A Return to ‘Normality’? The Next UK General Election
| Published date | 01 December 2023 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1177/20419058231218317 |
| Author | John Curtice |
| Date | 01 December 2023 |
DECEMBER 2023•POLITICAL INSIGHT7
The last election in 2019 was
dominated by Brexit. It was
triggered by a wish to end
the stalemate in the House of
Commons over the withdrawal deal that
the UK had agreed with the European
Union. In the event, over four in five of
those who wanted Britain to leave the
EU voted for a party that backed passing
the withdrawal agreement – with all but
a handful of them voting Conservative.
Equally, over four in five of those who
wished to remain in the UK voted for a
party that was willing to back holding a
second referendum on whether the UK
should leave the EU, though here the vote
was fragmented across a number of parties.
The 2019 election
This focus on Brexit was deeply disruptive
to some of the ‘normal’ patterns of voting
behaviour in Britain. Middle class voters
A Return to
‘Normality’? The Next
UK General Election
Brexit has largely fallen off the political agenda but that does not
mean that Brexit will be unrelated to how people vote at the next
election, writes John Curtice.
have long been more inclined to vote
Conservative, while those in the working
class have been more likely to back
Labour. However, graduates – who are
more likely to be in middle class jobs
– were more likely to back Remain and
thus swung towards Labour. Conversely,
Labour’s traditional base, those in working
class occupations, were more likely to
support Leave and so moved towards the
Conservatives. The voters’ decision to vote
primarily on the issue of Brexit eroded the
traditional link between class and party
support.
For example, according to the NatCen
random probability panel, support for the
© Paul Marriott / Alamy Stock Photo
Political Insight December 2023 BU.indd 7Political Insight December 2023 BU.indd 710/11/2023 11:4010/11/2023 11:40
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