Organized violence 1989–2023, and the prevalence of organized crime groups
| Published date | 01 July 2024 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241262912 |
| Author | Shawn Davies,Garoun Engström,Therése Pettersson,Magnus Öberg |
| Date | 01 July 2024 |
https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433241262912
Journal of Peace Research
2024, Vol. 61(4) 673 –693
© The Author(s) 2024
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DOI: 10.1177/00223433241262912
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Organized violence 1989–20231
In 2023, the number of fatalities in organized violence
decreased for the first time since it began increasing rap-
idly in 2020. As depicted in Figure 1, fatalities in organ-
ized violence halved from 310,000 recorded in 2022 to
154,000 in 2023. Despite this decline, these figures
remain among the highest recorded since the Rwandan
genocide in 1994, with only the years 2022 and 2021
surpassing them. This reduction can largely be attributed
to the end of the Ethiopian intrastate conflict over
government, which had consistently ranked as the most
lethal conflict annually since 2020. As seen in Figure 1,
fatalities decreased in all three categories of violence,
though the downward trend was driven almost exclusively
by the decrease in state-based violence, which recorded
over 154,000 fewer fatalities in 2023 compared to 2022.
Notably, the two most severe state-based conflicts in
2022, namely the conflict over government in Ethiopia
Organized violence 1989–2023, and the
prevalence of organized crime groups
Shawn Davies
Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Sweden
Garoun Engström
Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Sweden
Therése Pettersson
Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Sweden
Magnus Öberg
Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Sweden
Abstract
This article examines trends in organized violence based on new data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program
(UCDP). In 2023, fatalities from organized violence decreased for the first time since the rapid increase observed in
2020, dropping from 310,000 in 2022 to 154,000 in 2023. Despite this decline, these figures represent some of the
highest fatality rates recorded since the Rwandan genocide in 1994, surpassed only by those of 2022 and 2021. The
decrease was primarily attributed to the end of the conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, which accounted for about 60%
of battle-related deaths in both 2022 and 2021. Despite this positive development, the number of active state-based
armed conflicts increased by three in 2023, reaching the highest level ever recorded by the UCDP, totaling 59. Non-
state conflicts and one-sided violence decreased in 2023 when compared to 2022, evident in both the reduction of the
active conflicts/actors and the decrease in fatalities attributed to these forms of violence. However, despite this overall
decrease, fatalities resulting from non-state conflicts remained at historically high levels in 2023. Analysis of non-state
conflict data spanning the past decade reveals that it comprises the ten most violent years on record. Organized crime
groups have predominantly fueled this escalation. Unlike rebel groups, organized crime groups typically lack political
goals and are primarily motivated by economic gain. Conflicts between these groups tend to intensify around drug
smuggling routes and in urban areas, driven by shifts in alliances and leadership dynamics among the actors.
Keywords
armed conflict, conflict data, non-state conflict, one-sided violence, organized criminal groups
Corresponding author:
therese.pettersson@pcr.uu.se
1262912JPR0010.1177/00223433241262912Journal of Peace ResearchDavies et al.
research-article2024
Special Data Feature
674 journal of P R 61(4)
and the interstate conflict between Russia and Ukraine,
witnessed substantially diminished fatality rates in 2023.
This article presents trends in the three types of organ-
ized violence with an emphasis on 2023, beginning with
a section on the trends in state-based violence, followed
by sections on non-state and one-sided violence, respec-
tively. The final section examines a particular type of actor
that has fueled the past decade’s extraordinarily high levels
of non-state violence while remaining relatively under-
studied in the field of peace and conflict research, namely
organized crime groups.
State-based armed conflict
Fatalities in state-based armed conflicts decreased mark-
edly from 2022, yet remain at some of the highest levels
recorded by the UCDP in the post-1989 period. In
total, UCDP recorded over 122,500 battle-related
deaths in 2023, less than half the nearly 277,000 fatali-
ties documented in 2022. Despite this decline, 2023
marked the third deadliest year recorded by the UCDP
since 1989, trailing only 2022 and 2021. The decrease
can largely be attributed to the resolution of the conflict
in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, which accounted for approx-
imately 60% of the battle-related deaths in both 2022
and 2021. Consequently, Ethiopia witnessed about
161,000 fewer state-based fatalities in 2023 compared
to the previous year. Fatality figures from Ethiopia have
been significantly revised upwards for all years from
2020 onwards, based on new information on admitted
losses provided by some of the warring parties them-
selves post-conflict. Specifically, fatality figures for the
conflict between the government of Ethiopia and TPLF
(Tigray People’s Liberation Front) have been revised
upwards by around 62,000 in 2022, 115,000 in 2021,
and 19,000 in 2020. Ukraine replaced Ethiopia as the
world’s deadliest conflict in 2023, with nearly 71,000
fatalities recorded. The conflict between Israel and
Hamas, which flared up in early October 2023, caused
the second-highest number of battle-related deaths with
over 22,000 fatalities recorded during only the last three
months of the year.
Despite the reduction in fatalities, the number of
state-based armed conflicts rose from 56 in 2022 to 59
in 2023, marking the highest number ever recorded by
the UCDP since the data collection’s starting point in
1946.2 State-based armed conflicts have remained at his-
torically high levels since 2015, with an annual tally
ranging from 52 to 56. This can be compared to the 31
to 39 conflicts recorded annually between 2000 and
2013. While most conflicts are relatively minor, their
sheer number increases the risk of significant flare-ups,
of which we have seen several in recent years. In 2023,
UCDP recorded nine wars, meaning that the conflicts
resulted in at least 1,000 battle-related deaths during the
year. This is one more than in 2022, and the highest
count since 2017.3 Of these nine wars, five occurred in
Africa, two in the Middle East, and one each in Asia and
Europe. Regional conflict trends will be explored further
below, after which current trends in the different types
of state-based armed conflict will be discussed.
As seen in Figure 2, violence drastically decreased in
Africa and, to a lesser extent, in Europe. This reduction
can be attributed primarily to the end of the conflict
Figure 1. Fatalities in organized violence by type of violence, 1989–2023.
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