Refugees and Elections: The Effects of Syrians on Voting Behavior in Turkey
| Published date | 01 April 2019 |
| Author | Ali Fisunoğlu,Deniz Ş. Sert |
| Date | 01 April 2019 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/imig.12455 |
Refugees and Elections: The Effects of
Syrians on Voting Behavior in Turkey
Ali Fisuno
glu* and Deniz S
ß. Sert**
ABSTRACT
In the wake of the Syrian civil war, more than three million people have fled to Turkey, which
now hosts the largest refugee population on earth. Making up 4.42 per cent of the total popu-
lation in Turkey as of February 2018, Syrian refugees are nevertheless spread unevenly within
its borders. The ratio of refugees to the local population ranges from as high as 99per cent in
the city of Kilis to as low as 0.05per cent in Sinop. This article presents findings from the
empirical study of the effect of this geographical variation on election outcomes in Turkey,
after the arrival of major refugee populations in 2012. Drawing on a unique subnational data-
set and ordinary least squares (OLS), generalized least squares (GLS), and difference-in-differ-
ences (DiD) regressions, the study compares cities hosting few refugees (control group) with
cities with large refugee populations (treatment group) to determine whether significant differ-
ences in voting patterns emerged. Our findings show a negative, but insignificant, impact on
the incumbent party. The findings have policy implications for Turkey as well as any country
that experiences a considerable flow of refugees.
INTRODUCTION
Syrians escaping from the civil war in Syria first began to flee to Turkey in March 2011. Their
numbers have gradually increased since then, reaching 3.5 million as of February 2018. As a result,
Turkey now hosts the largest refugee population on earth. Syrians in Turkey are under a temporary
protection regime and are thus relatively free to settle across the country; only 7 per cent remain in
camps. The majority live separate but parallel lives amongst the general Turkish population. At the
provincial level, the ratio of Syrians to locals ranges as high as 99 per cent in Kilis (a province
along the Turkish–Syrian border) to as low as 0.05 per cent in Sinop (a province in the Black Sea
region).
Turkey has held three parliamentary elections since 2011: on June 12, 2011, June 7, 2015, and
November 1, 2015. Refugee arrivals at the time of the 2011 elections were minimal. However, by
June 2015 refugees numbered approximately three per cent of the population overall. Furthermore,
in 21 of Turkey’s 81 provinces Syrians were over one per cent of the population. In any country,
we would expect such high numbers of refugees to affect election outcomes, either decreasing
votes for the incumbent party or increasing votes for anti-migrant ones. The electoral successes of
anti-migrant parties in Europe in 2017, such as Alternative for Germany (AfD), the Party for Free-
dom in the Netherlands, and the Freedom Party of Austria (FPOE) are cases in point.
* Carlos III - Juan March Institute of Social Sciences
** Ozyegin University
doi: 10.1111/imig.12455
©2018 The Authors
International Migration ©2018 IOM
International Migration Vol. 57 (2) 2019
ISSN 0020-7985Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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