Power Shifts and Economic Development: When Will China Overtake the USA?
| Date | 01 November 2003 |
| Published date | 01 November 2003 |
| DOI | 10.1177/00223433030406003 |
| Author | Emilio Casetti |
| Subject Matter | Journal Article |
661
Introduction
In the long run, the power capabilities of
countries large and small are a function of
level of development and population size.
Economic development brings about a surge
in political, economic, and military power.
This surge materializes as a country moves
past its premodern condition, and its magni-
tude depends on the country’s initial size and
on its increase during development. The
economic development of large countries
can propel them to ‘major power’ or ‘super-
power’ status.
A dynamic pattern that historically played
an important role in the rise and fall of the
major powers involves the early attainment
of power supremacy by comparatively small
countries that developed earlier and subse-
quently lost their status to larger countries
that developed later. Cases in point are the
staggered rise in power of the UK, France,
Germany, Italy, and Japan, and their subse-
quent loss of status to the USA and the
USSR. The development of China and, at
some point in the future, of India has the
potential of pushing these countries to super-
power status, while pushing the USA and a
revitalized Russia to substantially lower
© 2003 Journal of Peace Research,
vol. 40, no. 6, 2003, pp. 661–675
Sage Publications (London, Thousand Oaks, CA
and New Delhi) www.sagepublications.com
[0022-3433(200311)40:6; 661–675; 038286]
Power Shifts and Economic Development:
When Will China Overtake the USA?*
EMILIO CASETTI
Department of Geography, Ohio State University
A dynamic pattern that historically played an important role in the rise and fall of the major powers
involves the early attainment of power supremacy by comparatively small countries that developed
earlier and subsequently lost their status to larger countries that developed later. Cases in point are the
staggered rise in power of the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan, and their subsequent loss of status
to the USA and the USSR. The development of China and, at some point in the future, of India has
the potential of pushing these countries to superpower status while pushing the USA and a revitalized
Russia to substantially lower power ranks. If this sequence of events comes to pass, it will fit the same
fundamental dynamics that rendered the USA and the USSR superpowers to begin with. The thesis
that the economic development of large countries can produce power shifts of major consequence is
the focal theme of this article. First, this thesis is discussed in general terms, is related to a number of
literatures from several disciplines, and is validated using an econometric model and empirical data.
Then, the thesis is brought to bear upon the USA/China ‘case’. In this connection, the USA/China
shifts in power capabilities that have occurred during the past 50 years are documented and extrapo-
lated over the 1995–2050 time-horizon. The extrapolations are based on seven projections that span
diverse presuppositions, assumptions, and approaches. The conceptual and analytical generalities, the
empirical analyses, and the forecasts presented suggest the possibility that China will acquire power
superiority over the USA within the next half-century.
*The comments and criticisms of three anonymous referees
are gratefully acknowledged. The data and the Stata and
Matlab scripts used to produce the results presented in this
article can be found at http://www.prio.no/jpr/datasets.asp.
My e-mail address is casetti.1@osu.edu.
68S 03casetti (ds) 3/10/03 1:21 pm Page 661
To continue reading
Request your trial