Preventing successful assassination attacks by terrorists: an environmental criminology approach
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1108/JCRPP-09-2016-0022 |
| Published date | 18 September 2017 |
| Date | 18 September 2017 |
| Pages | 173-191 |
| Author | Marissa Mandala,Joshua D. Freilich |
| Subject Matter | Health & social care,Criminology & forensic psychology |
Preventing successful assassination
attacks by terrorists: an environmental
criminology approach
Marissa Mandala and Joshua D. Freilich
Abstract
Purpose –The purpose of this paper is to use an environmental criminology and situational crime prevention
(SCP) framework to study global assassinations carried out by terrorists. The authors set forth a series of
hypotheses to explain successful and unsuccessful assassination incidents.
Design/methodology/approach –The authors use assassination data from the Global Terrorism Database
from 1970 to 2014 to estimate a series binary logistic regression models.
Findings –Results indicate that various situational factors contribute to successful assassinations, such as
target types, weapon types, total fatalities, and injuries.
Practical implications –These findings suggest that environmental criminology and SCP are valuable in
developing prevention measures that thwart and disrupt attempted assassinations by terrorists.
Originality/value –Criminology has yet to apply environmental criminology and SCP to assassinations, a
tactic often used by terrorists. This paper thus extends the existing assassination, terrorism, and criminology
literature by applying this framework to assassinations performed by terrorists.
Keywords Terrorism, Environmental criminology, Situational crime prevention, Assassination,
Global terrorism database, Political violence
Paper type Research paper
Introduction
This paper applies environmental criminology and situational crime prevention (SCP) to
assassinations performed by terrorists. We investigate a series of hypotheses to account for
whether an assassination was successful (i.e. the target was killed) or not. In June 1914,
Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne, planned a visit to Sarajevo,
the Bosnian capital. Despite having received several warnings of the danger that existed
in Sarajevo and having been urged by the Emperor and his chamberlain to cancel the trip,
the Archduke refused to postpone the visit (Lebow, 2000). On the morning of June 28, the
Archduke arrived in Sarajevo and was driving to the Town Hall when a Serbian nationalist threw a
grenade at his car. The bomb missed the Archduke’s car and exploded nearby, injuring two
officers in the following car along with some bystanders. After the explosion, the Archduke
insisted on continuing his visit (Lebow, 2000). During his return from the Town Hall, Gavrilo
Princip, a member of the Serbian nationalist group known as the Black Hand, emerged from the
crowd and fired on the Archduke and his wife in their vehicle, killing them instantly (Levinson,
2005; Bogosian, 2015).
In the days following the attack, the impact of the event was seen in newspapers throughout the
world. The British newspaper, The Morning Post, declared that the assassination of the
Archduke was an act of aggression that “was to serve as a pretext for the assassination of a
nation”(Watt, 1971, p. 246). Historians maintain that the Archduke’s assassination was the
single event that triggered the First World War (Lebow, 2000). The murder of the Archduke
illustrates how one assassination event can change history. Given the unique effect that an
Received 29 September 2016
Revised 22 March 2017
Accepted 26 April 2017
This research was supported by
the Office of University Programs
Science and Technology
Directorate of the US Department
of Homeland Security through the
Center for the Study of Terrorism
and Behavior (CSTAB –Center
Lead) Grant made to the START
Consortium (Grant # 2012-ST-61-
CS0001). The views and
conclusions contained in this
document are those of the authors
and should not be interpreted as
necessarily representing the official
policies, either expressed or
implied, of the US Department of
Homeland Security, or START.
Marissa Mandala is a PhD
Candidate at the John Jay
College of Criminal Justice, City
University of New York
Graduate Center, New York,
New York, USA.
Joshua D. Freilich is a
Professor at the Department of
Criminal Justice, John Jay
College of Criminal Justice, City
University of New York
Graduate Center, New York,
New York, USA.
DOI 10.1108/JCRPP-09-2016-0022 VOL. 3 NO. 3 2017, pp.173-191, © Emerald Publishing Limited, ISSN 2056-3841
j
JOURNAL OF CRIMINOLOGICAL RESEARCH, POLICY AND PRACTICE
j
PAGE173
assassination can have, it is important to examine the phenomenon to develop measures to
thwart these attacks. The branch of criminology known as environmental criminology, along with
the SCP approach, appears to be well suited for this task.
Environmental criminology calls for analyzing the environment to reveal factors that facilitate the
commission of a specific crime (Wortley and Mazerolle, 2008). Environmental criminology informs
the SCP approach. This approach maintains that situational measures that reduce opportunities
can be identified and implemented to prevent a specific crime from occurring (Clarke, 2008).
Given that criminologists have successfully examined terrorism through the lens of environmental
criminology and SCP (Clarke and Newman, 2006; Freilich and Newman, 2009), it is surprising
that criminology has yet to apply this framework to assassinations, a tactic often used by
terrorists. This paper therefore fills a gap in the existing assassination, terrorism, and criminology
literature by applying SCP to assassinations conducted by terrorists.
This paper begins by defining assassinations. Next, we provide a brief historical background on
the assassination tactic as well as an overview of the literature. Third, we review environmental
criminology and SCP and their application to terrorism. We then devise seven hypotheses to
explain successful assassinations. Fourth, we discuss our data, methods, and results.
We conclude by addressing the implications of our findings and how they could be used to devise
policies that prevent assassinations performed by terrorists. We also provide recommendations
for future research.
Defining “assassinations”
This paper uses data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) and adopts its definitions of
terrorism and assassination. The GTD defines an assassination as “an act whose primary
objective is to kill one or more specific, prominent individuals”that is “usually carried out on
persons of some note, such as high-ranking military officers, government officials and celebrities”
(Global Terrorism Database (GTD), 2015, p. 22). The GTD emphasizes that assassinations do not
include attacks on non-specified members of a targeted group.
Assassinations i ncluded in the GTD must align wi th the GTD’s definition of terrorism, defined as
“the threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by a non-state actor to attain a
political, economic, religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation”(p. 8).
The GTD’s inclusion cr iteria also requir e that two of the followin g criteria are sati sfied:
“1) The act must be aimed at attaining a political, economic, religious, or social goal, 2) There
must be evidence of an intention to coerc e, intimidate, or co nvey some other mes sage to a
larger audience (o r audiences) than th e immediate victim s, 3) The action must be o utside the
context of legitimate warfare activities”(p. 9). Importantly, the GTD considers an assassination
to be successful when the intended target is killed. If an attack kills others but does not kill the
intended target it is co nsidered unsucc essful.
Assassination background
The term “assassin”is rooted in a fringe Shi’a Muslim terrorist group that operated in Iran and
Syria between 1090 and 1272 (Hoffman, 1995). The sect fought both the Christian Crusaders
and Sunni Muslims to further their political goals (Hassan, 2006; Leiden, 1969; Lewis, 2008).
Some argue that this Ismaili Shi’a sect were some of history’s first terrorists (Lewis, 2008). These
assassins were promised to go to heaven should they die carrying out their attacks, similar to the
“suicidal martyrdom”beliefs of some modern day Islamist terrorist organizations (Hoffman, 1995,
pp. 271-2). The tactic of assassination benefited from advances in weapons technology during
the nineteenth century’s Industrial Revolution. These technological improvements made attacks
easier to carry out and more deadly (Bogosian, 2015). The development of the machine gun,
handgun, and explosives assisted revolutionaries in their use of assassinations to inflict political
change. Weapons such as these helped the People’s Will, a left-wing Russian group,
successfully assassinate Tsar Alexander II in 1881. They also assisted the Bolsheviks in killing
Tsar Nicholas II decades later (Bogosian, 2015).
PAGE174
j
JOURNAL OF CRIMINOLOGICAL RESEARCH, POLICY AND PRACTICE
j
VOL. 3 NO. 3 2017
To continue reading
Request your trial