Real Estate Insights Strategic planning policy post-pandemic: the “Great Land Question”

DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1108/JPIF-03-2021-0026
Published date30 March 2021
Date30 March 2021
Pages249-262
Subject MatterProperty management & built environment,Real estate & property,Property valuation & finance
AuthorJohn Ratcliffe
Real Estate Insights
Strategic planning policy
post-pandemic: the Great
Land Question
John Ratcliffe
The Futures Academy, Maidenhead, UK
Abstract
Purpose This paper aims to explore the case for the radical reform of land policy worldwide. It does so,
however, in the context of present problems posed by the prevailing coronavirus pandemic. It is a strategic
study, not a scientific analysis and is oriented towardsthe field of the built environment in general and the real
estate industry in particular.
Design/methodology/approach Although it draws on concepts of land management long extolled
and covers concerns currently circulating about the prospects for urban planning and property development
post-pandemic, the synthesis is original.
Findings The concluding counsel is that land policy reform, being a component factor of so much of societys
endeavours, should figure far more prominently across the political platforms of the world.
Practical implicationsMost of the material regarding the Great Land Questionis based on findings from
countless strategic foresight studies conducted by the author over the past 25 years and re-assessed in light of
the pandemic. If correct, the practical implications will be significant.
Originality/value This is a review of existing models.
Keywords Pandemic, Forward view, Urban planning, Real estate, Land reform, Strategic plans
Paper type Viewpoint
Editors note: March 2021
The coronavirus pandemic has impacted on all areas of our personal and business lives.
At the time of writing, one year on from the declaration by the World Health Organisation
that COVID-19 was now classed as a global pandemic, the outlook for the next couple of years
is less than certain. Even though immense progress has been made in the last year, especially
with the rollout of vaccines, it is still not clear how the virus will progress and when the
pandemic will be declared over.
From the start, there were always three possible scenarios; cure, treatment or acceptance
or, more likely, a combination of the three. But, at some point, a semblance of normality will
return (just as it did after The Plague and the Spanish flu) and, as always happens after a
major shock to the system, there will be changes and evolutions as the players in the market
reassess what is important and what, as a society, we want our future to be and how it will
affect the real estate profession at all levels of investment, development and management.
Disruptions, aftershocks and opportunities
There are historical moments in humankinds development when the future abruptly
changes direction through crisis. Such points in time are called deep-disruptionsor
bifurcations. Alarmingly, we are experiencing just such a crisis moment now with the
advance of coronavirus, or COVID-19, across the world. This world, as we have known it, is
actually dissolving and ahead lies a New World, the formation of which we can only imagine.
Indeed, in contemplating the prospects going forward a favoured phrase to describe futures
thinkingcomes immediately to mind: Imagine ahead and plan backwards(for example, see
Ratcliffe (2020)).
Strategic
planning policy
post-pandemic
249
The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available on Emerald Insight at:
https://www.emerald.com/insight/1463-578X.htm
Received 15 March 2021
Revised 15 March 2021
Accepted 15 March 2021
Journal of Property Investment &
Finance
Vol. 40 No. 2, 2022
pp. 249-262
© Emerald Publishing Limited
1463-578X
DOI 10.1108/JPIF-03-2021-0026

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