People, Place and the Economic Theory of Voting: The 1992 British General Election
| Author | R J Johnston,C J Pattie |
| Date | 01 February 1995 |
| Published date | 01 February 1995 |
| DOI | 10.1111/j.1467-9256.1995.tb00015.x |
| Subject Matter | Article |
Politics
(1995)
15(1)
pp.
9-17
People, Place and the
Economic
Theory
of
Voting: the
1992
British
General Election
R
I
Johnston
and
C
J
Pattie
Much recent research
on
voting patterns in
Great Britain has shown that economic con-
cerns strongly influence many electors: those
who are optimistic about their own and the
county’s future are more likely
to
support
the incumbent government than are pessi-
mists. me last two decades have also seen
greater spatial polarisation of the British elec-
torate, with Labour becoming relatively
stronger
in
the north and Conservatives
in
the south.
7%
paper provides the
Jirst
direct
evidence
from
survq
data linking spatial
polarisation
to
electors’ evaluation of trends
in
regional economies. Voters who felt that
their own and their region’s economic situa-
tion had been in relative decline were less
likely to vote Conservative in
1992,
especially
if
they blamed government policy
for
those
conditions.
The ‘economic theory of voting’ has received
much attention in recent years.
It
contends
that voters reward governments which deliver
economic prosperity and punish those which
do not (for an overview
of
recent work, see
Sanders,
1994).
The electoral calculus may be
either
or
both of: egocentric, whereby elec-
tors make
their
voting decisions according
to
their personal economic situation and the
extent
to
which the government
is
held
responsible for
it;
and sociotropic, when the
decisions made relate
to
the voters’ evaluation
of
the general economic situation and gov-
ernment responsibility therewith, irrespective
of
their
personal circumstances.
Various tests
of
this theory using British
data have proved relatively successful at post-
dicting the outcome
of
recent general election
results (Sanders,
1993),
and the outcome of
the
1992
general election was predicted a
full
eighteen months before the event (Sanders,
1991).
The British electorate has apparently
acted rationally according to the politics
of
the pocketbook: since
1979,
the Conservative
party’s electoral performance has been closely
related
to
both ‘objective’ economic indica-
tors (such as interest rates and the rate of
inflation) and ‘subjective’ impressions of per-
sonal and national economic situations (San-
ders and Price,
1994).
The
1980s
were characterised by a major
trend in voting behaviour which produced
much more spatial polarisation of support for
the Conservative and Labour parties.
It
has
been assumed that this geographical variation
in voting patterns (often referred to in short-
K.J.
Johnston,
I
:niversity
of
Ilssex,
C.J. Pattie, University
of
Sheffield.
a
Political Studies Association
1995.
Published by Blackwell Publishers,
108
Cowley Road, Oxford
OX4
IJF,
UK
and
238
Main Street, Cambridge,
MA
02142, USA.
9
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