Málaga, Malaga , Spain.
Email: triguero@uma.es
Funding information
Ministerio d e Ciencia e Innovació n,
Spain, Gra nt/Award Number: PID20 20-
114309GB- I00; Funding for open a ccess
charge: Unive rsidad de Málaga/CBUA
Abstract
This article examines competitive balance in the group stage
of the UEFA Champions League over the last two decades
(1999/2000– 2017/2018). Competitive balance is considered
both before and after a competition. Have the groups been
designed in such a way as to ensure similar levels of com-
petitive b alance ex ante? Have the demonstr ated strengths
(ex pos t competitive balance) of the dif ferent groups been
similar over each season? What is the relations hip between
the competitive balance in the designed groups and that
achieved in t he same groups af ter the competition? Are the
performance achieved in terms of ex post competitive bal-
ance similar to ex ante competitive balance levels? We found
that, despite expect ations, the groups' ex ante competitive
balance was not homoge neous. Although ex ante competi-
tive balance serves as a good predictor, on average, of ex post
competitive balance, we observed significant differences at
the levels of group and seasons. Therefore, it i s possible to
improve the design mechanis m of the g roups that make up
the group stage of the champions so that they are composed
homogeneously in terms of ex ante compet itive balance.
KEYWORDS
competitive ba lance, distance to compet itive balance, soccer,
truncated c ascade distributio n, UEFA Champions League
232
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TRIGUERO-RUIZ and AVILA-CANO
1 | INTRODUCTION
The promotion of compet itive balance appears to be a priority on the age nda of the global governance of football.
Thus, the UEFA president has ide ntified one priority in the init ial period of his presidency: “impr oving competitive
balance in European football and reducing t he gap betwee n elite clubs an d the rest” (UEFA, 2019b). But what is
the compet itive balance? “At its heart, it is the situation where, in any head- to- head matchup, each team has an
equal likelihoo d of winning” (Van Scyoc & Mc Gee, 2016). Then, if a leag ue exhibited a competitive b alance, every
team would be a poten tial champion.
This arti cle examines comp etitive balance i n the group st age of the UEFA Cham pions League (UCL ) over the
last two de cades (1999/2000– 2017/2018). We are interes ted in the balance b etween the UCL gro ups and in the
relationship between t he competitive balance of the groups' pre- and p ost- competi tion. Have t he groups been
designed i n such a way a s to ensure simi lar levels of com petitive balance? W hat is the rela tionship between the
competitive balan ce in the designed groups and that achieved in the same groups after the compe tition? Thus, the
concept of comp etitive balance (An dreff, 2015; Szymanski, 2003; Zimbalist, 20 02) can be (i) linked to team char-
acteristic s before a comp etition, that i s, strengths and talent, ir respective of b ehaviour and pe rformance during
the competition, (ii) based on effort a nd on performance, and (iii) a result of the competition, which is usually the
case (Krings tad & Gerrard, 200 4).
In the first c ase, ex ante competitive ba lance is related to expec tations and the odds of wh o will win the com-
petition. To meas ure ex ante competiti ve balance, we can con sider those variabl es that reflect th e strengths and
talents of the teams. A suitably weighte d average of the teams' recent past results could serve as a good indication
of the ir actual strengths . Numerous previous studies h ave used betting o dds to calculate e x ante competitive
balance (Gomez- Gonzal ez et al., 2019).
The uncertaint y surrounding the results of a championship is one of the aspects in the literature on competitive
balance t hat commands the most a ttention. The uncertainty of outcome hypothesis (UO H) proposes a positive
relationship between fan interest and the competitive ness of games (Bradbury, 2 019). Therefore, if uncertaint y
contributes to consumer demand for sports, we can expect a greater competitive balance to increase team reve-
nue. However, it can be understoo d that there is little interest (Berri et al., 20 07), indifference (Hogan et al., 2 017)
or even a reverse relationship between uncertainty and demand (Coates et al., 2014). In f act, interest in sporting
events may be determined by ex ante expec tations with re spect to the quality of the game (Chung et al., 2016).
In their study, Schokka ert and Swi nnen (2016) f ocused on th e UOH and UCL; they fo und qualificat ion in lower
rounds has becom e more predictable in t he UCL and outcomes at later st ages have become less predi ctable.
Ex p ost, that is, aft er the competition the results allow each team's competitive balance to be evalu ated a
posteriori. From the point of view of the fans' uncert ainty about the betting shops, gambl ers, or generally all those
with a vested interest in the competi tion, these results are useful in terms of the next compe tition. This is because
they reveal the fi rst estimation of the com petitive balance before t he new competition star ts.
Thus, t he ex post competitive balance is linked to th e distribution of results or winner s of the competition,
and so is more related to the current distribution of sporting quality than to the expectations at the beginning of
the competition.
In this article, we propose examining both concepts from the point of view of football, and, more specifically,
in the group stage of the UCL (UEFA, 2018). In this sen se, the comp etitive balance of the UCL groups over the
last two decad es has been low and decreasing. The ele vated levels of concentration of the resul ts that the groups
JEL CLASSIFICATION
L11, Z20, Z21
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