Repression, backlash, and the duration of protests in Africa
| Published date | 01 January 2025 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231186449 |
| Author | Jacob S Lewis,Brandon Ives |
| Date | 01 January 2025 |
https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433231186449
Journal of Peace Research
2025, Vol. 62(1) 21 –35
© The Author(s) 2023
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DOI: 10.1177/00223433231186449
journals.sagepub.com/home/jpr
1225162JPR0010.1177/00223433231186449Journal of Peace ResearchLewis & Ives
research-article2023
Regular Article
Repression, backlash, and the duration
of protests in Africa
Jacob S Lewis
School of Politics, Philosophy and Public Affairs, Washington State University
Brandon Ives
Department of Political Science and International Relations, Seoul National University
Abstract
This article investigates the relationship between recent repression of protest and the duration of future protests. A
rich scholarship examines how repression impacts dissent, highlighting dissent dimensions such as the number of
future events and violent escalation. Less examined is another dimension of dissent – protest duration. We hypothe-
size that recent repression of protests is pivotal for longer duration of future protest events. Our expectation stems
from a participant type mechanism. Recent repression of protest may generate more societal grievances but also
increase protesting risks. A simultaneous jump in grievances and risks may increase the number of people protesting
who are also risk-acceptant and willing to protest for longer durations. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data
Project data and hierarchal negative binomial models are used to estimate the association between recent repression of
protest and subsequent protest duration. Compared to having none of the most recent three protests repressed,
a protest in a location where the last three protests were repressed has a substantively longer duration. The results are
consistent with the participant type mechanism and existing literature on repression’s heterogeneous effects on
individuals.
Keywords
Africa, backlash, duration, protest, repression
Introduction
On 16 October 2017, a political opposition party, the
National Super Alliance, staged a demonstration in
Kisumu in Eastern Kenya to call for structural changes
in the electoral commission that they believed had pro-
duced a fraudulent and faulty election in August. The
police used repressive tactics against the protesters by
firing tear gas and firing live ammunition, dispersing the
protesters and resulting in a protest of short duration.
However, several days later, on 24 October, protestors
returned to the streets. Once again, the police engaged in
repression; however, rather than dispersing, demonstra-
tors remained mobilized, returning to the streets in Cen-
tral Kisumu for the next three days to protest perceived
election fraud and to send a message to the police.
Amidst the demonstrators, 30 mothers held signs
demanding that the police ‘stop killing our sons.’ In
total, protesters commanded the streets of Kisumu for
four days, weathering renewed police repression.
1
In the first protest event, repression was effective in
terminating the protest event. Yet, in the second protest
event, protestors remained on the street for four days.
The divergent protest responses motivate investigation
into protest duration – and specifically how repressive
tactics may influence subsequent protest duration.
Over the past decade, countries around the world
have witnessed a renaissance of nonviolent protest as a
Corresponding author:
brandonives@snu.ac.kr
1
Vignette produced from the Armed Conflict Location Event Data
(Raleigh et al., 2010).
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