Political mobilization and its impact on voter turnout: A survey experiment in Iraq
| Date | 01 December 2021 |
| Published date | 01 December 2021 |
| DOI | 10.1177/20578911211039631 |
| Subject Matter | Research articles |
Political mobilization and its
impact on voter turnout: A
survey experiment in Iraq
Dai Yamao
Kyushu University, Japan
Shingo Hamanaka
Ryukoku University, Japan
Abstract
This article clarifies how political mobilization affects voter turnout in a post-conflict society
by analyzing the Iraqi case using survey data. Voter turnout was high in post-war Iraq.
However, the voter turnout in the fourth election, held in May 2018, declined by 20 percen-
tage points from the previous one in 2014, mainly because of widespread political distrust due
to corruption among political elites and their embezzlement of public funds, neglect of the
people, and the breakdown of social services after the intensive operation against the so-called
Islamic State (IS). Political mobilization during electoral campaigns usually encourages voters to
go to polling stations. Notwithstanding, amid widespread political distrust in a post-conflict
society, how does political mobilization affect voters’behavior in elections? To answer this
research question, we conducted a survey experiment during the 2018 electoral campaign
to scrutinize the effects of political mobilization on voters in Iraq. Through quantitative ana-
lysis of the survey data, we demonstrated that voters are more likely to refrain from visiting
polling stations if they are mobilized by political parties during a campaign. Thus, political
mobilization discourages voters from participating in elections when there is extensive politi-
cal distrust.
Keywords
election, the Middle East, political participation
Corresponding author:
Shingo Hamanaka, Ryukoku University, 67 Tsukamoto-cho, Fukakusa, Fushimi-ku, Kyoto, 612-8577, Japan.
Email: oshiro@law.ryukoku.ac.jp
Research article
Asian Journal of Comparative Politics
2021, Vol. 6(4) 421–440
© The Author(s) 2021
Article reuse guidelines:
sagepub.com/journals-permissions
DOI: 10.1177/20578911211039631
journals.sagepub.com/home/acp
Introduction
This article aims to clarify the effect of political mobilization during election campaigns where poli-
tical mistrust is widespread in a post-conflict society. Voter turnout in elections after regime
changes, such as democratization or post-conflict periods, tends to be high at first, but then
declines.
1
It is intuitively easy to see that turnout is higher in the first election. This is because,
with the introduction of elections, many political parties engage in vigorous political mobilization
in order to capture as many interests as possible during the state’s formation. Voters are also more
likely to take part in the election as a nation-building process after they have been freed from the
oppression of authoritarian regimes and the hardships of horrific conflict. Hence, high voter turnout
occurs in the first election after regime change. Political mobilization further increases turnout. A
cyclical structure is likely to provide a high voter turnout in such a situation.
Nevertheless, turnout often decreases gradually. Moreover, although political parties continue to
mobilize for elections, voter turnout tends to decline repeatedly. Is this a normal phenomenon? Why
does this happen? What is the relationship between the drop in voter turnout and political mobiliza-
tion by political parties?
In this article, we clarify the relationship between political mobilization and voter participation
through a survey experiment performed in Iraq, which has witnessed severe conflict after regime
change, as a case study. Our reasons for choosing Iraq are as follows: we could observe much
of the political mobilization and high voter turnout in the first election; afterwards, voter turnout
fell while political mobilization was maintained. In other words, Iraq is a typical example of elect-
oral behavior in a post-conflict society.
The invasion of Iraq by the coalition forces of the US and the UK in 2003 (hereafter called the
Iraq War) brought down the Ba’thist regime led by then-President Saddam Hussein. After the war,
various political actors in exile returned to their mother country, and Shiite Islamist organizations
seized power after the parliamentary elections held in 2005. With the exception of the constituent
assembly election held after the Iraq War, each wave of voter turnout in the four parliamentary elec-
tions was 79.6% (2005), 64.3% (2010), 61.8% (2014), and 43.7%, respectively (the fourth election
was held on May 12, 2018). Voter turnout diminished by nearly 20 percentage points in the most
recent election compared to the previous one (Figure 1).
2
Why did the high voter turnout in the first election drop significantly? Did active political mobi-
lization have no effect on getting out the vote? The impact of political mobilization, especially
under widespread political distrust, is one of the main topics in the analysis of Iraqi politics, an
issue we also tackle here. As will be discussed in more detail in the third section, political distrust
in Iraq has been attributed to the government’s lack of performance, exemplified by its failure to
prevent the rise of IS, and to the widespread corruption of politicians and administrators. Thus,
the spread of political distrust is a phenomenon with a long-term time span, while political mobi-
lization is a short-term phenomenon seen just before an election. Detecting the interaction between
the two requires not only a survey just before the election, but also a survey in another year. This
investigation will also help us to explore which factors contribute to reducing voter turnout in
general elections, not only in Iraq but in post-conflict countries in general.
There has been a certain amount of research on individual elections in post-war Iraq.
3
Almost all
the research points out a strong sectarian inclination in terms of both mobilization and the outcomes
of each election (Dawisha, 2010; Dodge, 2020). Mobilization during elections has been conducted
along with ethno-sectarian cleavage; thus, the result of an election corresponds to the ethno-
sectarian proportion (Stansfield, 2007). However, few studies have examined shifts in voter
422 Asian Journal of Comparative Politics 6(4)
To continue reading
Request your trial