Organized violence 1989–2020, with a special emphasis on Syria
Author | Nanar Hawach,Therése Pettersson,Shawn Davies,Amber Deniz,Margareta Sollenberg Magnus Öberg,Stina Högbladh,Garoun Engström |
DOI | 10.1177/00223433211026126 |
Published date | 01 July 2021 |
Date | 01 July 2021 |
Subject Matter | Special Data Features |
Special Data Features
Organized violence 1989–2020,
with a special emphasis on Syria
There
´se Pettersson
Shawn Davies
Amber Deniz
Garoun Engstro
¨m
Nanar Hawach
Stina Ho
¨gbladh
Margareta Sollenberg
Magnus O
¨berg
Department of Peace and Conflict
Research, Uppsala University
Abstract
This article reports on trends in organized violence, building on new data by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program
(UCDP). The falling trend in fatalities stemming from organized violence in the world, observed for five consecutive
years, broke upwards in 2020 and deaths in organized violence seem to have settled on a high plateau. UCDP
registered more than 80,100 deaths in organized violence in 2020, compared to 76,300 in 2019. The decrease in
violence in Afghanistan and Syria was countered by escalating conflicts in, for example, Artsakh (Nagorno-Kara-
bakh), Azerbaijan and Tigray, Ethiopia. Moreover, the call for a global ceasefire following the outbreak of the
COVID-19 pandemic failed to produce any results. In fact, the number of active state-based and non-state conflicts,
as well as the number of actors carrying out one-sided violence against civilians, increased when compared to 2019.
UCDP noted a record-high number of 56 state-based conflicts in 2020, including eight wars. Most of the conflicts
occurred in Africa, as the region registered 30 state-based conflicts, including nine new or restarted ones.
Keywords
armed conflict, conflict data, non-state conflict, one-sided violence, Syria, war
Organized violence 1989–2020, with a special
emphasis on Syria
1
The hopes that the COVID-19 pandemic would lead to
reduced violence had long been crushed as 2020 came to
an end. UCDP data, illustrated in Figure 1, shows that the
falling trend in fatalities stemming from organized violence
in the world, witnessed every year since the latest peak in
2014, broke upwards in 2020. UCDP registered more
than 80,100 deaths in organized violence in 2020, com-
pared to 76,300 in 2019. While this is a 45% drop
compared to the more than 144,700 fatalities recorded in
2014, the decline tapered off in 2018–19 and deaths seem
to have settled on a high plateau. Moreover, the number of
active state-based and non-state conflicts, as well as the
number of actors carrying out one-sided violence against
civilians, increased when compared to 2019.
The two largest wars of the past decade, Afghanistan
and Syria, both de-escalated in 2020. At the same time,
violence in other areas escalated as old tensions, having
simmered for years or even decades, flared up in conflicts
such as the one over government power in Ethiopia,
pitting the Addis Ababa regime against TPLF (Tigray
People’s Liberation Front) and the separatist conflict
over Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) in Azerbaijan.
Corresponding author:
therese.pettersson@pcr.uu.se
1
UCDP collects data on state-based armed conflict, non-state
conflict, and one-sided violence. The categories are mutually
exclusive and can be aggregated as ‘organized violence’. They also
share the same intensity cut-off for inclusion – 25 fatalities in a
calendar year. Appendices 1, 2, and 3 list the active conflicts in
2020. See Online appendix for definitions.
Journal of Peace Research
2021, Vol. 58(4) 809–825
ªThe Author(s) 2021
Article reuse guidelines:
sagepub.com/journals-permissions
DOI: 10.1177/00223433211026126
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In recent years, there has been a clear regional shift
from the Middle East to Africa now driving the trend in
organized violence. Completely dominant in one-sided
violence, and the location of more than half of all state-
based armed conflicts in the world, Africa witnessed its
bloodiest year since 2014.
The first section of this article presents recent trends
in three types of organized violence, focusing particularly
on events in 2020. The second section takes a closer look
at Syria, home to the bloodiest conflicts of the 21st
century. Using new disaggregated data from UCDP,
we explore how Syria has dominated the trends in orga-
nized violence in the past decade.
State-based armed conflict 1946–2020
UCDP documented a record-high number of state-based
armed conflicts in 2020, after observing a slowly rising
trend for several years. In 2020, 56 armed conflicts were
active around the world. This is an increase of one com-
pared to 2019,
2
and the highest number recorded in the
post-1946 period.
3
While most conflicts are minor and
result in relatively few battle-related deaths, the sheer
number of armed struggles is alarming, as they run the
risk of escalating into conflicts that are more lethal.
The year 2020 also saw several examples of escalating
violence in conflicts that had been inactive for years or
even decades. The border conflict between China and
India had not been active since 1967, but lethal
skirmishes erupted in the Galwan Valley in June
2020.
4
Fighting between the two nuclear powers sub-
sided but tension lingers (Dalton & Zhao, 2020). In
February 2021, after several rounds of high-level talks
between the two nations, they agreed to pull back their
troops from some of the border areas (BBC, 2021). In
Azerbaijan, the separatist conflict against the Republic of
Artsakh, with Armenia and Turkey involved as second-
ary warring parties, had been inactive since 2017 and,
before that, active on a very low level of intensity since
the large-scale war of the early 1990s. In mid-2020,
tension between the parties escalated, followed by heavy
fighting starting on 27 September.
5
After one and a half
months of clashes, resulting in over 7,500 deaths,
Figure 1. Fatalities in organized violence by type, 1989–2020
2
Last year UCDP reported 54 state-based conflicts (Pettersson &
O
¨berg, 2020). Based on new information, DR Congo: Islamic State
was added.
3
Since the end of World War II, 646 dyads have been active in 292
conflicts in 159 locations. Corresponding numbers for the 1989–
2020 period are 406 dyads in 186 conflicts in 98 locations. See
Online appendix for definitions.
4
References to event IDs in UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset
(GED) version 21.1 (Sundb erg & Melander, 2013) are pr ovided
throughout the article. In this case, the corresponding GED IDs
are 347042 and 353676.
5
GED ID: 358419.
810 journal of PEACE RESEARCH 58(4)
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