Scenarios for BRICS Evolution in Light of the India–China Conflict
| Published date | 01 September 2021 |
| Author | Mihaela Papa,Raj Verma |
| Date | 01 September 2021 |
| DOI | http://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13010 |
Scenarios for BRICS Evolution in Light of the
India–China Conflict
Mihaela Papa
Tufts University
Raj Verma
Huaqiao University
Abstract
What is the future of the BRICS (Brazil–Russia–India–China–South Africa) group? BRICS has transformed in record time from a
global non-entity into an informal institution that pursues global policy leadership, features extensive policy coordination
among five powerful countries, and creates its own organizations. While BRICS momentum seemed unstoppable, a militarized
dispute between India and China in 2020 raised questions about the group’s future. This contribution concludes the Special
Section by arguing that the BRICS group is not broken. Instead, it faces a range of strategic, geopolitical and operational chal-
lenges: how it addresses them will define its future trajectory and its impact on global governance. This essay analyses the sit-
uation from a conflict resolution perspective while bringing together insights from the five BRICS countries. It conceptualizes
new directions for the BRICS group. Two possible internal conflict management scenarios are outlined: circumventing conflict
and making institutional adjustments. Yet the real test of the group’s resilience is its ability to exert collective leadership and
improve global governance. BRICS’response to COVID-19 and to the challenge of sustainable development offers insights into
the group’s ability to advance community goals.
1.BRICS, interrupted? The future of an unlikely
global governance start-up
Will India–China conflict make or break BRICS? Over the past
decade, the BRICS group has been the prime example of glo-
bal policy entrepreneurship. In contemporary global gover-
nance, proliferation of informal institutions is the new modus
operandi, but only some institutions gain robustness and
evolve over time. Ever since the BRIC group was formally
launched in 2009 (South Africa joined in 2010), India and Chi-
na’s protracted rivalry has been frequently flagged as the very
reason why the group would fail. Yet BRICS clearly ‘made it’as
a global governance start-up: the group has well-established
summitry, extensive functional collaborations, and has dele-
gated authority to the New Development Bank (NDB) and the
Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA). However, achieving
the group’s original goals such as advancing the reform of
international financial institutions, cooperating on jointly rele-
vant policy issues, and working toward a more democratic
and just multi-polar world order requires long-term mobiliza-
tion and commitment (BRIC, 2009).
India–China conflict is not the BRICS group’sfirst road-
block. The group’s internal collaboration difficulties have
been highly visible in its eagerness to diversify the executive
heads of international financial institutions and then failing
to do so. Similarly, many proposed BRICS projects such as
establishing a BRICS undersea cable, a BRICS credit rating
agency, or a free trade agreement never materialized.
Nonetheless, BRICS organizations now appoint their own
executive heads from the BRICS countries, and the group
diverted to areas where it can act together. This India–China
crisis has particularly high stakes because this relationship is
central to BRICS cooperation. Its deterioration not only
affects cooperation on a single issue or initiative, but it has
major implications on trust and socialization within the
group. It also impacts BRICS’evolution as a symbol of multi-
polar consensus building and action.
As essays in this Special Section argue, not even the 2020
Galwan valley clash between India and China leading to
casualties on both sidesafter almost 45 years, can dramati-
cally undermine BRICS. Nonetheless, this crisis illuminates a
range of strategic, geopolitical, and operational challenges
that the group is facing and opens up new directions for its
evolution. This contribution conceptualizes several possible
scenarios for the group’s future trajectory and argues that
the group can thrive only if it focuses on inclusion and inno-
vation in global governance.
Future scenarios can be thought of in two main ways.
First, one needs to examine how BRICS handles the conflict
itself, and second, how BRICS positions itself in global gover-
nance in light of the conflict. In terms of conflict manage-
ment, BRICS can assume a business-as-usual or an
institutional adjustment scenario. Regarding its role in global
governance, BRICS needs to rethink how to exert collective
leadership to better address contemporary policy challenges,
including COVID-19 and sustainable development.
Global Policy (2022) 12:4 doi: 10.1111/1758-5899.13010©2021 The Authors. Global Policy published by Durham University and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, whic h permits use and
distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.
Global Policy Volume 12 . Issue 4 . September 2021539
Special Section Article
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