Performance when misinformation increases with experience

AuthorAmihai Glazer
Published date01 January 2013
Date01 January 2013
DOIhttp://doi.org/10.1177/0951629812448237
Subject MatterArticles
Article
Performance when
misinformation increases with
experience
Journal of Theoretical Politics
25(1) 63–74
©The Author(s) 2012
Reprints and permission:
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DOI:10.1177/0951629812448237
jtp.sagepub.com
Amihai Glazer
Department of Economics, University of California, Irvine, California, USA
Abstract
An off‌icial whose experience increases over time may overweight old information when making
decisions. If the state of nature changes over time, the off‌icial’s performance eventually wors-
ens with experience. Though a new off‌icial may initially perform worse than his predecessor,
maximizing average performance requires that off‌icials are regularly replaced.
Keywords
imperfect information; term limits; turnover
1. Introduction
When even the brightest mind in our world has been trained up from childhood in a supersti-
tion of any kind, it will never be possible for that mind, in its maturity, to examine sincerely,
dispassionately,and conscientiously any evidence or any circumstance which shall seem to cast
a doubt upon the validity of that superstition. I doubt if I could do it myself.
–MarkTwain
Good performance often requires that a person’s behavior changes as his environment
changes. But aphorisms (‘You can’t teach an old dog new tricks’ or ‘Generals f‌ight the
last war’) and data (described below) suggest that f‌lexibility declines the longer a person
has served in some position. Perhaps that is one reason President Kennedy said in his
inaugural address: ‘Let the word go forth from this time and place, to friend and foe
alike, that the torch has been passed to a new generation of Americans.’
Consider a congressman’s performance. Data show that the longer he has served,
the less he responds to changes in his constituents’ preferences, with a congressman’s
roll-call voting becoming increasingly ideological over time. Furthermore, congressmen
incompletely change their voting in Congress following a change in their districts caused
Corresponding author:
Amihai Glazer, Department of Economics, University of California, Irvine, California 92697, USA.
Email: aglazer@uci.edu

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